Kerstin Enflo's research while affiliated with Lund University and other places

Publications (41)

Article
We describe a deep learning method to read hand-written records from the 16th century. The method consists of a combination of a segmentation module and a Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) module. The transformer-based HTR module exploits both language and image features in reading, classifying and extracting the position of each word on the page....
Article
This paper tests if a strong labor movement leads to fewer industrial conflicts. The focus is on Sweden between the first general election in 1919 and the famous Saltsjöbaden Agreement in 1938, a formative period when the country transitioned from fierce labor conflicts to a state of industrial peace. We use panel data techniques to analyze more th...
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This paper examines the relationship between the coming of the railroads, the expansion of primary education, and the introduction of national school curricula. Using fine-grained data on local education outcomes in Sweden in the nineteenth century, the paper tests the idea that the development of the railroad network enabled national school inspec...
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Will technical change spur conflicts in the labor market? In this study, we examine electricity adoption in Sweden during the first decades of the twentieth century. Exploiting that proximity to hydropowered plants shaped the electricity network independently of previous local conditions, we estimate the impact of electricity on labor strikes. Our...
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Economic theory predicts that differences in wages for workers with similar skills will decline as labour mobility increase. This prediction is reminiscent of the ‘law of one price’, the notion that markets, if unfettered, eliminates price differentials of similar commodities across space. But can we really apply the economic logic of the commodity...
Preprint
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A paper on how electrification in early-twentieth century Sweden influenced employment and labour conflicts.
Preprint
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A paper on the relationship between local politics and labour conflicts in Sweden in the wake of the democratic breakthrough. More precisely, we want to find out if shifts in the political majorities of town councils influenced the local strike frequency.
Article
The causes and extent of regional inequality in the process of economic growth are at the core of historical economic research. So far, much attention has been devoted to studying the role of industrialization in driving regional divergence. However, empirical studies on relatively unequal countries such as Italy and Spain show that inequality was...
Article
We examine the long-term effects of a series of Swedish towns founded by the Crown during the early modern period. Their advantage over rural parishes consisted in having monopoly rights to trade with the local hinterland. Since the optimum sites were occupied by medieval towns, the Crown could only aim for second-rate locations. Using difference-i...
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Institutions for prevention and resolution of industrial conflicts were introduced all over the world in the early twentieth century. We use a new dataset of geocoded strikes and lockouts to analyze the impact of mediation on conflict outcomes in Sweden for the period 1907–1927. Causality is identified by using the distance from the mediator’s plac...
Article
Before industrialisation the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) were part of Europe's poor periphery, but over the last century these countries have become some of the richest in the world. This article analyses the origins of Nordic growth from the late nineteenth century, focusing on a previously neglected topic: the role of t...
Article
This paper provides regional GDP estimates for the 24 Swedish regions (NUTS-3) for the benchmark year 1571 and for 11 ten-year benchmarks for the period 1750–1850. The 1571 estimates are based on tax sources and agricultural statistics. The 1750–1850 estimates are produced following the widely used methodology by Geary and Stark (2002 Geary, F., an...
Article
This paper studies the impact of railroads on 150 years of urban growth in Sweden, identifying the short- and long-term effects of a first wave of railroad construction. Difference-in-differences and instrumental variable estimates show that towns that gained access experienced substantial relative increases in population, though such growth mainly...
Article
This essay attempts to summarize and organize the periodical literature written in 2013 in English about the living standards and demography of continental Europe after 1700. Rather than collating the review by period or geography, I have grouped the articles by the following themes: reproductive outcomes and later life health; demographic transiti...
Article
In many countries, regional income inequality has followed an inverted U-shaped curve, growing during industrialization and market integration and declining thereafter. By contrast, Sweden's regional inequality dropped from 1860 to 1980 and did not exhibit this U-shaped pattern. Accordingly, today's regional income inequality in Sweden is lower tha...
Article
Though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use Granger causes economic output or vice versa, it is fairly inconclusive. Almost all existing studies use relatively short time series, or panels with a relatively small time dimension. We apply Granger causality and cointegration techniques to a Swedish time series dataset spannin...
Article
Sweden experienced a decline in inter-county real wage differentials for agricultural workers between 1860 and 1940, historical evidence of early labour market integration well before widespread unionization in agriculture occurred. By means of dynamic panel data analysis, this paper examines whether internal and external migration caused real wage...
Article
This article introduces a new database, based on official statistics, of regional manufacturing industries in Sweden. We employ this database to examine the distribution of manufacturing activity across Swedish regions and cities, 1900–1960. Over this period we observe an increasing concentration of manufacturing activities, reaching a peak around...
Article
Using a novel dataset of regional GDP per worker from 1860 to 2009, this paper analyzes communalities in regional long-term growth trajectories for 24 Swedish regions. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Component Analysis are used to decompose regional growth trajectories and assess the extent that regional growth patterns share common trends and cycli...
Article
This article investigates which institutions and policies were related to the increase in European unemployment since 1970 and the productivity stagnation since the mid 1990s. By using data for 88 regions in nine European countries, national policies and institutions are analysed in a fixed-effects panel-data model to detect their relative importan...
Article
This paper is the first to apply a finite mixture model to a sample of 64 nations to endogenously analyze the cross-country growth behavior over the period 1870-2003. Results show that growth patterns were segmented in two worldwide regimes, the one characterized by convergence in per capita income, and the other by divergence. Interestingly, when...
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This paper uses a method devised by Geary and Stark to estimate regional GDPs for 24 Swedish provinces 1855-2007. In empirical tests, we find that the Swedish estimations yield results of good precision, comparable to those reported in the international literature. From the literature, we generate six expectations concerning the development of regi...
Article
This article report findings from a new dataset that consists of productivity and employment variables from 89 Western European regions and 51 American states and districts from 1950 to 2000. Distribution dynamics is used to investigate convergence in labor productivity, Gross Value Added (GVA) per capita, and employment ratios. Main findings are t...
Article
Energy productivity is crucial for sustainable development. We use cointegration analyses to investigate the effect of electricity on energy productivity in Swedish industry from 1930 to 1990. Electricity augmented energy productivity in those industrial branches that used electricity for multiple purposes. This productivity effect goes beyond "boo...
Article
This paper addresses the issue of Western European regional productivity growth and convergence by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA), decomposing labour productivity into efficiency change, technical change and capital accumulation. The decomposition shows that most regions have fallen behind the production frontier in efficiency and that ca...
Article
Economic historians have stressed that income convergence was a key feature of the 'OECD-club' and that globalization was among the accelerating forces of this process in the long-run. This view has however been challenged, since it suffers from an ad hoc selection of countries. In the paper, a mixture model is applied to a sample of 64 countries t...
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The paper specifies a quantitative methodology for exploring development blocks. The concept of ‘development block’ was a major contribution to the historical analysis of industrial transformation by the late Erik Dahmén, but development blocks have mainly been analyzed by qualitative methods and indirect indicators and not statistically identified...
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We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nations between 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components: technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier), capital acc...
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Electricity has been regarded as a typical example of a general purpose technology and important for the surge both in energy productivity and overall productivity in the American economy in the 1920s. This view was challenged by Nicholas and Moser (2004) based on patent statistics. We argue that other methods are required for studying productivity...
Article
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The paper explores development blocks around electrification at a 14 sector level in the Swedish economy 1900-1974. We suggest that long-run cointegration relations in combination with mutually Granger-causing short-run effects form a development block. One block centred on electricity that comprises five more sectors is found. In addition we demon...
Article
Full-text available
The paper explores development blocks around electrification at a 14 sector level in the Swedish economy 1900-1974. We suggest that long-run cointegration relations in combination with mutually Granger-causing short-run effects form a development block. One block centred on electricity that comprises five more sectors is found. In addition we demon...

Citations

... However, studies investigating wage convergence across locations have gained popularity since the advancements in transportations and communication technologies increased labour mobility (Prado et al. 2020). The notion of free labour mobility across administrative borders is a necessary condition for the wage convergence mechanism to work. ...
... Pharaoh Menes of Egypt (3100 BCE), Alexander the Great (356-323 BCE), and the kings of the Swedish Crown (1570-1810 CE) all "aimed for immortality" by founding New Towns (Cermeño & Enflo, 2019). Recently, China has founded new cities such as Hallstatt and Ordos Kangbashi. ...
... Caprettini and Voth (2020) have convincingly shown that technological change really was at the root of the unrest associated with the Captain Swing riots in 1830s England. By exploiting instrumental variable techniques, they establish a causal link from the 2 See Enflo and Karlsson (2019) and Molinder, Enflo, and Karlsson (2018). The dataset is stored at the Swedish National Data Service as SND:1088 (https://snd.gu.se/en/catalogue/study/ snd1088), from where it can be obtained upon request. ...
... ird, accessibility in western China is relatively poor, and many peripheral areas have difficulties in contacting the outside world, which has seriously restricted the local economic development [36]. ...
... To estimate GDP for these regions, we follow Geary and Stark (2002;, as well several studies on other countries such as Spain (Diez-Minguela et al 2018) and Sweden (Enflo and Missiaia 2018), who show that, after equating labor productivity times number of laborers with GDP, GDP by sector and region can be calculated as follows: ...
... Otherwise, there was relatively little direct state involvement in labor market issues. State-sponsored mediation, introduced in 1907 ( Enflo and Karlsson, 2018), and a labor court, established in 1929, are two exceptions. ...
... An ample body of the literature has explored the association between economic growth and total energy consumption (see, for example, Ozturk et al., 2010;Pao & Tsai, 2010;Belke et al., 2011;Akkemik & Goksal, 2012;Stern & Enflo, 2013;Caraini et al., 2015). Theoretically, the following hypotheses have been proposed to assess the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption (Apergis & Payne, 2011): First, the feedback hypothesis represents the presence of a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. ...
... A recent study on US metropolitan statistical areas corroborates this perspective by showing that small cities have higher average automation risk than large cities (Frank et al., 2018). Since the automation risk measures frequently adopted for such empirical analyses are usually calculated at the occupation-level (see e.g., Arntz et al., 2016;Frey & Osborne, 2017), the findings of Frank et al. (2018) and other similar studies (see e.g., Henning et al. (2016) for similar Swedish findings on regional automation risks and Crowley et al. (2021) for European NUTS regions) should be interpreted with caution. The average "automation risk" of a geographical unit (or an industry) compresses all the information that the local occupational mix hides within itself. ...
... Studies such as those by Reher (1999), Sarasúa (1994) and Dubert (1998Dubert ( , 2002 have shown different patterns of rural-urban migration, both temporary and permanent, while López Martínez (2000a, 2000b) have studied intra-rural migration associated with agricultural work. Studies into the different types of preindustrial migration during periods and within specific regions have also been reviewed in Eiras and Rey (1994), González Portilla and Zarraga (1996), and Rodríguez Galdo (1999), Roquer and Blay (2008), Collantes, Kerstin and Prados (2016), Reques Velasco (2017) and Camarero (2020). These authors have examined other factors beyond territorial migrations from rural to urban areas and vice-versa, such as low fertility rates, male-skewed sex ratios and the ageing population in rural contexts. ...
... In the specific case of Sweden, where the land topology is not always favorable and distances between (large) cities are not small, the low quality of the transportation infrastructure was a clear barrier to information acquisition. Berger and Enflo (2017) explain this situation in their enlightening study of the history of rail and transportation in Sweden. Interestingly, they found that the costs of transportation were very high and the transportation infrastructure (which was based on water) was highly inefficient before 1820-1850 but that these costs decreased sharply and rapidly following the construction of the first railroads in the country. ...