November 2024
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3 Reads
Journal of International Economics
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November 2024
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3 Reads
Journal of International Economics
September 2024
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37 Reads
Journal of Economic Literature
Kevin Hjortshoj O'Rourke of NYU Abu Dhabi reviews “Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics between the World Wars” by Tara Zahra. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Explores the development of nationalism in the twentieth century after World War I, discussing significant events that contributed to the rise of anti-globalization policies and social movements.”
January 2024
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15 Reads
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3 Citations
American Economic Review
How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new data-set containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on well-defined dates, inflationary expectations clearly rose in the wake of departure. Instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal. (JEL E31, E32, E42, E43, F30, N10, N20)
December 2023
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60 Reads
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1 Citation
The Economic History Review
There has still been too little detailed work on the protectionism that emerged in the wake of the Great Depression. In this paper we explore the experiences of two countries that have been largely neglected in the literature, the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies (NEI). How did these traditionally free‐trading economies respond to the Depression? We construct a detailed product‐level database of tariff and non‐tariff barriers to trade on the basis of primary sources. While ad valorem tariff increases in the Netherlands were largely due to deflation, the country protected agriculture and textiles in a number of ways. Once quotas are taken into account, trade restrictiveness indices suggest that protection in the Netherlands and NEI was comparable to protection in the UK and India, respectively. The NEI quota system was largely geared to protecting Dutch exporters, and succeeded in doing so, but the reverse was not true.
November 2023
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14 Reads
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1 Citation
The Economic History Review
This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller's definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late‐nineteenth‐century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti‐globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.
September 2023
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46 Reads
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2 Citations
The Economic Journal
What is the role of trade policy in promoting intra-Empire trade? We address the question in the context of interwar India, whose trade policies have been accused of harming British export interests. We quantify the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade policies and imports for 114 commodity categories coming from 42 countries. We find that even though Indian protection lowered total imports, it substantially boosted imports from the UK. Despite the rising tariff barriers facing British exporters, trade diversion from other countries ensured that Indian trade policy benefited them overall.
January 2023
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2 Reads
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
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7 Reads
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1 Citation
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
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4 Reads
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3 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
September 2022
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12 Reads
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5 Citations
The Economic History Review
We assemble the Irish industrial data currently available for the years 1800–1921, the period during which the entire island was in a political union with Great Britain, and construct an annual index of Irish industrial output for 1800–1913. We also construct a new industrial price index. Irish industrial output grew by an average of 1.3 per cent per annum between 1800 and the outbreak of the First World War. Industrial growth was slightly slower than previously thought, especially during the two decades immediately preceding the Great Famine. While Ireland did not experience absolute deindustrialisation either before the Famine or afterwards, its industrial growth was disappointing when considered in a comparative perspective.
... We can answer this question by taking our model of the Canadian economy in 1929 and imposing on it, first, the tariffs it actually faced in that year, τ gc1929 , and then (counterfactually) the tariffs of every year t between 1930 and 1936, τ gct . As noted earlier, when imposing the tariffs of a given year on the model, we calculate 1000 counterfactual equilibria of the model, each 37 The data for the UK and India are taken from de Bromhead et al. (2019) and Arthi et al. (2020) respectively, while the data for the Dutch East Indies and the Netherlands are taken from de Zwart et al. (2022). Domestic consumption is taken to be equal to GDP, scaled up by the ratio of gross output to value added, minus exports. ...
December 2023
The Economic History Review
... These policies were more frequent within colonial frameworks, prompting us to examine the role of trade policy in promoting intra-Empire trade, as explored by Arthi et al. (2024). It is important to clarify that pre-WWII asymmetric protection typically involved the metropolis using political power to expand its manufactures in colonial markets (see Tena-Junguito-Restrepo, 2023). ...
September 2023
The Economic Journal
... The moderately pessimists emphasize that the costs and benefits of free trade and public investments were unbalanced in a way that unintentionally favored the Centre-North over the South. For Milone (1950), the mild tariff system adopted in the aftermath of unification, after decades of protectionism, doomed to disappearance the young and fragile industry of the South (see also James and O'Rourke 2013). Over the years, the point on the negative effects of the sudden turn to free trade on industrial development has been echoed by Bassani (1932), Flore (1970: 174-176), Toniolo (1988) and Felice (2015), who however also stress that the Centre-North was not spared by such effects. ...
September 2013
... We are aware of instances where proper MR controls do not substantially affect results, even in some trade applications (e.g.,Lampe et al. (2023)). However, controlling for structural MRs has proven very important in many other cases (e.g.,Anderson and van Wincoop (2003)). ...
January 2023
SSRN Electronic Journal
... As to the causes behind the grain price variations, there is a consensus that grain prices at least on inter-annual time-scales were determined by the quality and size of the harvest on a local to continental scale (Persson, 1999;Barquín, 2005) and by, to a lesser extent, local to regional changes in demand (Rahlf, 1996). 10 Likewise, there seems to be little doubt that disturbances associated with armed conflicts played a major role for grain price levels as well as for the functioning of the grain market (Findlay and O'Rourke, 2003;Albers and Pfister, 2021). ...
August 2003
... Extant literature focuses mainly on the effects of granting fiscal federalism on different outcomes, as well as on why fiscal autonomy has been granted in the first place. Rodden (2006) provides evidence that differences in countries' experiences with subnational fiscal discipline can in part be explained by differences in federal institutions. Sorens (2015) shows that central governments facing secessionist challenges try to hamstring regional tax collection. ...
August 2022
... The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act adopted by the US Congress in June 1930 increased US import tariffs to a record-high level, and triggering a global trade war because several countries retaliated (seeMitchener et al., 2022). 6 See https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact4_e.htm ...
February 2022
The Economic Journal
... However, the data requirements (high frequency and quality price and trade data) for calculating the relevant elasticities severely hamper much historical work (exceptions are Irwin 2019b; Mitchener, O'Rourke, and Wandschneider 2022). Thus, in much of the work on the welfare effects of historical trade reform, these elasticities are either assumed (Williamson 1990;Irwin and Chepeliev 2021) or calculated indirectly using gravity models (Estevadeordal, Frantz, and Taylor 2003;de Bromhead et al. 2019;Arthi et al. 2020). ...
January 2020
SSRN Electronic Journal
... Studies by Irwin and co-authors of tariff reforms for sugar, cotton, and manufactures on the other side of the Atlantic represent important revisions of the role of tariffs in nineteenth-century American economic development without acknowledging the (perhaps life or death) importance of reform for producers outside of the United States (Irwin and Temin 2001;Irwin 2007Irwin , 2019b. Recent work on the Smoot-Hawley trade war by Mitchener, O'Rourke, and Wandschneider (2022) is an exception, showing that countries that directly and indirectly engaged in the trade war through retaliation experienced considerable welfare reductions in 1930-1931. An important empirical question regarding the welfare effects of trade liberalization is the degree of tariff incidence, that is, the estimation of the elasticity of import prices and quantities with respect to tariffs. ...
January 2021
SSRN Electronic Journal
... The introduction of mineral fertilisers coincided with the introduction of national and EU-wide awareness and regulation of environmental problems. The importance of agriculture to the Irish economy has led economic historians of Ireland to highlight the topic in their own research (Bielenberg and Ryan, 2016;Ó Gráda and O'Rourke, 2021). Much of our understanding of Irish agricultural history has come from institutional histories, like those written about Ireland's Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Advisory Service, which explain the role of the state in developing and maintaining specific agricultural systems (Daly, 2002;Mícheál, 2021). ...
August 2021
The Economic History Review