Kåre Vernby’s research while affiliated with Stockholm University and other places

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Publications (26)


Early voting can widen the turnout gap: The case of childbirth
  • Article

August 2024

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7 Reads

Electoral Studies

Sirus H. Dehdari

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Karl-Oskar Lindgren

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[...]

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Kåre Vernby

Do Minorities Feel Welcome in Politics? A Cross-Cultural Study of the United States and Sweden
  • Article
  • Full-text available

May 2024

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34 Reads

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3 Citations

British Journal of Political Science

Racial and ethnic minorities are underrepresented in most Western democracies. This article investigates one potential root cause behind this pattern: minority and majority citizens might expect to feel discriminated against if they enter politics. Using data from three large-scale surveys, we find that minorities in both the United States and Sweden are less likely to expect to feel welcome than the majority population. These discrepancies in expected discrimination persist, even after controlling for other factors. Moreover, expected discrimination is not without political consequences: those who expect to feel less welcome are less likely to indicate an interest in running for political office. Finally, these results do not differ for politically engaged citizens who constitute a more realistic pool of potential candidates. We conclude by discussing what expectations of discrimination can tell us about the fairness of the political system and how these attitudes shape political ambition among minorities.

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Treatment Effects by Dependent Variable
Let Me Be the Judge: Ideology, Identity, and Judicial Selection

June 2022

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14 Reads

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2 Citations

Journal of Experimental Political Science

A substantial body of research has found biased recruitment in a variety of societal spheres. We study selection in the judiciary, a domain that has received less attention than the economic and political spheres. Our field experiment took place in the midst of a Swedish government campaign encouraging ordinary citizens to contact local parties, which are responsible for recruiting lay judges (jurors) and put themselves forward as lay judge candidates. Parties’ responsiveness to citizen requests does not seem to favor their own sympathizers, does not vary at all with signals of gender, and is only marginally affected by ethnicity and age. Given the potential importance of ideology and identity in judicial decision-making, the finding that there is little bias with respect to these factors at this first stage of the recruitment process is reassuring from the perspective of impartiality.


FIGURE 3. Divorce Effect on Turnout
FIGURE 4. Effect of Divorce on SES, Mobility, and Household Composition
FIGURE 6. Marriage Effect on Turnout
Descriptive Statistics
The Ex-Factor: Examining the Gendered Effect of Divorce on Voter Turnout

March 2022

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24 Reads

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3 Citations

American Political Science Association

The absence of a gendered analysis of the effect of marriage on voting is surprising given researchers’ cognizance of the heterogeneous effects of marriage on a range of other social outcomes. In this paper, we shed new light on spousal dependency by studying the gendered effect of marital disruption, in the form of divorce, on voter turnout. First, drawing on Swedish populationwide data, we use the differential timing of divorces in relation to general elections to generate more credible estimates of the causal effect of divorce on turnout. Second, although we find that both sexes are adversely affected by divorce, we show that the effect is much more pronounced for men. Specifically, the long-term effect is almost twice as large for men. Finally, we use these data to show that the gendered effect of divorce is mainly driven by asymmetrical spousal mobilization due to higher levels of turnout among women.


Emigration and Populism

March 2022

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16 Reads

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4 Citations

An extensive literature links the rise of populist radical right (PRR) parties to immigration. We argue that another demographic trend is also significant: Emigration. The departure of citizens due to internal and international emigration is a major phenomenon affecting election outcomes via two complementary mechanisms. Emigration alters the composition of electorates but also changes the preferences of remaining voters left behind. Empirically, we establish a positive correlation between PRR vote shares and population loss at the county level across Europe. A more fine-grained panel analysis of precincts in Sweden demonstrates that the departure of local citizens raises PRR vote shares in the places left behind and that the Social Democrats are the principal losers from emigration. We explore through elite interviews and newspaper analyses how emigration produces grievances on which populists can capitalize and that established parties do not effectively address. Emigration and the frustrations it generates emerge as important sources of populist success.


The Ex-Factor: Examining the Gendered Effect of Divorce on Voter Turnout

May 2021

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9 Reads

The absence of a gendered analysis of the effect of marriage on voting is surprising, given researchers’ cognizance of the heterogeneous effects of marriage on a range of other social outcomes. In this paper, we shed new light on spousal dependency by studying the gendered impact of marital disruption, in the form of divorce, on voter turnout. First, drawing on Swedish population-wide registry data, we use the differential timing of divorces in relation to general elections to generate more credible estimates of the causal effect of divorce on turnout. Second, although we find that both sexes are strongly and adversely affected by divorce, we show that the effect is much more pronounced for men. Specifically, the long-term effect is almost twice as large for men. Finally, we use these, as well as a variety of additional data, to show that the gendered effect of divorce is mainly driven by asymmetrical spousal mobilization due to higher levels of voter turnout among women.



Correlated with Running for Office across Immigrants and Natives
Analyses of Who Considers, Runs for, and Wins Public Office
Candidate Supply Is Not a Barrier to Immigrant Representation: A Case–Control Study

September 2020

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59 Reads

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26 Citations

American Journal of Political Science

Immigrants are underrepresented in most democratic parliaments. To explain the immigrant–native representation gap, existing research emphasizes party gatekeepers and structural conditions. But a more complete account must consider the possibility that the representation gap begins at the supply stage. Are immigrants simply less interested in elected office? To test this explanation, we carried out an innovative case–control survey in Sweden. We surveyed elected politicians, candidates for local office, and residents who have not run; stratified these samples by immigrant status; and linked all respondents to local political opportunity structures. We find that differences in political ambition, interest, and efficacy do not help explain immigrants' underrepresentation. Instead, the major hurdles lie in securing a candidate nomination and being placed on an electable list position. We conclude that there is a sufficient supply of potential immigrant candidates, but immigrants' ambition is thwarted by political elites.


Can immigrants counteract employer discrimination? A factorial field experiment reveals the immutability of ethnic hierarchies

July 2019

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108 Reads

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48 Citations

How pervasive is labor market discrimination against immigrants and what options do policymakers and migrants have to reduce it? To answer these questions, we conducted a field experiment on employer discrimination in Sweden. Going beyond existing work, we test for a large range of applicant characteristics using a factorial design. We examine whether migrants can affect their employment chances—by adopting citizenship, acquiring work experience, or signaling religious practice—or whether fixed traits such as country of birth or gender are more consequential. We find little systematic evidence that immigrants can do much to reduce discrimination. Rather, ethnic hierarchies are critical: callback rates decline precipitously with the degree of ethno-cultural distance, leaving Iraqis and Somalis, especially if they are male, with much reduced employment chances. These findings highlight that immigrants have few tools at their disposal to escape ethnic penalties and that efforts to reduce discrimination must address employer prejudice.


Citations (20)


... Members of social minorities continue to face barriers to accessing elected office globally (Besley et al., 2017;Clayton et al., 2019;Dancygier et al., 2015;Dancygier et al., 2021;Lajevardi et al., 2024;Lawless & Fox, 2015;O'Brien, 2015). These barriers stem from several factors, including an insufficient supply of minority aspirants (Dancygier et al., 2015;Fox & Lawless, 2011;Grahn & Thisell, 2024;Lindgren et al., 2022;van Oosten et al., 2024); as well as a lack of demand for minority candidates within political parties (Dancygier et al., 2021;Doherty et al., 2019;Norris & Lovenduski, 1995). ...

Reference:

From the closet to spotlight: the rising tide of lesbian, gay and bisexual political candidacies
Do Minorities Feel Welcome in Politics? A Cross-Cultural Study of the United States and Sweden

British Journal of Political Science

... In any case, we need not look far for evidence that crises dampen turnout. Studies find that a wide range of crises reduce turnout, including teen pregnancy and dropping out of school (Pacheco & Plutzer 2007), poor health (Burden et al., 2017;Ojeda and Pacheco 2017), the death of a spouse (Hobbs, Christakis, and Fowler 2014), divorce (Dehdari et al., 2022), the loss of Medicaid (Haselswerdt and Michener, 2019), unemployment (Burden and Wichowsky 2014), foreclosure (Hall et al., 2021;Shah and Wichowsky 2019), acute financial hardship (Schaub, 2021), loss of income (Schafer et al., 2022), and the death of a loved one from opioid overdose (Kaufman and Hersh 2020). The analyses offered below build on these studies but take a broader approach by considering patterns across a wide range of crises, varying contexts of crises (before and during the COVID-19 pandemic), and different forms of political participation. ...

The Ex-Factor: Examining the Gendered Effect of Divorce on Voter Turnout

American Political Science Association

... Yet, parties may only strategically recruit and mobilize immigrants who are often more socially conservative, which will be against their ideology on socio-cultural issues (Dancygier, 2017). It is also prevalent that political parties may discriminate against immigrants in recruitment, although to a lesser extent among left parties (Dancygier et al., 2015;Eriksson & Vernby, 2021). ...

Welcome to the Party? Ethnicity and the Interaction between Potential Activists and Party Gate-Keepers
  • Citing Article
  • May 2021

The Journal of Politics

... Members of social minorities continue to face barriers to accessing elected office globally (Besley et al., 2017;Clayton et al., 2019;Dancygier et al., 2015;Dancygier et al., 2021;Lajevardi et al., 2024;Lawless & Fox, 2015;O'Brien, 2015). These barriers stem from several factors, including an insufficient supply of minority aspirants (Dancygier et al., 2015;Fox & Lawless, 2011;Grahn & Thisell, 2024;Lindgren et al., 2022;van Oosten et al., 2024); as well as a lack of demand for minority candidates within political parties (Dancygier et al., 2021;Doherty et al., 2019;Norris & Lovenduski, 1995). ...

Candidate Supply Is Not a Barrier to Immigrant Representation: A Case–Control Study

American Journal of Political Science

... Employers adhere to an ethnic hierarchy when assessing applicants, and their assessments appear to be impervious to traits that signal productivity or integration. Fixed characteristics such as country of birth and gender over which applicants have no control are given much more weight in the hiring process than immigrants, and policy measures can influence this (42). Not many people want to live in a society where walls are erected between people, a society where people suffer from exclusion and special treatment. ...

Can immigrants counteract employer discrimination? A factorial field experiment reveals the immutability of ethnic hierarchies

... Our findings offer new and important insights into how minorities respond, sociopolitically, to dynamics of exclusion (Abdelgadir and Fouka 2020;Simonsen 2021), under what conditions exclusion mobilizes or demobilizes (Hobbs and Lajevardi 2019;Oskooii 2020;Weiss, Siegel, and Romney, 2022), and how minority inclusion can be encouraged (Alrababa'h et al. 2021;Williamson et al. 2021). Third, we extend research on the underrepresentation of historically disadvantaged groups by theorizing a new factor that might contribute to the sustaining (or reversal) of marginalization: historical representations (Bueno and Dunning 2017;Dancygier et al. 2019;Portmann and Stojanović 2019). We test for both supply and demand channels driving underrepresentation, an advance on a body of research that has primarily focused on demand-side explanations. ...

The Pipeline Is Not the Problem: A Case–Control Study of Immigrants’ Political Underrepresentation
  • Citing Article
  • January 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal

... This paper contributes to these strands of literature studying the tax morale effect of historical shocks (i.e., looking at outcomes in the very long run measured after the removal of the institutions under study). By studying a potential determinant of evasion of the TV tax, this paper is also related to previous studies that investigated how such evasion is affected by tax rates (Berg and Dahlberg, 2016), information provision (Fellner et al., 2013) or historical features of local institutions (Buonanno et al., 2019). ...

Post-WWI military disarmament and interwar fascism in Sweden

Historical Methods A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History

... Policy 6 disagreements within a party will probably also make other parties less likely to trust that the factionalized party will honor bargaining agreements, since differences in policy views might later manifest itself as a low level of party discipline. Other parties may also perceive factionalized parties' policy positions with less certainty if they are characterized by open internal dissension, and uncertainty may lead to the exclusion of these parties from bargaining if actors are risk-averse (see Bäck and Vernby 2003). ...

In the Eye of the Beholder: Sources of Uncertainty in MPs' Placements of Other Parties

... 4 Yet research, like public debate, has focussed mainly on individual leader traits and on the electoral dimension of the presidentialization thesis, less on the executive face and institutional effects on the executive. 5 Moreover, to date, empirical research in Sweden testing presidentialization has mainly examined the easily observable and relatively easily measurable selection of cabinet ministers; the distribution of ministerial posts (Bäck et al. 2007(Bäck et al. , 2009(Bäck et al. , 2011(Bäck et al. , 2012, at the expense of exploring the less evident and discernible effects of other factors including the media on institutional structures and distribution of power. While it is entirely relevant to use ministerial selection as indicator, it is questionable whether it is a particularly appropriate indicator of the operationalization/assessment of prime ministerial empowerment or of executive autonomy vis-à-vis the legislature. ...

Från Statsminister till President? Sveriges regeringschef i ett jämförande perspektiv

... 4 Yet research, like public debate, has focussed mainly on individual leader traits and on the electoral dimension of the presidentialization thesis, less on the executive face and institutional effects on the executive. 5 Moreover, to date, empirical research in Sweden testing presidentialization has mainly examined the easily observable and relatively easily measurable selection of cabinet ministers; the distribution of ministerial posts (Bäck et al. 2007(Bäck et al. , 2009(Bäck et al. , 2011(Bäck et al. , 2012, at the expense of exploring the less evident and discernible effects of other factors including the media on institutional structures and distribution of power. While it is entirely relevant to use ministerial selection as indicator, it is questionable whether it is a particularly appropriate indicator of the operationalization/assessment of prime ministerial empowerment or of executive autonomy vis-à-vis the legislature. ...

Presidentialisation from a Historical Perspective: Ministerial Selection and Reshuffling in Swedish Cabinets