July 2024
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Autonomous Shuttles (AS) hold promise for enhancing transportation services. However, due to safety and other concerns, most AS deployments have occurred in controlled testing environments, which do not capture the complexity of real-world conditions. While studies worldwide have evaluated user acceptance, ridership impact, and cost efficiency, there is a notable absence of research on the traffic impacts of existing and planned AS deployments. This gap is partly due to limited data available to accurately evaluate and simulate the dynamics of AS and their anticipated impact on measures such as speeds and capacities. To address these issues, our study uses simulation to evaluate the anticipated traffic impacts of deploying AS using real-world data from AS deployment. The research team simulated a real-world signalized arterial considering existing vehicle demand and composition, and used a calibrated Intelligent Driving Model (using AS field data) to evaluate the network performance under various potential deployment scenarios. The study assesses intersection delay, number of stops, average speed, and average number of lane changes. The results indicate that deploying AS in mixed traffic signalized arterials is likely to have a relatively small negative impact on traffic performance. The simulation showed that, for every five conventional buses replaced with five AS, there is an average increase in delay of 0.62 seconds per vehicle, an average increase in number of stops of 0.015 stops per vehicle, a reduction in average speed by 0.72km/hr (0.45mph), and an increase of 0.04 in the number of lane changes per mile. Surprisingly, the analysis showed that the only statistically significant change is that in the number of lane changes; the changes in the remaining performance metrics were not statistically significant.