February 2025
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5 Reads
Energy Economics
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February 2025
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5 Reads
Energy Economics
January 2023
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50 Reads
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4 Citations
International Journal of Political Economy
This article examines the extent to which the latest wave of trade and investment treaties has impacted the fiscal stability of the world’s nations. We construct two new measures of trade liberalization based on the importance of a country in the global network of trade and investment treaties, namely the number of trade treaty links and the hub connectedness of a country. This analysis is important since many analyses of the welfare impacts of trade liberalization typically do not consider the impact on the fiscal balances of governments or assume that any loss of tariff revenue would be made up by the imposition of indirect taxes, like a Value Added Tax. Using a cross-country regression analysis, we confirm that trade liberalization has, on average, reduced the amount of tariff revenue collected. Furthermore, trade liberalization is not correlated with an automatic compensation for lost tariff revenue through other taxation measures. We find, in some cases, that trade and investment treaties are correlated with a reduction in total fiscal revenues and an increase in government debt. These results suggest that policymakers need to take the fiscal impacts of trade and investment liberalization into account when making decisions about trade and investment policy.
January 2023
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27 Reads
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2 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
December 2022
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6 Reads
Global Governance A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations
Promoting stability is a core component of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) surveillance’s mandate. The Covid-19 pandemic hit almost every country worldwide. This article evaluates whether and how the IMF surveillance documents in the aftermath of the health and economic crisis have identified risks and mitigation measures to improve health outcomes, protect vulnerable people and firms, and address climate change. Through the IMF COVID -19 Surveillance Monitor, a textual analysis index, the authors found that these issues received relatively little attention in Article IV consultations in 2019, with fiscal issues dominating the discussion. However, the consultations conducted in 2020 show some timely incremental shifts and more attention toward health systems and protecting vulnerable matters. While climate change has become a key part of senior IMF official narratives, it has not had a significant presence in surveillance activities. The techniques and indices developed here can help the IMF improve its surveillance policy.
October 2022
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155 Reads
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7 Citations
Studies in Comparative International Development
Our paper seeks to evaluate the role of development financing institutions (DFIs) in fostering renewable energy transformations. Whereas the conventional approach to renewable energy finance emphasizes the bankability of individual projects, we advance an alternative approach for the role of DFIs in overcoming system-level constraints to enhance renewable energy transformations. We identify four constraints, namely, the incumbent entrenchment of fossil fuels, unmet energy demand of energy-intensive industries, weak production capacity of renewable energies, and lack of supporting infrastructure. We argue that DFIs can potentially address these constraints by setting a mission-driven vision, acting as honest brokers to overcome the incumbent entrenchment, scaling up renewable energy financing to make the cost of renewable energies more competitive, incubating nascent renewable energies, and financing supporting infrastructure. We then select representative DFIs to evaluate the role of DFIs in fostering renewable energy transformations. We find that most sampled DFIs have recently prioritized financing renewable energy, supported pilot projects to achieve demonstration effects, and made investments in complementary infrastructure. Yet few DFIs have achieved the economies of scale to bring down the renewable energy price or shape the policy environment in favor of renewable energy in a manner that can trigger significant transformational change.
June 2022
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33 Reads
This study deploys new data and examines the combined climate risks−i.e., the combination of facilities’ climate change exposures and climate change impact−of bilaterally-financed global power projects from the world’s three biggest economies: the U.S., China, and Japan. We find a positive association between climate change impacts and climate change exposures across these overseas power projects. Specifically, coal power plants have significantly higher climate change impacts and climate change exposures. Although hydropower projects can have low climate change impacts, they have high climate change exposures compared to most other fuel types. Projects financed by the U.S., China, and Japan have similar climate change impacts and exposures. Greenfield foreign direct investment projects have lower combined climate risks than projects financed by development finance institutions.
April 2022
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67 Reads
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21 Citations
Energy Research & Social Science
China is now one of the world’s largest financiers and investors in the global electric power sector. While a number of important qualitative analyses have examined the determinants of Chinese energy finance, this paper deploys new data to perform the first econometric analysis to examine the determinants of Chinese overseas financing for electric power plants. Drawing on that earlier work, we examine a number of ‘push factors’ –incentives in China that facilitate investment abroad—and ‘pull factors’ –incentives in recipient countries that facilitate Chinese investment into their country. On the push side, we find that domestic overcapacity in China plays a key role in facilitating China’s development finance in these plants. On the pull side, we find that the size of local demand for new power projects and the resource potential for electric power in recipient countries are significantly correlated with the size of Chinese financing. We also find existing Chinese involvement in past power projects likely facilitates new Chinese overseas financing.
April 2022
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83 Reads
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4 Citations
Asian Development Review
In 2021, the United Nations Committee on Development Policy adopted a resolution that Bangladesh would graduate from least developed country (LDC) status after a period of 5 years. This means that in 2026 Bangladesh would have to forego its exemption to intellectual property (IP) provisions of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Bangladesh has taken advantage of the policy space it was granted under the LDC exemption to build a generic medicines industry that not only serves Bangladesh but also other LDCs. We examine how IP provisions in the WTO will impact the price of insulin in Bangladesh and the subsequent impacts on welfare and poverty. We find that LDC graduation will trigger a significant jump in insulin prices that could cause about a 15% decline in the welfare of households in Bangladesh with one or more members living with diabetes, increasing the poverty rate of such households unless policy adjustments are carried out.
April 2022
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51 Reads
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7 Citations
Journal of Globalization and Development
Over the past four decades Bangladesh has built enough domestic productive capacity in the pharmaceuticals and related industries to generate manufacturing capacity and employment to provide access to medicines in the country and to become a modest exporter of medicines as well. This paper traces the role played by government policy in fostering Bangladesh’s burgeoning pharmaceuticals sector and then examines the extent to which such policies would have been permissible under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and the rules of recent trade and investment treaties. Bangladesh has not had to adhere to such rules given its status as a Least Developed Country (LDC) but will face those rules as it may graduate from LDC status in the coming years. We find that a significant amount of Bangladesh’s policies would not have been permitted under the WTO, and even more policy space would be constrained under other regional and bilateral trade and investment treaties. These findings reveal that Bangladesh will face a series of challenges as it graduates from LDC status in its efforts to build its domestic pharmaceutical industry moving forward. Our findings also pinpoint challenges for current WTO and other trade and investment treaty members who now seek to build domestic productive capacity in this sector in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
March 2022
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686 Reads
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40 Citations
This study deploys newly available data to examine the exposure of multinational companies’ overseas investments to physical climate risks. Globally, foreign investments are significantly exposed to lower physical climate risks, compared with local firms across countries. Within countries however, the differences of physical climate risks between foreign and local facilities are small. We also examine China, as it is fast becoming one of the largest sources of outward foreign investment across the globe. We find that foreign direct investment from China is significantly more exposed to water stress, floods, hurricanes and typhoon risks across countries, compared with other foreign facilities. Within host countries however, once again the physical climate risks of Chinese overseas facilities are comparable to those of non-Chinese foreign investments.
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... Whether it limits or expands Latin American opportunities for development is a topic of particularly significant discussion (e.g. Bernal-Meza and Xing, 2020;Bräutigam and Gallagher, 2014;Gallagher and Irwin, 2016;Kaplan, 2016;Ray et al., 2015). One argument posits that Chinese engagement has weakened the straitjacket of the Washington Consensus and increased policy space for Latin American countries (Gallagher, 2016;Kaplan, 2021;Schneider and Teixeira, 2023). ...
January 2017
... building such a framework have recently been applied to the energy transition in Colombia (Godin et al., 2023), climate change-related losses in agricultural output in Tunisia (Yilmaz et al. 2023), broader climate change impacts and adaptation in Vietnam (Espagne et al., 2021), climate stress-testing of the financial sector in the Philippines (Hallegatte et al., 2022), and compound mitigation and climate impact risks in Indonesia (Gourdel et al., 2022). The explicit consideration of finance in climate-related macroeconomic modeling would therefore allow for a more contingent risk and opportunity assessment of the global climate finance architecture (Svartzman et al., 2019). ...
January 2023
SSRN Electronic Journal
... According to Taylor and von Arnim (2006), the majority of CGE models make the following assumptions: (i) fixed or "full" employment of labor and capital is maintained everywhere; (ii) each country's trade surplus (or deficit) remains constant after liberalization; and (iii) completely flexible household taxes that allow each country's internal economy to adjust smoothly. According to Dutt and Gallagher (2022), trade liberalization does not seem to be associated with automatic compensation for lost tariff revenue through other taxation measures in developing countries, and the losses in tariff revenue resulting from trade liberalization are permanent in developing countries as opposed to developed countries. ...
January 2023
International Journal of Political Economy
... For instance, the NDB has been actively funding projects that focus on renewable energy infrastructure and green technologies. These investments are crucial for transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner alternatives on a global scale [27]. In addition to financial investments, policy alignment among BRICS nations plays a critical role in shaping global energy markets. ...
October 2022
Studies in Comparative International Development
... On the one hand, the pandemic has generated renewed attention to a set of long-studied issues in global public health: (1) the relationship between higher levels of IP protection and prices, availability, and allocation of health products (Tenni et al. 2022); (2) the constraints that treaties create for governments attempting to adopt lower levels of IP protection (Rahman et al. 2021;Islam et al. 2020;Baker and Thrasher 2023); and (3) the importance of national-level implementation of treaty provisions in IP and health policy, and the political environment in which they are implemented, in determining health and medicines outcomes (Townsend et al. 2020;Tenni et al. 2022). At a closer look, however, there are certain new political and geopolitical realities, a rapidly shifting legal landscape and a fast-developing field of medical technologies that require a new set of research questions informed by the global experience of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
April 2022
Journal of Globalization and Development
... For example, according to a recent study, it has been found that the implementation of the TRIPS patent regime in the pharmaceutical sector of Bangladesh may lead to a significant increase in the price of insulin, perhaps reaching up to 12 times its current cost (M. D. Islam et al., 2022). A significant proportion of individuals with limited financial resources who are afflicted with diabetes may encounter challenges in procuring insulin due to its exorbitant cost. ...
April 2022
Asian Development Review
... Wind and solar sources have remained minor, with ASEAN member states collectively ranked below Europe, China, the United States, and even individual states such as India and Japan (Ding and Beh, 2022). This shows that the region still lacks a long-term robust investment scheme, which external actors could only support (Johnson et al., 2021;Li and Gallagher, 2022;Diaz-Rainey et al., 2023;Overland and Seah, 2024). Unfortunately, this has only been a minor theme in cooperation between Southeast Asian states with economic powerhouses such as Japan and China, with the dominant discourse still being the financing of infrastructural projects. ...
March 2022
... Climate risk could have a significant impact on the macro economy and financial market. There is an increasing agreement among experts that climate risk presents significant "macrocritical" risks, which refers to potential risks that can cause fiscal or financial instability within financial systems and entire economies (Ramos et al. 2022). The selection of policies for managing the interactions between the climate and the economy is heavily influenced by the uncertainty surrounding future economic and climate conditions. ...
December 2021
... The results of this article support earlier findings that even within limits imposed by external factors, such as lender preferences or macroeconomic conditions, borrowing countries do exercise agency (Humphrey and Michaelowa 2013). While this article probes borrowers' preferences, both "push" and "pull" factors contribute to borrowing outcomes (Li et al. 2022). ...
April 2022
Energy Research & Social Science
... An important policy question in that regard is whether these countries have sufficient policy room to achieve these objectives. This policy room spans across many development areas, of which fiscal, finance, education, innovation, and trade (for example, Aizenman et al., 2019;Bergant and Forbes, 2023;Ferrer and Kireyev 2022;Romer and Romer, 2018;Thrasher et al., 2021;Van der Ven, 2019). The present analysis focuses on the policy room available in the trade area. ...
December 2021
Journal of International Economic Law