L.A. Kesheva’s research while affiliated with The Mountain Institute and other places

The object of the study is the North Caucasus region, rich in varied natural landscapes and characterized by climatic diversity. The study aims to analyze changes in the temperature and precipitation regimes in the foothill zone of the region. According to the data of 6 weather stations: Buynaksk, Vladikavkaz, Kislovodsk, Nalchik, Stavropol, and Cherkessk, we carried out an analysis of the temperature regime for the period 1961–2022, which showed that the average annual temperatures in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus in this period were positive and fluctuated from 8.3°С at the Kislovodsk weather station to 10.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station. At the beginning of the 21st century (2001–2022), the average annual air temperature increased and amounted to 9.2°С at the Kislovodsk weather station and 11.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station, which is statistically significantly higher than in the period 1961–2000, when the average annual temperature was 7.8°C and 10.0°C, respectively. Average annual temperature anomalies were calculated for the entire observation period. The largest deviation from the norm was recorded in 2010, due to the high anomaly in summer (+3.7°C). To assess the trend in the temperature regime changes, linear trends were constructed for the entire period of 1961–2022 and two sub-periods. The analysis showed that in the period 1961–2022, exclusively positive trends were observed, while in the sub-periods, negative trends in temperature change were also evident, where March was especially prominent, with negative values of the linear trend at all the stations in the foothill zone at the beginning of the present century. An analysis of seasonal and annual precipitation for the period 1961–2022 showed that, on average, in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus region, the long-term annual precipitation amounted to 637 mm. The calculation of linear trends in annual precipitation totals showed that the change in the precipitation regime was not uniform, there were both positive and negative trends, mostly statistically insignificant.

A sinusoidal model of the dynamics of mudflow series, temperature and precipitation in the warm seasons in the high-mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria complements the previously obtained statisti­cal analysis of the average characteristics of the series, results of a comparative analysis of their average values for two subperiods (base 1953-1983 and modern 1984-2015), improves the quality of the unidirectional regression model of the number of mudflows and meteorological parameters over the past 60 years. The article shows that the use of the sinusoidal regression function makes it possible to identify the cyclicity of time series, which will help in assessing the dynamics of mudflows taking into account long-term changes in climate variables. The increased efficiency of the models is confirmed by the criteria. The coefficient of determination R2, determined for lin­ear regression models, increases in sinusoidal regression models: for series with the number of mudflows from R2 = 0.067 to R2 = 0.645, for precipitation from R2 = 0.028 to R2 = 0.653, for temperatures from R2 = 0.012 to R2 = 0.829. In the sinusoidal regression model, using eight harmonics, short-period ripples are added against the back­ground of slow changes. In the series with mudflows, these are short periods from T = 2.4 years to T = 10.7 years against the background of the main period T = 62 years. In the series of temperatures there are short periods from T = 1.9 years to T = 5.2 years to a long period T = 63 years. In the series with precipitation, a long period T = 20.1 years is added to the short periods from T = 2.2 years to T = 8.7 years. The identified long-period fluctuations in mudflows and temperatures (T = 62 years, 63 years) are associated with significant and nonlin­ear changes in the elements of these series during the period under study. In contrast to these series, the precipitation series is dominated by short-period changes (T = 4 years) against a background of slow fluctuations with a period of T = 20.1 years.

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.

The problems of adaptation of the regional agricultural production to climate change are discussed. It is noted that for this level it is more appropriate to consider the problem for the agroindustrial complex as a whole, i. e., for the “agriculture-processing industry” system. The formulations of the goals and tasks of the adaptation of the mentioned system to climate change are given, the concept of the adaptation interval is introduced. The methods and results of solving the problems of formation and coordination of target indicators of the agroindustrial complex and determination of the trajectory of its development in the adaptation interval are described.

Introduction. The article analyzes the changes in moisture content of the soil in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) associated with climate warming. It is shown that both in the foothill and steppe climatic zones there is a tendency to decrease this parameter, which greatly increases the relevance of developing methods to reduce risks in agriculture associated with droughts. A model based on different vulnerability of agricultural crops to this dangerous weather phenomenon is presented, the results of model calculations for the conditions of the steppe zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) are presented. Materials and research methods. When conducting research, the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient was used as an indicator characterizing the moisture content of the soil. The values of this coefficient were calculated using data from 13 weather stations on the amount of precipitation and air temperature for 1961-2018. The development of a risk reduction model in this paper is considered within the framework of decision theory. As a target in the problem, you can use a function that describes the gain or loss of agriculture. Using this method of choosing an action to reduce risks avoids the formation of a set of actions from which it is necessary to choose the most appropriate one. Research results and their discussion. The results of the calculations carried out in the work showed that the consequence of climate change in the south of the EPR will be a significant deterioration in the conditions for the production of agricultural products. The consequences of such a trend will be extremely negative for agricultural production in the area. As a result of solving the problem, it is possible to determine the optimal structure of crop production from the point of view of the criterion used, taking into account the probability of droughts. As such a criterion, the maximum expected volume of crop production was used, taking into account the impact of droughts. Conclusions. A method has been proposed to reduce the losses of agriculture from droughts, taking into account their different vulnerability to various crops. The model was written in the framework of linear programming, which makes it possible to determine the optimal structure of agricultural production in terms of the criterion used. The method can be used in regions with different production and economic conditions.

An analysis of changes in the conditions for the production of agricultural crops in the foothill and lowland climatic zones of the North Caucasus was carried out. For this purpose, the values of the hydrothermal moisture coefficient of Selyaninov were determined for the period of time 1961-2022. It is shown that throughout the entire territory of this region, which plays a significant role in ensuring the country’s food security, there is a decrease in the values of the moisture coefficient. According to the results of the analysis, this trend is due to a decrease in moisture content in the soil due to rising temperatures (the amount of precipitation remains virtually unchanged). Some approaches to reducing agricultural losses from these factors are discussed. One method for reducing agricultural losses from droughts is outlined. It is based on the fact that vulnerability to this natural phenomenon is different for different crops. The results of model calculations carried out to analyze the effectiveness of the method are presented.

The results of an analysis of changes in the conditions of agricultural crop production in the flat zone of the south of the ETR are presented. For this purpose, the results of calculations of the hydrothermal moisture coefficient of Selyaninov in the interval 1961-2022 were used. It has been shown that there is a steady decrease in the moisture coefficient. The problems of reducing agricultural losses associated with deteriorating soil moisture availability are discussed. One approach to solving this problem is to adapt agricultural production to climate change. It is noted that at the regional level it is more appropriate to consider the problem of adaptation for the agro-industrial complex as a whole. The formulation of adaptation goals and objectives of the adaptation plan for the specified sector of the economy to climate change is provided.