Lei Pan’s research while affiliated with SOAS University of London and other places

We examine the house price convergence across 12 OECD countries over the period 1905–2016. Using novel quantile unit root tests which allow for smooth breaks via a Fourier expansion series, we find that nine countries show the presence of relative house price convergence at all the quantiles. Focusing on several specific quantiles, 11 countries have significant convergence tendencies. Moreover, there are four definite patterns related to shocks in the relative house prices across quantiles.

Extant literature strongly advocate for a backward-integration of tourism expansion into agricultural development so as to spur optimal economic growth among host countries. We empirically investigate the ensuing repercussions of such policy directive on the economic growth potentials of 45 sovereign islands by employing both parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques on a five-year-non-overlapping-averaged annual data spanning from 1980 through 2019. Among others, results from two-step system GMM, and GMM quantile regression techniques, support the fundamental tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). However, agricultural sector development is observed to be significantly detrimental to economic growth, and at all quantiles of the latter. The results further reveal that as sovereign islands attempt to specialise in tourism, the significant detrimental impact of agricultural sector development on economic growth magnifies. These notwithstanding, agric-tourism complementarity is proven to be economically viable as the TLGH is significantly enhanced percussively. The study’s findings hold policy recommendations for the pursuit of agric-tourism, most especially, in the case of sovereign islands across the globe.

How does the increasing expansion in inbound tourism among sovereign islands, amidst relatively static and inadequate non-tradable inputs, impact the production of tradable agricultural commodities? Likewise, does agricultural sector development crowds out tourism expansion in the case of sovereign islands? This study attempts to provide responses to these lacunas in literature by empirically testing the potential bi-causal and non-linear (optimal) relationships between tourism expansion and agricultural sector development among sovereign islands across the globe. Engaging two-step system GMM, and GMM quantile regression techniques, on a five-year-non-overlapping-averaged annual data spanning from 1980 through 2019 for 45 sovereign islands, we document the following: (i) that, at the mean and all quantiles, there exist a statistically significant negative bi-causal relationship between tourism expansion and agricultural sector development; (ii) and that agricultural sector development exerts a significant U-turn impact on tourism expansion, whereas the latter also exerts a significant inverted-U-turn impact on the former. Our observations project the presence of a statistically significant trade-off and a non-linear relationship between tourism expansion and agricultural sector development among sovereign islands across the globe. The study’s findings hold policy implications for the concurrent expansion of these important, yet competing, sectors within the economies of sovereign islands across the globe.

We examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on financial inclusion. To identify the causal effect of FDI on financial inclusion, we use plausibly exogenous source of variations in bilateral investment treaties (BITs) as a novel instrumental variable (IV) for net FDI inflows. Using annual data for a broad panel of 90 countries over the period 2004 to 2017, our results show that FDI improves financial inclusion for both “access to finance" and “use of financial services". This impact is more pronounced for relatively poor countries and developing countries compared to rich and developed countries. We also find that higher financial market development and quality institutions improve financial inclusion directly. Moreover, financial market development and institutional quality can serve as potential channels and moderating variables through which FDI affects financial inclusion. Our results are robust to various estimations and sample splitting and have important implications for policy on financial inclusion.

Existing literature advocate strongly for a backward-integration of tourism development into agriculture so as to spur the needed economic growth. This study attempts to investigate the ensuing repercussions of such policy directives in the case of 45 sovereign islands across the globe by employing both parametric and non-parametric methods. Specifically, engaging two-step system GMM, and GMM quantile regression techniques, on a five-year-non-overlapping annual data spanning from 1980 through 2019, this study investigates: (i) the potential bi-causal relationship between tourism and agricultural developments; (ii) the economic growth implications of agri-tourism policies among global islands. Surprisingly, results from the study reveal the presence of a significant tradeoff between the development of tourism and agriculture among global islands, irrespective of their economic growth status. Results further reveal that attempts to specialise more in tourism magnifies the significant negative impact of agriculture on economic growth. These notwithstanding, the tourism-led-growth hypothesis (TLGH) is enhanced at higher levels of agricultural development among all islands.

The expansion of inbound tourism among global islands, amidst relatively inadequate supporting tradable goods, potentially triggers high merchandise imports, resulting in an indeterminate impact on economic growth. Employing fixed and random effects estimation techniques on five-year-non-overlapping-averaged data, covering 1980 through 2019, this study, firstly, investigates the potential bi-causal relationship between inbound tourism and merchandise imports, in the case of 45 sovereign islands. The economic growth implication of a concurrent pursuit of tourism expansion and merchandise imports is also examined. The study further investigates how over-reliance on imported merchandise to feed international tourists, and over-specialisation in the tourism sector, affect the tourism-led-growth hypothesis in the case of these islands. Results from the study show that an increase in inbound tourism significantly leads to an increase in merchandise imports, and vice versa. Also, importing merchandises to sustain inbound tourism is significantly observed not to be detrimental to economic growth. However, results further reveal that over-reliance on imported merchandises to sustain inbound tourism, as well as over-specialisation in tourism with the help of imported merchandises, both exert significant detrimental net effects on economic growth. The findings hold policy guidelines for the pursuit of tourism-led and merchandise-import-led growth strategies among global islands.

This paper examines the impact of access to electricity on financial development. In doing so, we use a number of instrumental variables (IV) approaches. Using panel data for 38 countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa over the period 2000–2018, the results suggest that more people having access to electricity can promote financial development. In addition, mobile phone and commercial bank branches diffusion serve as potential channels through which access to electricity affects financial development. Our results are robust to sample‐splitting and different estimation techniques. The results have important implications for policies in overcoming barriers to electricity access.

This paper examines the tourism markets’ convergence hypothesis across South Korea’s major source markets. In doing so, we use monthly data of visitor arrivals over the period July 1995 to June 2019 and adopt a novel quantile unit root tests that allows for multiple structural breaks via a Fourier expansion series. Our results indicate that seven countries out of 10 show firm convergence tendencies at most of the quantiles, and two countries have weak but significant converging trends at some quantiles.

This paper examines the causes of falling labour share in OECD and non-OECD countries since the 1980s by using Karabarbounis and Neiman’s (2014) labour share model. While both groups of countries experience an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour, the factors driving down labour share are different. In OECD countries, export and volatility are key drivers, but in non-OECD countries, the significant factors are financial openness and the capital’s relative price. Overall, technological advancement – as reflected by declining capital’s relative price – coupled with globalization and low economic risk are key factors in explaining a long-term decline of labour share worldwide.