Kenneth S. Rukstales's research while affiliated with United States Geological Survey and other places

Publications (26)

Article
The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (...
Article
The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for...
Article
As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the fi...
Article
Full-text available
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median...
Article
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This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one-year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity-based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates...
Technical Report
U.S. Geological Survey data release for 2018 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
Article
We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake s...
Article
Full-text available
We produce a one-year 2017 seismic-hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model appl...
Article
Full-text available
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 f...
Article
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Technical Report
Full-text available
Natural scientists, like many other experts, face challenges when communicating to people outside their fields of expertise. This is especially true when they try to communicate to those whose background, knowledge, and experience are far distant from that field of expertise. At a recent workshop, experts in risk communication offered insights into...
Article
Full-text available
New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthqua...
Article
With the 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) as a basis, the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) has updated the earthquake ground motion maps in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures, with partial funding f...
Article
Full-text available
The 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map updates are based on new assessments of the probable locations, rates and sizes of future earthquakes and corresponding ground shaking. New data, methods, and models were discussed at workshops and reviewed by an external steering committee. The new models incorporate updated earthquake catalogs, new smooth...
Article
Full-text available
The national seismic hazard maps for the conterminous United States have been updated to account for new methods, models, and data that have been obtained since the 2008 maps were released (Petersen and others, 2008). The input models are improved from those implemented in 2008 by using new ground motion models that have incorporated about twice as...
Article
In this paper, we describe the scientific basis for the source and ground-motion models applied in the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Maps, the development of new products that are used for building design and risk analyses, relationships between the hazard maps and design maps used in building codes, and potential future improvements to the hazard m...
Article
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthq...
Article
The 1997 NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings use a design procedure that is based on spectral response acceleration rather than the traditional peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, or zone factors. The spectral response accelerations are obtained from maps prepared following the recommendations of the B...
Article
Full-text available
This publication consists of six map sheets (titles and text included in this document, below), geospatial datasets, and metadata. The geospatial datasets consist of ArcInfo export files for the seismic-hazard point and polygon data shown on the sheets. Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying pe...
Article
Full-text available
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project originated in response to the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the resulting tsunami that caused significant casualties and economic losses in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. Hazard models and maps were produced, with input from...

Citations

... However, the 2018 caldera collapse earthquakes produced very low shaking at short periods compared to the A10 and NGA-West2 GMMs. Therefore, to account for this deficit, Petersen et al. (2021) modified the A10 GMM by defining period-dependent factors that reduce the short-period ground motion levels of caldera collapse events, so that they are consistent with observations from the 2018 sequence (Rekoske et al., 2019). Because the GMM is only applied to M ≥ 5 earthquakes, we will only compute the hazard using our M ≥ 5 occurrence model. ...
... Note that these maps are not representative of the total change in hazard given that they use the same source model; they only show the effects of GMM updates. Petersen et al. (2021) provide information on the total changes in hazard, including those due to source model updates. ...
... As a result of these updates, only GMMs that are applicable or that can be reasonably extrapolated to all periods and site classes of interest are selected for the 2018 NSHM CONUS update. The updated spectral period and site class requirements are outlined in Table 1; we refer the reader to Rezaeian et al. (2021) and Shumway et al. (2021) for more thorough discussions of the changes. ...
... The 2018 USGS National Hazard map is calculated with a uniform reference V S30 of 260 and 760 m/s. V S30 = 760, a common reference value, is about that of dense soil or soft rock (Seyhan and Stewart, 2012;Petersen et al., 2020). This V S30 value corresponds to a National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site class B/C (BSSC, 2020). ...
... The last several years have seen an unprecedented increase in the number of induced earthquakes in the conterminous US [15,16] from regions that were previously seismically quiet (See Fig. 1). The Oklahoma region is the most striking example where the rise in low magnitude earthquakes has been pronounced since 2008 [10]. This phenomenon is strongly correlated with the rise in fracking activities within the state as part of the growing oil industry. ...
... The region did not have a history of frequent earthquake activity, and little was known about the location of the faults that came to host it. For that reason, seismic hazard forecasts relied on the seismicity rate of the previous years without information on the distribution of regional faults (Petersen et al., 2016(Petersen et al., , 2017(Petersen et al., , 2018. ...
... There are approximately 5000 bridges located on federal highways in Brazil, under the supervision of the National Department of Infrastructure and Transportation (DNIT). About 50% of these bridges are located in Northeastern Brazil, which presents one of the highest seismic activities compared to other parts of Brazil [31]- [33]. Furthermore, bridges have the worst structural condition countrywide; 6.6% of them require immediate or mid-term interventions, as seen in [34]. ...
... In PSHA studies for natural seismicity, the earthquake rates are inferred from past observations of earthquakes as reflected in the instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues. The same approach can be applied to include induced seismicity in hazard assessments: for example, in the United States, one-year hazard forecasts have been formulated based on observed induced seismicity during the previous year (e.g., Petersen et al. 2017). Such an approach requires the assumption that the seismicity will remain stationary-and implicitly, therefore, that the industrial operations will also not change-and only provides a short-term assessment. ...
... In order to obtain the seismic fragility of the constituent component under sequential earthquake excitations over its life cycle, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is carried out in OpenQuake [13] based on the 2008 USGS hazard model [14] for a hypothetical site located at Memphis, Tennessee (35.2°N, 89.9°W). Only mainshock hazard is considered herein. ...
... Annual earthquake tendency is also assessed in other countries/regions based on various approaches (e.g., Petersen et al., 2017). However, the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes in China is characterized by its multidisciplinary framework and the role of experienced experts in the comprehensive analysis (Zhang, 2019;Zhu & Wu, 2007). ...