Kazuko Shirono’s research while affiliated with International Monetary Fund and other places

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Publications (8)


Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries
  • Book

January 2013

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18 Reads

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2 Citations

IMF Occasional Papers

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Era Dabla-Norris

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[...]

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George Tsibouris

Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

October 2011

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102 Reads

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21 Citations

IMF Working Paper

This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.



Yen Bloc or Yuan Bloc: An Analysis of Currency Arrangements in East Asia

January 2009

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88 Reads

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19 Citations

IMF Working Paper

This paper examines the role of Japan against that of China in the exchange rate regime in East Asia in light of growing interest in forming a currency union in the region. The analysis suggests that currency unions with China tend to generate higher average welfare gains for East Asian countries than currency unions with Japan or the United States. Overall, Japan does not appear to be a dominant player in forming a currency union in East Asia, and this trend is likely to continue if China's relative presence continues to rise in the regional trade.


Figure 3.1. CMA: Average Real GDP Growth Rate, 1980-2005 (Percent)
Figure 3.5. CMA: Average Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility, 1996-2005 1
Figure 3.8. Commercial Bank Prime Lending Rates, 1996-2005 (Percent)
Figure 3.9. Small CMA Countries: Number of Migrants (Net),
Table 3 .5. Monthly Minimum Wages in the Manufacturing Sector, 1990-2003

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The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustment, and Policy Challenges
  • Article
  • Full-text available

August 2007

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2,438 Reads

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70 Citations

IMF Working Paper

This study assesses the experience of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) based on available empirical evidence over the last two decades. It pays particular attention to member countries' adjustment to economic shocks in recent years and the inter-country linkages, including the spillover effects of policies. The paper draws the main lessons from the CMA experience, identifies key policy challenges, and discusses the issues facing the member countries in their efforts to achieve sustained growth. Implications for further economic integration in a broader regional context are also noted.

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Real Effects of Common Currencies in East Asia

July 2007

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24 Reads

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25 Citations

IMF Working Paper

Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.



Citations (7)


... This is likely the case because members of the CMA (Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) constantly set themselves targets to be met in terms of reserves accumulation, led mainly by the regional de facto Central bank, the South African. For example, smaller economies in the CMA are required to maintain foreign reserves of at least equivalent to the total amount of local currencies they issue (Wang, Masha, Shirono, & Harris, 2007). Similar to this is the requirement placed by France on French colonies in Africa to hold 50 percent of foreign reserves in the Bank of France. ...

Reference:

Determinants of demand for international reserves in the SADC region
The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustment, and Policy Challenges
  • Citing Article
  • January 2007

SSRN Electronic Journal

... d) Opportunity cost: Although the studies in the literature reveal that reserve demand is negatively related to the opportunity cost of the reserve holding, it is argued that this effect is small. On the other hand, it is difficult to accurately calculate the opportunity cost of reserve holding (Flood and Marion, 2002;Dabla-Norris et al., 2011). ...

Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Citing Article
  • January 2011

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The historical facts also suggest that the pattern of use of stabilization policies in the region varies significantly. 3 See, for example, Park and Park (1990), Frankel (1991Frankel ( , 1993, Eichengreen (1994), Taguchi (1994), Kwan (1998), Chow and Kim (2003) and Shirono (2007), just to name a few in the long list of recent studies. 4 In the last decade ASEAN countries have increased their trade and financial relationship with China, Japan, and India. ...

Real Effects of Common Currencies in East Asia
  • Citing Article
  • January 2007

IMF Working Paper

... On the other hand, Dabla-Norris et al. (2011) suggest that a better institutional quality contributes to lower demand for reserves (i.e., a negative relationship); because a country has sound fundamentals, the probability of an economic downturn is less likely to happen. One can also reckon that the international reserves are also smaller in countries with high institutional quality because those countries generally receive fewer capital inflows. ...

Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Citing Article
  • October 2011

IMF Working Paper

... The US dollar is not the appropriate reference currency. Indeed, if there is an abundant literature revealing the predominant role of the US dollar (Williamson, 2005) and the absence of a Yen Bloc (Shirono, 2009), it seems that, since the 1997-8 crisis, East Asian countries would like to be less peg to the US dollar (with some exceptions, as in China and Hong Kong), and this fact should be upgraded with the subprime crisis Park and Song, 2011). ...

Yen Bloc or Yuan Bloc: An Analysis of Currency Arrangements in East Asia
  • Citing Article
  • January 2009

IMF Working Paper

... Fourth, for the SAMU, Grandes (2003) and Debrun and Masson (2013) provide perspectives on its feasibility, Agdeyegbe, (2009) recommends against the union while the greater bulk of the literature in the strand advocates for a currency zone subject to improvements in compliant conditions in potential members states (Khamfula & Huizinga, 2004;Wang et al., 2007;Jefferis, 2007;Masson, 2008;Masson, 2008;Bangaké, 2008;Zehirun et al., 2015;Asongu et al., 2020b). ...

The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustment, and Policy Challenges

IMF Working Paper