Lawrence Ball’s scientific contributions

Species distribution models are used to predict habitat suitability for a species, by quantifying the environmental characteristics which allow a species to occupy a geographical area. The abundance and range of Pine Marten (Martes martes) has declined substantially in Great Britain, with the remaining populations restricted to Scotland. Here, we perform species distribution modelling to determine habitat suitability, and identify potential reintroduction sites, for Pine Marten in Great Britain. Using a global range dataset of 4,189 occurrences, and seven environmental variables, ensemble species distribution models were used to predict habitat suitability across Europe at 1 km resolution and Great Britain at 100 m resolution. High habitat suitability was identified across substantial areas in the South East, East of England and South West, with pockets of suitable habitat along the West Coast of Britain. The results indicate that elevation and land cover are important drivers of suitability.

An account of the changing fortunes of Kent’s species and habitats, the pressures nature has faced and the conservation efforts undertaken over the last 10 years.

In recent years, scientists and the media have drawn attention to global declines in insect abundance, the consequences of which are potentially catastrophic. Invertebrates are critical to ecosystem functions and services, and without them, life on earth would collapse. However, there has been insufficient data to make robust conclusions about trends in insect abundance in the UK, because standardised insect sampling approaches are not widely applied to all insect groups or at a national scale. Here, we demonstrate the use of an innovative and scalable invertebrate sampling technique conducted by citizen scientists, to examine the difference in invertebrate abundance in the UK over a 17-year timeframe. The 'windscreen phenomenon' is a term given to the anecdotal observation that people tend to find fewer insects squashed on the windscreens of their cars now, compared to in the past. This observation has been ascribed to major declines in insect abundance. In this study, citizen scientists were asked to record the numbers of squashed insects and other invertebrates on their vehicle number plates following a journey, having first removed any residual insects sampled on previous journeys. We compared the number of insects sampled by vehicles in 2019 (n = 599 journeys in Kent) and 2021 (n = 3,348 journeys nationwide) with the results of a nationwide survey using this methodology led by the RSPB ('Big Bug Count') in 2004 (n = 14,466 journeys). The results show that the number of insects sampled on vehicle number plates in the UK decreased by 58.5% between 2004 and 2021, and that these differences were statistically significant. A comparison of the 2004 national data with the 2019 data from Kent showed a 53.7% decrease. The greatest decreases in splat rate between 2004 and 2021 occurred in England (65%) whilst journeys in Scotland recorded a comparably smaller decrease (27.9%), with intermediate decreases in Wales (55%). These results are consistent with the declining trends in insect populations widely reported by others, and informs a growing requirement for conservation research, policy and practice targeted at invertebrates in the UK. However, our results are based on data with low temporal resolution and consequently we interpret this change between two points in time with caution. Furthermore, inter-annual variation in a range of unmeasured factors, such as wind speed, predation or land-use change, could significantly influence the observed pattern. To draw robust conclusions about long-term trends in insect populations in the UK, scientists require data from multiple years, over long time periods, and over large spatial scales-the Bugs Matter citizen science survey has demonstrated that it has the potential to generate such data.

Landscape-scale conservation is the combined contribution of multiple actions, on multiple sites, and by multiple stakeholders, to the resilience of ecological networks. This results in a complex matrix of interventions and policies in space and time. Monitoring the outcomes of landscape-scale conservation therefore presents significant challenges to the individuals and organisations involved in its delivery. Monitoring of site-scale outcomes is well-established and best practice available and adopted. Landscape-scale monitoring is in its infancy by comparison. The absence of common standards and approaches reflects both the infancy of landscape-scale conservation and the scale and complexity of the challenge. The project sought to address these challenges by consulting widely with a community of conservation practitioners to gather expertise and information on their needs from landscape-scale monitoring. It reviewed and analysed existing landscape-scale monitoring approaches, generated consensus on priorities and principles, and developed partnerships to design and test sustainable monitoring approaches. This informed the development and testing of a monitoring framework and practical approaches to landscape-scale monitoring. The project developed a practical framework structured around a series of logical steps to inform the creation of monitoring objectives and programmes. This framework signposts guidance, outputs and case studies developed by the project. Guidance is offered around defining landscape parameters, key attributes of monitoring programmes, landscape monitoring themes, priority themes and questions for landscape-scale monitoring to address, defining and articulating monitoring objectives, and criteria for selecting landscape indicator species.