Leon N. Moses’s research while affiliated with Northwestern University and other places


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Publications (10)


Inventory investment, product cycles, and the imperfectly competitive firm
  • Article

February 1998

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9 Reads

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2 Citations

International Journal of Production Economics

Philip C. Jones

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Leon N. Moses

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We consider a profit-maximizing, imperfectly competitive firm, with downward-sloping demand functions, that can produce multiple products at a single facility. We show that if the firm dedicates production to a single product, both dynamic production, which exploits inventory, and static production, which does not, can be optimal. We also consider sharing the production facility by multiple products. We evaluate the efficiency of scheduling production using simple rotation cycle scheduling, and give a condition for guaranteeing optimality of this scheduling rule. We conclude by studying when dedicated production is preferred over shared production.


TABLE 4 : ESTIMATE OF ACCIDENTS AVERTED BY ROADSIDE INSPECTIONS BY FIRM SIZE CATEGORY
TABLE 7 : DIRECT COSTS AND BENEFITS
TABLE 10 : TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF COMBINATION TRUCK FATAL ACCIDENT RATES
TABLE 11 : NUMBER OF FIRMS REQUIRED TO IMPROVE FOR DIFFERENT MAGNITUDES OF THE DETERRENCE EFFECT
TABLE 12 COSTS AND BENEFITS OF SAFETY PROGRAMS FOR DIFFERENCE MAGNITUDES OF THE DETERRENCE EFFECT
A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF UNITED STATES MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY PROGRAMS
  • Article
  • Full-text available

January 1997

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263 Reads

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25 Citations

ABSTRACT This paper contains a cost-benefit analysis of two federal programs,to improve truck safety. One program involves visits by federal inspectors to the operating bases of firms to investigate safety management practices. A rating system is used to determine whether further visits are necessary, and whether enforcement and educational action are needed. The other program,is a system of roadside inspections to check for compliance with federal safety laws. Vehicles and/or drivers that fail to comply are placed out-of-

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Identifying Dangerous Trucking Firms

June 1996

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18 Reads

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23 Citations

Risk Analysis

The paper develops a statistical procedure for predicting the safety performance of motor carriers based on characteristics of firms and results of two government safety enforcement programs. One program is an audit of management safety practices, and the other is a program to inspect drivers and vehicles at the roadside for compliance with safety regulations. The technique can be used to provide safety regulators with an empirical approach to identify the most dangerous firms and provide a priority list of firms against which educational and enforcement actions should be initiated. The government needs to use such an approach rather than directly observing accident rates because the most dangerous firms are generally small and, despite relatively high accident rates, accidents remain rare events. The technique uses negative-binomial regression procedures on a dataset of 20,000 firms. The definition of poor performance in roadside inspection is based on both the rate of inspections per fleet mile and the average number of violations found during an inspection. This choice was made because selection for inspection has both a random and nonrandom component. The results of the study suggest that both of the government's safety programs help identify the most dangerous firms. The 2.5% of firms that do poorly in both programs have an average accident rate twice that of the mean for all other firms.


The effect of firm characteristics on truck accidents

May 1994

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46 Reads

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68 Citations

Accident Analysis & Prevention

This paper expands an earlier analysis of the effect of firm characteristics and safety practices on truck accident rates. The sample size has been increased from 13,000 to 75,500. Negative binomial regressions are used in preference to the Poisson technique used previously. The current analysis confirms previous results, but provides important new insights into the safety implications of being a private carrier and hauling hazardous materials and the effect of having been in business for many years.


Table 4 : Multiple regression analysis of hazardous materials carriers
CHARACTERISTICS OF MOTOR CARRIERS OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

January 1993

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124 Reads

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6 Citations

ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether trucking firms that haul hazardous materials differ from firms who do not haul these goods. It employs a database of 75,000 federal government safety audits of United States motor carriers. We find that hazardous materials firms are five times larger, in terms of annual fleet miles, than non-hazardous materials haulers, and are more likely to be general commodity carriers. Based on Poisson regression analysis, firms that carry hazardous materials exclusively have an accident rate 11% higher than comparable,firms that do not carry these commodities, and arate of fatalities and serious injuries that is 22% higher. Firms that carry hazardous materials in combination with general freight, have an accident rate that is 18% higher and a fatality and injury rate that is 24% higher. Among hazardous materials carriers, accident rates decline with firm size. Private carriers are safer


Annual License Fees and Other Charges for Road Transportation of Hazardous Materials

January 1993

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13 Reads

In September 1992 the United States Department of Transportation imposed a $300 annual fee on motor carriers of certain kinds of hazardous materials. The revenue raised will be used to pay for training emergency response personnel. Econometric analysis suggests that accident risk varies significantly depending on the size and type of carrier, and the particular hazardous commodity hauled. An improved system of licenses and other charges which takes these factors into account in determining what should be paid by individual carriers would provide greater incentives for safe operation.


Transportation of Hazardous Materials: Issues in Law, Social Science, and Engineering

January 1993

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7 Reads

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10 Citations

Leon N. Moses In June 1991, the Transportation Center at Northwestern University sponsored Hazmat Transport '91: A National Conference on the Transportation of Hazardous Materials and Wastes. The faculty associated with the center were aware that there had been many professional, industrial and government conferences and meetings on the subject. However, they believed that the unique capacity of the Transportation Center to bring together leaders from industry and government, as well as leading scholars from economics, law, engineering, psychology and sociology who have done research on the problems associated with the transportation of hazardous materials and wastes (hazmats), could produce a set of integrated insights and understandings that would go well beyond those of previous conferences. The papers that make up this volume were all delivered at Hazmat Transport '91. From a legislative point of view, they tend to deal with issues associated with the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act of 1975 (HMTA), the original act passed to regulate the transportation of hazardous materials, and the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Safety Act of 1990 (HMTVSA). There were talks and papers presented at the conference that focused on other recent legislation and transportation issues with which HMTUSA does not deal. The conference proceedings volume also had discussions and papers on significant managerial and regulatory issues that could not be included in this volume because of constraints on its size. Therefore, this essay is made up of three parts.


The effectiveness of motor carrier safety audits

November 1992

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30 Reads

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34 Citations

Accident Analysis & Prevention

In 1986 the federal government expanded its program of company inspections for enforcement of motor carrier safety regulations. We find that many parts of these inspections are unrelated to the safety performance of firms. Never the less, reinspection of firms found to be unsatisfactory in a previous inspection does appear to bring about a substantial improvement in their safety performance. However, such firms represent a small fraction of the industry, and the probability of being inspected is very low. Thus, the program does not appear to have resulted in a detectable improvement in the accident rate of the industry.


TABLE 1 . REGRESSION RESULTS ON DUMMY VARIABLE: PILOT BELIEVES AIRLINE SAFETY HAS BEEN GREATLY AFFECTED BY DEREGULATION 
TABLE 2 REGRESSION RESULTS ON THE PERCENTAGE OF PILOTS IN EACH GROUP WHO BELIEVE THAT AIRLINE SAFETY HAS BEEN GREATLY AFFECTED BY DEREGULATION 
TABLE 3 REGRESSION RESULTS ON THE PERCENTAGE OF PILOTS IN EACH GROUP WHO BELIEVE THAT INITIAL TRAINING IS INADEQUATE 
TABLE 4 REGRESSION RESULTS ON THE PERCENTAGE OF PILOTS IN EACH GROUP WHO BELIEVE THAT THE MAINTENANCE / AIRWORTHINESS OF THEIR AIRCRAFT HAS DECLINED 
TABLE 5 REGRESSION RESULTS ON THE PERCENTAGE OF PILOTS IN EACH GROUP WHO BELIEVE THAT THE NEAR MIDAIR COLLISION PROBLEM IS SEVERE 
The Effect of Airline Pilot Characteristics on Perceptions of Job Safety Risks.

December 1989

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457 Reads

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10 Citations

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

In a large cross-sectional sample, commercial airline pilots in the United States were asked for their perceptions of job safety hazards. Regression techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between these perceptions and both the length of tenure of pilots and their specific employer within the industry. The latter is found to have a far more significant impact on risk perception. No evidence is found for a learning curve of job risk with respect to experience. Pilots' assessments of inadequacies in training and aircraft maintenance are found to be significantly related to the financial health of the employer. Copyright 1989 by Kluwer Academic Publishers


TABLE 2
AVIATION DEREGULATION AND SAFETY Theory and Evidence

69 Reads

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24 Citations

The popular press paints a bleak picture of contemporary aviation safety in the United States. The cover stories of Time (12 January 1987), Newsweek (27 July 1987), and Insight (26 October 1987) are of crashes and escalating numbers of near midair collisions, with allegations of improper maintenance. In the minds of the public, these allegations are confirmed by the recent record fines for irregularities imposed on airlines with household names. The popular belief, expressed for example by Nance (1986), is that the root cause is the economic deregulation of the industry in 1978. Deregulation, it is argued, has led to com petitive pressures on air carriers to reduce expenditure on safety-related items, and allowed entry into the market by inexperienced new carriers. In addition many believe that the congestion caused by the greater number of airline flights, occasioned by the substantial rise in demand since deregulation, has led to an increased probability of collision. This paper considers the evidence to date on the validity of these contentions. However, initially we will present a theoretical framework that links economic conditions and the safety performance of firms. This framework allows inferences to be drawn more easily from the various strands of evidence.

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Citations (8)


... Based on this definition there are few studies that address conjoint natech disasters, although there is a wealth of literature on natural disasters (see for example Quarrentelli 1954 Quarrentelli , 1986 Quarrentelli , 1987 Barton 1970; Form and Nosow 1958 ; Drabek 1983; Alexander 1990; Sylves and Waugh 1990; Lindell and Perry 1992, 1997; Burby 1998; Godschalk et al. 1999; Mileti 1999; and Waugh 2000) , and technological diasters (e.g. Greenberg and Cramer 1991; Moses and Lindstrom 1993; Donahue 1994; Rogers 1994; Lindell 1995; Papazoglou and Christou 1997; Greenway 1998, and Christou et al. 1999) as separate events. One of the first studies on the incidence of natech disaster was carried out in the United States by Showalter and Myers (1994). ...

Reference:

State of the art in natech risk management
Transportation of Hazardous Materials: Issues in Law, Social Science, and Engineering
  • Citing Book
  • January 1993

... Several factors contribute to the prevalence of the safety climate in offshore working environments such as those prevalent in the UKCS. Following Moses and Savage (1990) and Rose (1990), we characterise the resultant offshore safety output level S o by the following equation: ...

AVIATION DEREGULATION AND SAFETY Theory and Evidence

... Studies on the accident characteristic of HAZMAT handling business entities mostly estimated models using either data of transport companies or survey data of business entities [22,23]. Poisson regression analysis [22], negative binomial regression analysis [3], and Mann Whitney test [23] were among the methodologies frequently used. ...

CHARACTERISTICS OF MOTOR CARRIERS OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

... Academics have performed motor carrier safety research on myriad topics, to include driver characteristics (i.e., age, career stage ;Campbell 1991;McElroy et al. 1993), drivers' safety attitudes and behaviors (Lueck and Murray 2011;Swartz and Douglas 2009), carrier safety management (Morrow and Crum 2004), safety climate (Huang et al. 2013;Zohar et al. 2014), safety technology adoption (Cantor et al. 2006(Cantor et al. , 2009, and the linkages between regulations (and enforcement) and carrier/driver compliance and safety performance (Chen 2008;Corsi and Fanara 1988;Corsi et al. 2012;Lantz and Loftus 2005;Moses and Savage 1992, 1997Saltzman and Belzer 2002). However, problems with safety compliance will likely continue to exist in the trucking industry (Beilock 1995), and little research has assessed the underlying ethical and decision-making mechanisms that guide truck drivers to operate safely. ...

A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF UNITED STATES MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY PROGRAMS

... Truck safety research has focused on issues as diverse as environmental conditions of the roadway, weather, and traffic density (Corsi, Fanara, & Roberts, 1984); maintenance, age, and ergonomics of the vehicle, and the fatigue, inattention, and age/experience of the driver (Campbell, 1991;Cantor, Corsi, Grimm, & Ozpolat, 2010;Crum & Morrow, 2002;Stutts & Hunter, 2003), driver attitudes, and driver safety behaviors (Douglas & Swartz, 2016a;Kim & Yamashita, 2007;Lueck & Murray, 2011;Swartz & Douglas, 2009), carrier safety management (Corsi, Fanara, & Jarrell, 1988;Mejza, Barnard, Corsi, & Keane, 2003;Mejza & Corsi, 1999;Morrow & Crum, 2004), safety climate (Huang et al., 2013;Zohar, Huang, Lee, & Robertson, 2014), safety technology adoption (Cantor, Corsi, & Grimm, 2006Cantor, Corsi, Grimm, & Singh, 2016), and the impact of driver turnover (Miller, Saldanha, Rungtusanatham, & Knemeyer, 2017). Contextual factors such as carrier size and financial performance as a contributor to safety performance (Bruning, 1989;Cantor et al., 2016;Miller & Saldanha, 2016), and the effect of motor-carrier industry segment (e.g., general freight vs. private; short haul vs. long haul) on environmental exposure to risk and safety performance (Moses & Savage, 1996), have also been identified as important considerations. Theoretical models suggest that the subsystem of driver and vehicle interacts with the environment, resulting in judgments and decisions, behaviors, and outcomes. ...

Identifying Dangerous Trucking Firms
  • Citing Article
  • June 1996

... Overall, to balance costs, safety, and societal welfare, researchers argue there needs to be a minimum safety standard and the imposition of penalties for noncompliance (Savage 2011 , and meaningful, consistent enforcement through efforts such as compliance reviews (Chen 2008). Audits can improve the safety standard of the industry, but in order to be effective penalties must be high (when probability of enforcement is small), or the probability of being caught must be high (when the penalty is small; Moses and Savage 1992). Finally, regulators must consider all industry system levels when conducting investigation and enforcement activities (Newnam and Goode 2015). ...

The effect of firm characteristics on truck accidents
  • Citing Article
  • May 1994

Accident Analysis & Prevention

... Although a precise measure of individual or firm risk perception is not an easy task (Anderson et al., 1977), there have been a number of empirical studies estimating risk aversion parameters (Binswanger, 1980;Eggert & Martinsson, 2004) or factors affecting risk perceptions (Moses & Savage, 1989). Binswanger (1980) shows that at high payoff levels, virtually all individuals are moderately risk-averse with little variation according to personal characteristics. ...

The Effect of Airline Pilot Characteristics on Perceptions of Job Safety Risks.

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty