Lorraine Daston’s scientific contributions

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Publications (11)


Das Reich des Zufalls : Wissen zwischen Wahrscheinlichkeiten, Häufigkeiten und Unschärfen
  • Article

January 1999

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27 Reads

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2 Citations

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Theodore Porter

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[...]

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Lorenz Krüger

The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life.

June 1990

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41 Reads

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123 Citations



The Empire of Chance

April 1989

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44 Reads

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618 Citations

The Empire of Chance tells how quantitative ideas of chance transformed the natural and social sciences, as well as daily life over the last three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact in biology, physics and psychology. Themes recur - determinism, inference, causality, free will, evidence, the shifting meaning of probability - but in dramatically different disciplinary and historical contexts. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centres on how these technical innovations remade our conceptions of nature, mind and society. Written by an interdisciplinary team of historians and philosophers, this readable, lucid account keeps technical material to an absolute minimum. It is aimed not only at specialists in the history and philosophy of science, but also at the general reader and scholars in other disciplines.








Citations (9)


... See Lyon (2014) for an exposition. 5 See Daston (1995), Gigerenzer et al. (1989), Hacking (1975). 6 In Suárez (2013), I took the bother to read carefully through Molière's delightful play Le Malade Imaginaire (Molière, 1673, see particularly the third interlude) and found the actual objection to be quite different. ...

Reference:

The Possibilities in Propensities
The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life.
  • Citing Article
  • June 1990

... The word 'statistics' derives from the same etymological roots as 'state', reflecting the fact that statistics originally referred to facts or knowledge about the state, that could be both quantitative and qualitative (Starr, 1987). Statistics took on their modern meaning and use, that is, quantitative data derived from observations of large populations, in the nineteenth century, as they shed their direct association with the study of the state and came to be associated with increasingly professionalised and quantitative natural and social sciences (Gigerenzer & Swijtink, 1989). Meanwhile, state formation can be defined using Max Weber's concept of the state as a form of human community that successfully claims a monopoly on legitimate physical force within a given territory, typically by ceding authority to a political-administrative organisation that is usually termed government. ...

The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life.
  • Citing Book
  • January 1989

... Failure to do so is rightly judged by the negative term "plagiarism". Third, not long after criticising Marais for quoting Peirce, Pym presents a slide in which he quotes from a book on probabilistic causality (Kruger, Daston, and Heidelberger 1990). The interesting point, from the perspective of multimodal critical discourse analysis (Machin 2013;, is that Pym rhetorically goes further than Marais and Meylaerts and includes a picture of the book on the right-hand side of one of his slides. ...

The probabilistic revolution: Vol. I. Ideas in history.
  • Citing Book
  • January 1987

... Tendo presente que as mutações de linguagem, dos discursos, denotam metamorfoses de atitudes por parte dos seus fautores, nas análises encetadas emergem, como paradigma, os Jogos de Azar 1 . Estes, conquanto fossem uma prática remota em todas as civilizações, só a partir do século XV é que começaram a ser alvo de abordagens matemáticas (TODHUNTER, 1865;DAVID, 1962;HACKING, 1975;STIGLER 1986;GIGERENZER et al., 1989;BERNSTEIN, 1996;FERREIRA et al., 2002). Este novo viés, explicita o intuito de compreensão das distintas possibilidades de ocorrência de um determinado resultado e, por consequência, a intensão de quantificar, medir a incerteza que o perpassava. ...

The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life.
  • Citing Book
  • January 1989

... Quantifications became part of the Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) of states (e.g., the German welfare state), enabling to compute contributions to pension funds and insurances; they served to protocol commercial and demographic activities as well as military assets. Indeed, the word statistics likely originates in states' quest for data, with for instance, the "English Political Arithmetic" (Desrosières, 1998, p. 23) and the German equivalent, "Statistik" (Desrosières, 1998, p. 16) being traceable to the 1600s (for more historical discussion, e.g., Daston, 1995;Krüger et al., 1987;Porter, 1995). 4 Big data is one of the latest reflections of the old proverbial insight 'knowledge is power'-an insight that exists in various forms (e.g., The Bible, Book of Proverbs, 24:5; Hobbes, 1651, Part I-X) and languages (e.g., in German: 'Wissen ist Macht'), 5 but that may gain yet other meanings with the massive digitalization; in the future possibly implying E-governance, digital democracy or the dictatorship of numbers (e.g., Helbing et al., 2017;Marewski & Hoffrage, 2021;O'Neil, 2016). ...

The probabilistic revolution: Vol. I. Ideas in history.
  • Citing Book
  • January 1987

... It is unlikely that we would get something that likely.2 Excellent sources for the history of statistics and the relation across sciences are Stigler[5], Hacking[6], and the various essays collected in Kruger, Daston & Heidelberger[7]. However, my chief source for the relation between thermodynamics and social statistics is Porter[8]. ...

The Probabilistic Revolution, Volumes 1 and 2 and Volume 1; Ideas in History and Volume 2: Ideas in the Sciences
  • Citing Article
  • April 1988

Physics Today

... Pigeons, on the other hand, have little in the way of a social structure, and also tend to perform poorly on a serial-order task (Scarf & Colombo, 2008). Such an idea fits well with the "social complexity" hypothesis which proposes that animals living in large social groups have evolved enhanced cognitive abilities for coping with the complexities of such groups (Bond et al., 2003;Kummer et al., 1997), and those cognitive abilities extend to tasks that tap into similar mechanisms. ...

The social intelligence hypothesis
  • Citing Article

... However, this literature takes modeling for granted and starts from there. 3 Lenhard (2006) provides much more historical and mathematical detail to this argument. 4 For a sample, see Hacking (1965), Gigerenzer et al. (1989), or Lehmann (1993). 5 Examples are principal component analysis for data reduction, see Jolliffe (2002), or support vector machines, see Vapnik (2006). ...

The Empire of Chance
  • Citing Article
  • April 1989

... Only the human race began to explore in an orderly manner the mechanisms and factors that cause the formation of specific thoughts in other people, and to a lesser extent, other animals exhibiting the ability mindreading [Boyd, Richerson 1995]. Understanding mental processes of another person is a very difficult task, not only because of the chaotic nature of the human mind, but also because of the subjective assessments of causality, as well as that people tend to be regarded as an objective which leads to misinterpretation, misclassification of the intentions of others and sometimes even stigmatization of some of the behavior as irrational or unreasonable [Daston, Gigerenzer 1989, ss. 1094-1095. ...

The Problem of Irrationality: Patterns, Thinking, and Cognition.
  • Citing Article
  • July 1989

Science