Kylee D. Dunham’s research while affiliated with University of Alberta and other places

Conducting assessments to understand the effects of changing environmental conditions on polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) demography has become increasingly important to inform management and conservation. Here, we combined physical (2005–2007) and genetic (2017–2018) mark‐recapture with harvest recovery data (2005–2018) to estimate demographic rates of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation and examine the possible effects of climate, dynamic ice habitat, and prey resources on survival. Large sample sizes (e.g., 2,513 marked animals) allowed us to estimate temporal variation in annual survival rates using multistate mark‐recapture‐recovery models. We did not detect statistically significant effects of climate, ice habitat, and prey during the 13‐year study. Estimated total abundance in 2006 was 2,190, credible interval (CRI) [1,954, 2,454] and 1,944, CRI [1,593, 2,366] in 2018. Geometric mean population growth rate (0.99, 95% CRI [0.97, 1.01]) indicated the subpopulation may have declined slightly between 2006 and 2018. However, we did not detect a declining trend in survival or substantial change in reproductive metrics over this period. Given forecasts of major environmental change we emphasize the need to review monitoring programs for this subpopulation.

Free-ranging cats (Felis catus) are globally distributed invasive carnivores that markedly impact biodiversity. Here, to evaluate the potential threat of cats, we develop a comprehensive global assessment of species consumed by cats. We identify 2,084 species eaten by cats, of which 347 (16.65%) are of conservation concern. Islands contain threefold more species of conservation concern eaten by cats than continents do. Birds, reptiles, and mammals constitute ~90% of species consumed, with insects and amphibians being less frequent. Approximately 9% of known birds, 6% of known mammals, and 4% of known reptile species are identified in cat diets. 97% of species consumed are <5 kg in adult body mass, though much larger species are also eaten. The species accumulation curves are not asymptotic, indicating that our estimates are conservative. Our results demonstrate that cats are extreme generalist predators, which is critical for understanding their impact on ecological systems and developing management solutions.

Population models often require detailed information on sex-, age-, or size-specific abundances, but population monitoring programs cannot always acquire data at the desired resolution. Thus, state uncertainty in monitoring data can potentially limit the demographic resolution of management decisions, which may be particularly problematic for stage-or size-structured species subject to consumptive use. American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; hereafter alligator) have a complex life history characterized by delayed maturity and slow somatic growth, which makes the species particularly sensitive to overharvest. Though alligator populations are subject to recreational harvest throughout their range, the most widely used monitoring method (nightlight surveys) is often unable to obtain size class-specific counts, which limits the ability of managers to evaluate the effects of harvest policies. We constructed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) for alligators in Georgetown County, SC, USA, using records of mark-recapture-recovery, clutch size, harvest, and nightlight survey counts collected locally, and auxiliary information on fecundity, sex ratio, and somatic growth from other studies. We created a multistate mark-recapture-recovery model with six size classes to estimate survival probability, and we linked it to a state-space count model to derive estimates of size class-specific detection probability and abundance. Because we worked from a count dataset in which 60% of the original observations were of unknown size, we treated size class as a latent property of detections and developed a novel observation model to make use of information where size could be partly observed. Detection probability was positively associated with alligator size and water temperature, and negatively influenced by water level. Survival probability was lowest in the smallest size class but was relatively similar among the other five size classes (>0.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.