Kelly Compton’s research while affiliated with University of Washington and other places

10573 Background: Liver cancer is a leading cause of global health burden, and was the seventh leading cause of cancer death in 2021. The most common type of liver cancer in adults is hepatocellular carcinoma, which can be due to alcohol, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), or other causes. In children the most common type of liver cancer is hepatoblastoma. Comprehensive and comparative estimation of liver cancer burden can inform policy decisions and public health interventions to reduce incidence, morbidity, and mortality. This study provides updated liver cancer estimates from 1990 to 2021, and for the first time includes hepatoblastoma. Methods: Using estimation methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) we comprehensively estimated total liver cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability adjusted life-years (DALYs). Etiologic proportions from meta-analyses of literature review data were applied to the total. Liver cancers under age 10 were attributed to hepatoblastoma. YLLs were calculated using life expectancy estimates. Prevalence and YLDs were calculated from expected survival, disease sequelae, and disability weights. DALYs were the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Results are presented with 95% Uncertainty Intervals (95% UI). Results: Globally, there were an estimated 529,000 (95% UI 480,000 – 594,000) liver cancer cases and 484,000 (437,000 – 538,000) deaths in 2021, contributing to 12,900,000 (11,600,000 – 14,400,000) DALYs. Since 1990, these represented increases of 114.3% (87.0 – 145.3%) in cases, 102.5% (76.4 – 132.0%) in deaths, and 70.6% (48.7 – 96.8%) in DALYs. For liver cancer etiologies (excluding hepatoblastoma), 37.4% (32.6 – 42.6%) of deaths were due to hepatitis B, 30.3% (26.3 – 34.8%) hepatitis C, 19.1% (15.8 – 22.8%) alcohol, 8.5% (6.9 – 10.3%) NASH, and 4.3% (3.6 – 5.1%) other causes in 2021. Conclusions: These GBD 2021 estimates provide comprehensive estimates of the substantial health burden of liver cancer, highlighting a continued need for public health efforts targeting prevention, vaccination, treatment, or behavioral change.[Table: see text]

Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Background: Large disparities in mortality exist across racial-ethnic groups and by location in the USA, but the extent to which racial-ethnic disparities vary by location, or how these patterns vary by cause of death, is not well understood. We aimed to estimate age-standardised mortality by racial-ethnic group, county, and cause of death and describe the intersection between racial-ethnic and place-based disparities in mortality in the USA, comparing patterns across health conditions. Methods: We applied small-area estimation models to death certificate data from the US National Vital Statistics system and population data from the US National Center for Health Statistics to estimate mortality by age, sex, county, and racial-ethnic group annually from 2000 to 2019 for 19 broad causes of death. Race and ethnicity were categorised as non-Latino and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), non-Latino and non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (Asian), non-Latino and non-Hispanic Black (Black), Latino or Hispanic (Latino), and non-Latino and non-Hispanic White (White). We adjusted these mortality rates to correct for misreporting of race and ethnicity on death certificates and generated age-standardised results using direct standardisation to the 2010 US census population. Findings: From 2000 to 2019, across 3110 US counties, racial-ethnic disparities in age-standardised mortality were noted for all causes of death considered. Mortality was substantially higher in the AIAN population (all-cause mortality 1028·2 [95% uncertainty interval 922·2-1142·3] per 100 000 population in 2019) and Black population (953·5 [947·5-958·8] per 100 000) than in the White population (802·5 [800·3-804·7] per 100 000), but substantially lower in the Asian population (442·3 [429·3-455·0] per 100 000) and Latino population (595·6 [583·7-606·8] per 100 000), and this pattern was found for most causes of death. However, there were exceptions to this pattern, and the exact order among racial-ethnic groups, magnitude of the disparity in both absolute and relative terms, and change over time in this magnitude varied considerably by cause of death. Similarly, substantial geographical variation in mortality was observed for all causes of death, both overall and within each racial-ethnic group. Racial-ethnic disparities observed at the national level reflect widespread disparities at the county level, although the magnitude of these disparities varied widely among counties. Certain patterns of disparity were nearly universal among counties; for example, in 2019, mortality was higher among the AIAN population than the White population in at least 95% of counties for skin and subcutaneous diseases (455 [97·8%] of 465 counties with unmasked estimates) and HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (458 [98·5%] counties), and mortality was higher among the Black population than the White population in nearly all counties for skin and subcutaneous diseases (1436 [96·6%] of 1486 counties), diabetes and kidney diseases (1473 [99·1%]), maternal and neonatal disorders (1486 [100·0%] counties), and HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (1486 [100·0%] counties). Interpretation: Disparities in mortality among racial-ethnic groups are ubiquitous, occurring across locations in the USA and for a wide range of health conditions. There is an urgent need to address the shared structural factors driving these widespread disparities. Funding: National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Cancer Institute; National Institute on Aging; National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases; Office of Disease Prevention; and Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Background: There are persistent disparities in stomach cancer mortality among racial-ethnic groups in the USA, but the extent to which these patterns vary geographically is not well understood. This analysis estimated age-standardised mortality for five racial-ethnic groups, in 3110 USA counties over 20 years, to describe spatial-temporal variations in stomach cancer mortality and disparities between racial-ethnic groups. Methods: Redistribution methods for insufficient cause of death codes and validated small area estimation methods were applied to death registration data from the US National Vital Statistics System and population data from the US National Center for Health Statistics to estimate annual stomach cancer mortality rates. Estimates were stratified by county and racial-ethnic group (non-Latino and non-Hispanic [NL] American Indian or Alaska Native [AIAN], NL Asian or Pacific Islander [Asian], NL Black [Black], Latino or Hispanic [Latino], and NL White [White]) from 2000 to 2019. Estimates were corrected for misreporting of racial-ethnic group on death certificates using published misclassification ratios. We masked (ie, did not display) estimates for county and racial-ethnic group combinations with a mean annual population of less than 1000; thus, we report estimates for 3079 (of 3110) counties for the total population, and 474, 667, 1488, 1478, and 3051 counties for the AIAN, Asian, Black, Latino, and White populations, respectively. Findings: Between 2000 and 2019, national age-standardised stomach cancer mortality was lowest among the White population in every year. Nationally, stomach cancer mortality declined for all racial-ethnic groups across this time period, with the most rapid declines occurring among the Asian (percent decline 48.3% [45.1-51.1]) and Black populations (42.6% [40.2-44.6]). Mortality among the other racial-ethnic groups declined more moderately, decreasing by 36.7% (35.3-38.1), 35.1% (32.2-37.7), and 31.6% (23.9-38.0) among the White, Latino, and AIAN populations, respectively. Similar patterns were observed at the county level, although with wide geographic variation. In 2019, a majority of counties had higher mortality rates among minoritised racial-ethnic populations compared to the White population: 81.1% (377 of 465 counties with unmasked estimates for both racial-ethnic groups) among the AIAN population, 88.2% (1295 of 1469) among the Latino population, 99.4% (663 of 667) among the Asian population, and 99.9% (1484 of 1486) among the Black population. However, the size of these disparities ranged widely across counties, with the largest range from 0.3 to 17.1 among the AIAN population. Interpretation: Stomach cancer mortality has decreased substantially across populations and geographies in the USA. However, disparities in stomach cancer mortality among racial-ethnic groups are widespread and have persisted over the last two decades. Local-level data are crucial to understanding the scope of this unequal burden among minoritised groups in the USA. Funding: National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Cancer Institute; National Institute on Aging; National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases; Office of Disease Prevention; and Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research, National Institutes of Health (contract #75N94019C00016).