Lawrence W. Sheppard's research while affiliated with Marine Biological Association of the UK and other places
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Publications (36)
Spatial synchrony, the tendency for populations across space to show correlated fluctuations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, linked to central topics of ecology such as population cycling, extinction risk, and ecosystem stability. A common mechanism of spatial synchrony is the Moran effect, whereby spatially synchronized environme...
Spatial synchrony, the tendency for populations across space to show correlated fluctuations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, linked to central topics of ecology such as population cycling, extinction risk, and ecosystem stability. A common mechanism of spatial synchrony is the Moran effect, whereby spatially synchronized environme...
Understanding intraspecific variation in habitat use, particularly of long-lived fishes across multiple life history stages, is core to improved conservation management. Here, we present results from a synthesis of acoustic telemetry data for sub-adult and adult white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) from 2010 to 2017 in the San Francisco Estuary...
Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet stati...
Understanding movement patterns of anadromous fishes is critical to conservation and management of declining wild populations and preservation of habitats. Yet, the duration of observations for individual animals can constrain accurate descriptions of movements. In this study, we synthesized over a decade (2006–2018) of acoustic telemetry tracking...
The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes ) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the w...
Spatial synchrony may be tail‐dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice‐versa. Here, ‘tail‐dependent’ follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of a...
Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combin...
Background
Understanding movement patterns of anadromous fishes is critical to conservation management of declining wild populations and preservation of habitats. Yet, infrequent observations of individual animals fundamentally constrain accurate descriptions of movement dynamics.
Methods
In this study, we synthesized over a decade (2006–2018) of...
Understanding the processes that stabilize species populations is a fundamental question in ecology and central to conservation biology. In metapopulations, dispersal can act as a ‘double edged' sword for species stability by simultaneously decreasing local population variability (thereby decreasing local extinction risk) while increasing spatial s...
The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, the largest impacts of climate change on dengue might be in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has...
Population cycles are fundamentally linked with spatial synchrony, the prevailing paradigm being that populations with cyclic dynamics are easily synchronised. That is, population cycles help give rise to spatial synchrony. Here we demonstrate this process can work in reverse, with synchrony causing population cycles. We show that timescale‐specifi...
Standard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associ...
Fluctuations in population abundances are often correlated through time across multiple locations, a phenomenon known as spatial synchrony. Spatial synchrony can exhibit complex spatial structures, termed ‘geographies of synchrony’, that can reveal mechanisms underlying population fluctuations. However, most studies have focused on spatial extents...
Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change. Furthermore, there is reason to believe ECEs may modify "tail associations" between distinct population vital rates, or between values of an environmental variable measured in different locations. "Tail associations" between two variables are associati...
Understanding the mechanisms governing ecological stability—why a property such as primary productivity is stable in some communities and variable in others—has long been a focus of ecology. Compensatory dynamics, in which anti‐synchronous fluctuations between populations buffer against fluctuations at the community level, are a key theoretical mec...
• Periodical cicadas exhibit an extraordinary capacity for self‐organizing spatially synchronous breeding behavior. The regular emergence of periodical cicada broods across the United States is a phenomenon of longstanding public and scientific interest, as the cicadas of each brood emerge in huge numbers and briefly dominate their ecosystem. Durin...
All branches of ecology study relationships among and between environmental and biological variables. However, standard approaches to studying such relationships, based on correlation and regression, provide only some of the complex information contained in the relationships. Other statistical approaches exist that provide a complete description of...
1. Spatial synchrony, the tendency for temporal population fluctuations to be correlated across multiple locations at regional scales, is common and contributes to the severity of outbreaks and epidemics, but is little studied in agricultural pests.
2. This study analysed spatial synchrony from 1974 to 2008 in 16 lepidopteran agricultural pests in...
Understanding the mechanisms governing ecological stability - why a property such as primary productivity is stable in some communities and variable in others - has long been a focus of ecology. Compensatory dynamics, in which anti-synchronous fluctuations between populations buffer against fluctuations at the community level, is a key theoretical...
All branches of ecology study relationships among environmental and biological variables. However, ubiquitously used approaches to studying such relationships, based on correlation and regression, provide only a small slice of the complex information contained in the relationships. Other statistical approaches exist that provide a complete descript...
Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic...
Taylor's law (TL), a commonly observed and applied pattern in ecology, describes variances of population densities as related to mean densities via log(variance) = log( a ) + b *log(mean). Variations among datasets in the slope, b , have been associated with multiple factors of central importance in ecology, including strength of competitive intera...
Spatial synchrony is defined by related fluctuations through time in population abundances measured at different locations. The degree of relatedness typically declines with increasing distance between sampling locations. Standard approaches for assessing synchrony assume isotropy in space and uniformity across timescales of analysis, but it is now...
Taylor's law (TL) is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates the variances to the means of groups of nonnegative measurements via an approximate power law: variance
g
≈ a [Formula: see text] mean
g
b
, where g indexes the group of measurements. When each group of measurements is distributed in space, the exponent b of this power law is...
Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locatio...
Background. The use of wavelet coherence methods enables the identification of frequency-dependent relationships between the phases of the fluctuations found in complex systems such as medical and other biological timeseries. These relationships may illuminate the causal mechanisms that relate the variables under investigation. However, computation...
During the 1980s the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer-water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and h...
Spatial synchrony, the tendency of distant populations to fluctuate similarly, is a major concern in ecology(1-8). Except in special circumstances(3,9), researchers historically had difficulty identifying drivers of synchrony in field systems(5,6,10). Perhaps for this reason, the possibility(9,11,12) that changes in large-scale climatic drivers may...
Background/Question/Methods
It is well known that in theory spatially synchronous fluctuations in abundance can result from spatially synchronous fluctuations in the environment: this is known as the Moran effect. The challenge is to identify environmental drivers in real systems and demonstrate the Moran effect in action. Phytoplankton abundance...
Citations
... Macrocystis and other forest-forming kelps are also impacted by ocean waves. Large waves generated by storms dominate the dynamics of abundance and primary production in giant kelps (Reed et al., 2011;Castorani et al., 2022), and interactions between waves and kelps have long inspired interest in the possibility that kelp forests might attenuate wave energy. Anticipated consequences of a changing climate, specifically rising sea levels and increasing storm frequency and severity (IPCC, 2019), have garnered a more recent interest in interactions among coastal vegetative ecosystems and wave energy (Hanley et al., 2020). ...
... There are several complex and mutually interacting factors, that can trigger fish migration, including but are not limited to, the water flow discharge [12], water temperature [13], nutrient limitation [14], environmental heterogeneity or genetic predisposition [15], and social interactions [16]. It is infeasible to fully describe the fish migration mechanism due to a number of random biological phenomena that can affect both inter-and intra-migration events, as suggested in the reported data for diverse case studies [17][18][19][20][21][22]. A concise -but nonetheless sufficiently realistic -stochastic process model is therefore essential for the analysis of fish migration. ...
... The majority of previous dengue projection studies have used dengue presence/absence data or mechanistic models parameterised using theoretical knowledge or laboratory experiments 10,17 . Such approaches are useful for defining the geographic and seasonal limits of transmission but often poorly predict dynamics in endemic countries 22 where incidence is constrained by factors such as immunity and demographics 23 . This has led some studies to suggest that changes in future dengue burden will be driven primarily by population growth in endemic areas rather than environmentally driven changes in risk 17,22 . ...
... Resilience is perhaps best understood if scale-explicit and scale-implicit methods are combined with univariate and multivariate community structural and functional measures commonly used in ecology and indicators of ecological status used in management, including some proposed for riparian ecosystems (Burdon et al., 2020) (Table 1). For example, spatial regimes and resilience studies may consider how the synchrony of ecological patterns and processes over time weakens or strengthens resilience (Bêche et al., 2009;Walter et al., 2022). Molecular techniques increasingly complement biodiversity assessments based on morphology-based taxonomy and have potential to refine, for instance, understanding of a range of reactions to environmental change among species that contribute to the same ecosystem function (i.e. ...
... For instance, due to reduced competition or enhanced facilitation under drought (as predicted by the SGH), plant communities could maintain similar levels of biomass production compared with communities under more favorable conditions [64,65]. In addition, the presence of stressors may trigger compensatory dynamics among species by suppressing the population growth of competitively dominant species, and therefore stabilize overall community diversity and functions [66][67][68]. This leads to community-level hydra effects; namely, that specific stressors jeopardizing individual species conversely increase interspecific asynchrony and hence elevate the stability of the entire community [69,70]. ...
Reference: The Bright Side of Ecological Stressors
... This idea has been examined through the linear tracking window hypothesis proposed by Hsieh and Ohman (2006) and a related concept has been applied to synchrony through the study of ecological "detuning" (Hsieh and Ohman 2006;Haynes et al. 2019). In the GoM and GBk, the relevant timescales of advection and population growth are both on the order of several months, so if advection was the primary driver influencing population dynamics among the basins of the GoM and from WB to NWGBk, we would expect to see lagged seasonal asynchrony with the upstream source subpopulation peaking a few months before the downstream subpopulation and overall synchronous interannual fluctuations Luo et al. 2021). Based on the physical circulation of the GoM, modeling studies (i.e., Lynch et al. 1998;Miller et al. 1998;Li et al. 2006) have shown that individuals from JB can get advected south into GBn and southwest into WB. ...
... The significance of oscillations in DOC include crossing thresholds from enhancement to inhibition of primary production. Timescale-specific (equivalently, frequencyspecific; timescale is 1/frequency) approaches including wavelet analysis can identify and quantify these patterns and improve inference into pattern-generating mechanisms (Sheppard et al. 2016;Anderson et al. 2021). ...
... Payne et al., 2016;Peek et al., 2002). Nonlinear responses to the environment may result in environment dependencies in species asynchrony (Ghosh et al., 2020;Shoemaker et al., 2022). In turn, these can lead to environmentally dependent ecosystem multifunctionality and stability (Morin et al., 2014;Sasaki et al., 2019). ...
Reference: How to measure response diversity
... The remote sensing inversion of VIs in the micro-scale region, similar to the method performed in this study [48] was conducted using UAV and satellite images, and was applied to different terrestrial vegetation types [16]. The methods included random forest regression and object-based image analysis [35], spectral unmixing [35,49], and the use of a vegetation index to upgrade the binary vegetation-vegetation classification from UAV to satellite images [50]. ...
... However, tail dependence in spatial synchrony has been little studied, so its prevalence, mechanisms, and consequences in empirical populations are not yet well understood. In principle, tail-dependent spatial synchrony should have substantial implications for extinction risk (Ghosh et al., 2020c). An ensemble of populations exhibiting stronger interpopulation associations in the upper tails of population distributions will have spatially synchronised population booms, leading to widespread periods of high abundance, but populations exhibiting stronger associations in their lower tails will experience synchronised crashes. ...