L. M. Fedchenko’s research while affiliated with The Mountain Institute and other places

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Publications (19)


Debris flow processes on lateral moraines of mountain glaciers (analytical review)
  • Article

August 2024

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10 Reads

M. Yu. Bekkiev

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M. Ch. Zalikhanov

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[...]

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A. R. Akaev

As a result of climate change there have been high rates of degradation of mountain glaciers in recent years. During deglaciation in the territories previously occupied by glaciers, moraines of various morphogenetic types remain deposited by them, connected with massifs of glacial-colluvial and other deposits. The most actively involved in debris flow processes are massifs of terminal moraines with extended steep ledges, on which debris flow cuts and furrows develop. Much less often, debris flow original sites are formed on lateral moraines, but debris flows can reach catastrophic proportions. The analysis of publications and of multi-time satellite images revealed data on the formation of debris flow original sites of various types in the areas of lateral moraines of mountain glaciers, pockets of lateral moraines filled with slope and glacial deposits, as well as lakes and streams inside them. Similar debris flow original sites have been characterized for the Central Caucasus, the Andes, the Hindu Kush, the Himalayas and Tibet. The largest debris flow disasters with original sites in areas of lateral moraines were outbursts of Palcacocha lakes in Peru in 1941 and Chorabari in India in 2013 with a death toll of up to 6054, as well as the outburst of South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim (India) in 2023. In areas of lateral moraines of valley glaciers connected with moraine pedestals of former tributary glaciers, the volume of mass transport of debris flows can reach 6.5 million m3 (lateral moraine of the Gangotri glacier in the Himalayas in 2017). The progress of debris flow processes on lateral moraines of mountain glaciers must be taken into account when developing mountain territories both in areas near lateral moraines and at a considerable distance from them.


CHANGES IN THE MAIN CLIMATIC INDICATORS IN THE FOOTHILL ZONE OF THE NORTH CAUCASUS OVER THE PERIOD 1961–2022

January 2024

Географический вестник = Geographical bulletin

The object of the study is the North Caucasus region, rich in varied natural landscapes and characterized by climatic diversity. The study aims to analyze changes in the temperature and precipitation regimes in the foothill zone of the region. According to the data of 6 weather stations: Buynaksk, Vladikavkaz, Kislovodsk, Nalchik, Stavropol, and Cherkessk, we carried out an analysis of the temperature regime for the period 1961–2022, which showed that the average annual temperatures in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus in this period were positive and fluctuated from 8.3°С at the Kislovodsk weather station to 10.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station. At the beginning of the 21st century (2001–2022), the average annual air temperature increased and amounted to 9.2°С at the Kislovodsk weather station and 11.6°С at the Buynaksk weather station, which is statistically significantly higher than in the period 1961–2000, when the average annual temperature was 7.8°C and 10.0°C, respectively. Average annual temperature anomalies were calculated for the entire observation period. The largest deviation from the norm was recorded in 2010, due to the high anomaly in summer (+3.7°C). To assess the trend in the temperature regime changes, linear trends were constructed for the entire period of 1961–2022 and two sub-periods. The analysis showed that in the period 1961–2022, exclusively positive trends were observed, while in the sub-periods, negative trends in temperature change were also evident, where March was especially prominent, with negative values of the linear trend at all the stations in the foothill zone at the beginning of the present century. An analysis of seasonal and annual precipitation for the period 1961–2022 showed that, on average, in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus region, the long-term annual precipitation amounted to 637 mm. The calculation of linear trends in annual precipitation totals showed that the change in the precipitation regime was not uniform, there were both positive and negative trends, mostly statistically insignificant.


Analysis of the dynamics of mudflows amid climate changes in the high mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria

January 2024

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1 Citation

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

The object of the study is a dangerous slope phenomenon (mudflow) in the mountains of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) against the background of changing climatic conditions of the warm season (May-September). The paper presents the results of statistical, frequency and regression analysis of the dynamics of the number of mudflows, precipitation amounts, and average temperatures in the high-mountain zone of the KBR in the period 1953–2015. Statistical analysis of time series was carried out using the SPSS 20.0 software package. Linear trends were generated using Excel built-in LINEST worksheet function. The efficiency (coefficient of determination R2 ) and quality of regression models in general and by parameters were assessed using the Fisher test (F) and their significance (Sig.). The t-test was used to identify statistical equality or inequality of means between two periods. It was found that in the period 1953–2015 there was a slight increase in precipitation and average temperature. When analyzing the statistics of series in two periods 1953–1984 and 1984–2015, it was found that the average and total characteristics of the number of mudflows, precipitation and temperatures increase in the second period. Frequency analysis showed that out of 499 cases of mudflows over 63 years, 32% occurred in 9 cases per season (May-September). Frequency analysis confirmed the homogeneity of the distribution of precipitation amounts: in almost 60% of cases, the precipitation amount varies in a narrow range from 92.7 mm to 104.1 mm. For a number of temperatures, the most common (37%) was the average temperature of the warm season t = 10.2 °C; 31% corresponded to the temperature range from 10.7 °C to 11.8 °C. The analysis allows us to talk about an increase in the frequency of dangerous slope phenomena against the background of modern climate change, including in the high mountains.


Method for Reducing Risks in Agriculture Associated with Droughts, Taking into Account the Probability of Their Occurrence

October 2023

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4 Reads

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1 Citation

UNIVERSITY NEWS NORTH-CAUCASIAN REGION NATURAL SCIENCES SERIES

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.


FORMATION OF A PLAN FOR ADAPTATION OF THE REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO CLIMATE CHANGE: TASKS AND SOLUTION METHODS

October 2023

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1 Citation

Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya

The problems of adaptation of the regional agricultural production to climate change are discussed. It is noted that for this level it is more appropriate to consider the problem for the agroindustrial complex as a whole, i. e., for the “agriculture-processing industry” system. The formulations of the goals and tasks of the adaptation of the mentioned system to climate change are given, the concept of the adaptation interval is introduced. The methods and results of solving the problems of formation and coordination of target indicators of the agroindustrial complex and determination of the trajectory of its development in the adaptation interval are described.



On а Model for Drough Risk Reduction in Agriculture

January 2023

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

Introduction. The article analyzes the changes in moisture content of the soil in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) associated with climate warming. It is shown that both in the foothill and steppe climatic zones there is a tendency to decrease this parameter, which greatly increases the relevance of developing methods to reduce risks in agriculture associated with droughts. A model based on different vulnerability of agricultural crops to this dangerous weather phenomenon is presented, the results of model calculations for the conditions of the steppe zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) are presented. Materials and research methods. When conducting research, the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient was used as an indicator characterizing the moisture content of the soil. The values of this coefficient were calculated using data from 13 weather stations on the amount of precipitation and air temperature for 1961-2018. The development of a risk reduction model in this paper is considered within the framework of decision theory. As a target in the problem, you can use a function that describes the gain or loss of agriculture. Using this method of choosing an action to reduce risks avoids the formation of a set of actions from which it is necessary to choose the most appropriate one. Research results and their discussion. The results of the calculations carried out in the work showed that the consequence of climate change in the south of the EPR will be a significant deterioration in the conditions for the production of agricultural products. The consequences of such a trend will be extremely negative for agricultural production in the area. As a result of solving the problem, it is possible to determine the optimal structure of crop production from the point of view of the criterion used, taking into account the probability of droughts. As such a criterion, the maximum expected volume of crop production was used, taking into account the impact of droughts. Conclusions. A method has been proposed to reduce the losses of agriculture from droughts, taking into account their different vulnerability to various crops. The model was written in the framework of linear programming, which makes it possible to determine the optimal structure of agricultural production in terms of the criterion used. The method can be used in regions with different production and economic conditions.


The Current State of Convective Cloud Physics and Active Effects and the Main Directions of Its Development

December 2022

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6 Reads

The reasons for the slowdown in the development of the convective cloud physics and active influences on them in recent decades are discussed. As the results of the analysis showed are that the present period of time is a transitional one for this scientific direction: there is a transition from the stage of studying “elementary” processes in clouds to the stage of studying the formation and development of clouds as a whole, considering their systemic properties. The main tasks arising at the coming stage of its development are formulated. It is noted that such tasks include aggregating the results of studying “elementary” processes in clouds and studying the role of systemic properties of clouds in the formation of macro- and microstructural characteristics of clouds. The state of research on the development of numerical models of convective clouds, within which the aggregation of “elementary” processes in clouds is carried out, is touched upon. As for the study of the role of the system properties of clouds in the formation of their macro- and microstructural characteristics, the study of the role of the interaction of clouds with the atmosphere surrounding them (the property of the hierarchy of systems) and the interaction of processes in clouds, which are the most important structure-forming factors for clouds, seems to be the most important and difficult task in this area of research. Methods and some results of research in this direction are presented, which confirm the significant role of these factors in the formation and development of clouds, in the formation of their macro- and microstructural characteristics.KeywordsConvective cloud physicsDirections of developmentThe role of system propertiesResearch results


Investigation of the Influence of the Interaction of Convective Clouds With the Surrounding Atmosphere on the Evolution of Their Parameters

December 2022

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15 Reads

The article investigates the role of the cloud system properties based on a comparison of the results of calculations of the formation and development of clouds corresponding to the real and model structures of the wind field in the atmosphere. In this case, the hierarchy property is considered, i.e., the interaction of convective clouds with the surrounding atmosphere, due to the structure of the wind field in the atmosphere. A three-dimensional unsteady model of thunderstorm clouds with a detailed account of microphysical processes was used for the research. The results of numerical experiments are presented in order to study the role of the interaction of convective clouds with the surrounding atmosphere.KeywordsThunderstorm cloudsSystem propertiesRoleHierarchy propertyInteraction of clouds with the surrounding atmosphereThree-dimensional model


POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE EUROPEAN TERRITORY OF RUSSIA
  • Article
  • Full-text available

January 2021

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3 Reads

Успехи современного естествознания (Advances in Current Natural Sciences)

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Citations (4)


... Как известно, модели временных рядов применяются в исследованиях динамики значительного числа реальных процессов различной природы. В статье [6] были определены некоторые количественные характеристики рядов селевых сходов, средней температуры и сумм осадков в высокогорной зоне КБР, построены линейные тренды, характеризующие долговременную изменчивость исследуемых рядов в теплые сезоны 1953-2015 гг. Под долговременной изменчивостью понимается вклад в процесс изменения параметров ряда либо тренда, либо долговременного колебания, то есть колебания с периодом, гораздо больше одного года. ...

Reference:

Sinusoidal regression model for assessment of mudflows dynamics
Analysis of the dynamics of mudflows amid climate changes in the high mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

... Очевидно, что решение этих проблем требует проведения исследований изменений климата и их последствий для различных сфер деятельности, формулировки задач адаптации отраслей экономики к из- УСПЕХИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО ЕСТЕСТВОЗНАНИЯ № 9, 2022   ФИЗИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ (25.00.30)  менениям климата и разработки методов их решения, разработки методов снижения рисков, связанных с экстремальными погодными явлениями и т.д. [12][13][14]. ...

Modeling Risk Reduction in Agriculture Associated with Dangerous Agrometeorological Phenomena

KnE Life Sciences

... Spatially, there was no clear pattern in changes in extreme precipitation indicators across seasons in 1960-2022. In winter, the maximum increase in indicators was observed on the coast of the Caspian Sea, where SDII, Rx1day and Rx5day increased by 0.23 mm/day per decade (Makhachkala), Ashabokov et al. (2018) also demonstrated an increase in annual precipitation in the high-altitude and foothill regions of the North Caucasus from 1961 to 2015, increased at a rate from 1.99 to 21.12 mm/decade. They also reported that this increase occurred mainly due to an increase in precipitation in spring, autumn and, partly, in the winter season (Ashabokov et al. 2018), which is also consistent with the results of our study. ...

Changes of temperature and precipitation regimes in the south of European Russia in 1961 - 2015

MAUSAM

... These defects affect the mechanical properties of structures and materials [1]. In the aviation field, when an aircraft flies through a cloud filled with supercooled droplets [2], abrupt crystallization occurs on local surfaces, such as airfoils, engines, and probes [3,4]. Therefore, from the perspectives of science and engineering, it is important to develop a mathematical theory to describe the dynamics of crystallization. ...

Mathematical modeling of formation of transparency regions in supercooled stratiform clouds and fogs
  • Citing Article
  • April 2018

Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism