Kenneth F. Kellner’s research while affiliated with Michigan State University and other places

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Publications (119)


Leopard locations and protected areas, northern Pakistan, 2014–2022. The shaded area represents a 50‐km buffer around leopard locations, within which we estimated leopard habitat suitability.
Response curves showing the marginal effects of covariates on habitat suitability from an ensemble model of leopard habitat, northern Pakistan, 2014–2022. For each curve, all covariates except the focal covariate were held at their median value (continuous) or reference value (categorical). Road and settlement covariates are densities.
Projected leopard habitat in relation to protected areas, based on an ensemble model of leopard habitat, northern Pakistan, 2014–2022.
Habitat suitability of common leopard in northern Pakistan
  • Article
  • Full-text available

March 2025

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80 Reads

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Kenneth F. Kellner

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Habitat fragmentation and loss are considered primary threats to common leopards (Panthera pardus) across their geographical range. We investigated anthropogenic and environmental factors influencing the habitat suitability of leopards in northern Pakistan using an ensemble model of direct and indirect leopard signs during 2014–2022. Using location data from 206 leopard sightings the ensemble model's performance was good (true skill statistic, TSS = 0.52). Habitat suitability was highest in forest cover and negatively related to the density of settlements and roads. Habitat suitability peaked at intermediate elevations (about 1000–2000 m). Based on the ensemble model, we estimated 4543 km² of leopard habitat in northern Pakistan, of which 3144 km² (69%) occurred in six contiguous patches of at least 58 km² (range = 65–951 km²), the minimum size to support one female leopard. There was one patch of leopard habitat at least 58 km² within a protected area, and overall, 36% of total protected areas were estimated as suitable. Our findings suggest that the current network of protected areas in northern Pakistan does not adequately represent suitable habitat for leopards; increasing forest cover and expanding the protected area network could improve leopard habitat suitability.

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Sankey diagram categorizing data and code availability and code functionality for papers included in analyses. Node labels (and number of papers at each node) are below the associated node. Green indicates a positive outcome (code and data available, code runs) and gold a negative outcome (code unavailable, code does not run). Note that papers could have multiple reasons for why the code didn't run and only the first reason is reflected in this diagram.
Effects of journal code policy (a), year (b), and journal (c) on proportion of papers that provided complete data and code. Black points and lines represent estimates and 95% CIs based on the raw data, and gold represents predictions (posterior mean and 95% credible interval) from the regression model. In panel c, acronyms correspond to journals as follows: Biological Conservation (BC), Conservation Biology (CB), Ecology (ECOL), Ecology and Evolution (E&E), Ecosphere (ECOS), Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM), Methods in Ecology and Evolution (MEE), PLoS One (PLOS), and Scientific Reports (SREP).
Effects of number of code lines (a), number of required R packages (b), code format (c), and year (d) on proportion of papers for which provided code ran successfully. Black points and lines represent estimates and 95% CIs using the raw data provided, and gold represents predictions (posterior means and 95% credible intervals) from the regression model. In panels (a) and (b), corresponding model predictions were calculated using midpoints of binned data on the x‐axis.
Functional R code is rare in species distribution and abundance papers

November 2024

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436 Reads

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2 Citations

Analytic reproducibility is important for scientific credibility in ecology, but the extent to which scientific literature meets this criterion is not well understood. We surveyed 497 papers published in 2018–2022 in 9 ecology‐related journals. We focused on papers that used hierarchical models to estimate species distribution and abundance. We determined if papers achieved two components of analytic reproducibility: (1) availability of data and code, and (2) code functionality. We found that 28% of papers made data and code available, and 7% of papers provided code that ran without errors. Our findings indicate that analytic reproducibility remains the exception rather than the rule in ecology literature. We recommend authors (1) test code in a separate clean environment; (2) simplify code structure; (3) minimize software packages used; and (4) minimize code run time. We suggest journals (1) validate authors' provided open data statements and URLs; (2) recommend that code and data be shared in a separate repository rather than as appendices; and (3) elevate the status of code and data during review. We suggest these guidelines can aid the ecology community by improving the scientific reproducibility and credibility of ecological research.



Variable spatiotemporal ungulate behavioral response to predation risk

October 2024

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118 Reads

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1 Citation

Prey must balance resource acquisition with predator avoidance for survival and reproduction. To reduce risk of predation, prey may avoid areas with high predator use, but if they are unable to due to resource acquisition requirements, they may instead change their habitat use or movement speed to mitigate predation risk. Prey risk response may depend on spatially or temporally varying forage availability as well as seasonal variation in prey vulnerability and availability of alternate foods for predators. To quantify how prey respond to spatial and temporal variation in risk of brown bear predation, we examined Roosevelt elk (Cervus canadensis roosevelti) spatiotemporal behavior responses to brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat use on Afognak and Raspberry islands, Alaska, using Global Positioning System location data during elk parturition (20 May–15 June), summer (16 June–20 September), and autumn (21 September–10 November). During parturition and summer, elk used forest and shrub landcover in areas of higher brown bear probability of use. During parturition, elk used areas with lower forage productivity in areas of higher bear probability of use, and movement speed decreased with higher bear probability of use, especially in shrub landcover. During summer, elk used areas with higher forage productivity in areas of higher brown bear probability of use. During autumn, elk were less likely to use areas with higher bear habitat probability of use across landcover categories and forage productivity. During summer and autumn, elk movement speed increased with higher brown bear probability of use. Elk behavioral response to risk of brown bear predation could increase energy expenditure and decrease their ability to acquire forage, therefore negatively impacting survival and reproduction with spatiotemporal variation in risk response potentially amplifying these impacts.



Citations (49)


... Therefore, they may suffer from low interoperability, which can create friction when using multiple tools together. As an illustration, Kellner et al. (2025) highlight that about 20% of publications for abundance or distribution models are not reproducible because of issues in package dependencies. ...

Reference:

A Julia toolkit for species distribution data
Functional R code is rare in species distribution and abundance papers

... We thinned brown bear GPS points to one randomly-selected point every four hours to reduce spatial and temporal autocorrelation ("used points"; Swihart and Slade, 1985). Because brown bears on Afognak and Raspberry islands have large ranges and can use the entirety of both islands (Finnegan et al., 2021;Schooler et al., 2024), we compared individual habitat use to population level habitat availability to estimate landscape-scale brown bear relative probability of habitat selection ("probability of selection"; Thomas and Taylor, 2006). We generated random points equal to 10 times the number of brown bear GPS locations within the boundary of Afognak and Raspberry islands ("available points"; Fieberg et al., 2021;Fig. ...

Variable spatiotemporal ungulate behavioral response to predation risk

... We identified research priorities necessary to further our understanding of wildlife harvests. First, the roles and ecosystem service benefits of wildlife harvests to human societies need to be quantified 12 . With these data, we can identify and forecast patterns of harvests, their distributions, and measure sustainability within established goals and frameworks. ...

Ecosystem services from wildlife harvests

BioScience

... A growing body of scientific literature has examined various effects of culling on wolf populations and pack dynamics, ranging from habitat selection shifts (Baillie-David et al. 2024) to increased hybridization with coyotes (Rutledge 2012) and turnover of individuals within packs (Bassing et al. 2019). Some studies suggest that culling can lead to pack dissolution, leaving behind less-experienced surviving members that may disperse (Brainerd et al. 2008;Wallach et al. 2009;Borg et al. 2015), while others have shown that low levels of harvest or agency removal do not significantly affect pack persistence (Zubiria Perez et al. 2024). Dispersing single wolves tend to navigate the landscape differently than those belonging to packs -avoiding threats posed by territorial packs (Kirilyuk et al. 2021) and wandering closer to towns and roads (Mancinelli et al. 2019;Barry et al. 2020). ...

Effects of lethal management on gray wolf pack persistence and reproduction in Wisconsin, USA

... These regions are underrepresented even across the complete set of studies within BioTIME, suggesting that we lack long-term (≥ 10 years) monitoring studies across regions that face the strongest environmental filtering, with some of the most rapid rates of global change (Rantanen et al. 2022). There is strong evidence that biotic interactions can structure ecological communities (Godsoe et al. 2015), influencing how communities respond to change, such as in seasonal spatial patterns (Wehr et al. 2024). Accordingly, we expected that pairs of genera with documented GloBI interactions would exhibit stronger correlations of abundance change over time. ...

Spatial overlap of gray wolves and ungulate prey changes seasonally corresponding to prey migration

Movement Ecology

... Wolf predation on adult-sized deer primarily occurs during October-April with predation generally peaking in February-April (Fuller 1990;Vucetich et al. 2012;Wehr et al. 2024). ...

Moose and white‐tailed deer mortality peaks in fall and late winter

Journal of Wildlife Management

... Where additional data sources that are more directly informative about abundance than unmarked detection/non-detection data are available, for example, distance sampling data, or individual identity data, these data could be integrated into the model. This integration could significantly improve model performance and be achieved simply by using an additional observation model (e.g., that of a standard distance sampling model; Kéry et al., 2024 or a simple SCR model; Royle et al., 2014), with a shared abundance state. ...

Integrated distance sampling models for simple point counts

... Our results support the hypothesis that wolves avoid linear features with high levels of human activity (Dickie et al., 2017;McKenzie et al., 2012;van den Bosch et al., 2023). When in isolation, wolves exhibited a neutral response to primary road proximity. ...

Habitat selection of resident and non-resident gray wolves: implications for habitat connectivity

... In Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, van den Bosch et al. (2023) examined aardwolves (Proteles cristata) and aardvarks (Orycteropus afer)-both nocturnal insectivores-to examine spatiotemporal co-occurrence of these two potential competitors. In fact, multispecies occupancy modelling showed a high degree of spatial and temporal overlap in the two species, with evidence that the two are commensals: aardvarks increase food accessibility for aardwolves (van den Bosch et al. 2023). In Mozambique's Gorongosa National Park, Grabowski, Phillips, and Gaynor (2024) used camera traps to explore patterns of spatial and temporal niche partitioning among mesocarnivores: large-spotted genet (Genetta maculata), African civet (Civettictis civetta), honey badger (Mellivora capensis), and marsh mongoose (Atilax paludinosus). ...

Spatial and temporal niche overlap of aardwolves and aardvarks in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania

... Many popular R packages based on formula exist that can fit various combinations of models including N-mixture models, and/or generalized linear mixed models for assessing abundance (Doser et al.,2024). However, some packages can not accommodate multiple species within a multivariate framework, such as unmark (Kellner et al., 2023), dsm (Miller et al., 2013), hSDM (Vieilledent, 2019), and ubsm, and some packages can not explicitly account for imperfect detection, such as spBayes (Finley et al., 2013), Hmsc (Tikhonov et al., 2019), and sdmTMB (Anderson et al., 2024). spAbundance of R package fits a variety of analogous spatially explicit occupancy models, drastically reducing computational run times using Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Processes, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation and imperfect detection (Doser et al., 2024). ...

The unmarked R package: Twelve years of advances in occurrence and abundance modelling in ecology