Kai-Lan Chang's research while affiliated with University of Colorado and other places

Publications (37)

Article
Background Data on long-term trends of ozone exposure and attributable mortality across urban–rural catchment areas worldwide are scarce, especially for low-income and middle-income countries. This study aims to estimate trends in ozone concentrations and attributable mortality for urban–rural catchment areas worldwide. Methods In this modelling s...
Article
Full-text available
Quantification and attribution of long-term tropospheric ozone trends are critical for understanding the impact of human activity and climate change on atmospheric chemistry but are also challenged by the limited coverage of long-term ozone observations in the free troposphere where ozone has higher production efficiency and radiative potential com...
Article
Full-text available
Observational records of meteorological and chemical variables are imprinted by an unknown combination of anthropogenic activity, natural forcings, and internal variability. With a 15-member initial-condition ensemble generated from the CESM2-WACCM6 chemistry-climate model for 1950-2014, we extract signals of anthropogenic (‘forced’) change from th...
Preprint
Observational records of meteorological and chemical variables are imprinted by an unknown combination of anthropogenic activity, natural forcings, and internal variability. With a 15-member initial-condition ensemble generated from the CESM2-WACCM6 chemistry-climate model for 1950-2014, we extract signals of anthropogenic (‘forced’) change from th...
Preprint
Full-text available
Quantification and attribution of long-term tropospheric ozone trends are critical for understanding the impact of human activity and climate change on atmospheric chemistry, but are also challenged by the limited coverage of long-term ozone observations in the free troposphere where ozone has higher production efficiency and radiative potential co...
Article
Full-text available
City-level estimates of ambient ozone concentrations and associated disease burdens are sparsely available, especially for low and middle-income countries. Recently available high-resolution gridded global ozone concentration estimates allow for estimating ozone concentrations and mortality at urban scales and for urban-rural catchment areas worldw...
Article
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This study quantifies the association between the COVID‐19 economic downturn and 2020 tropospheric ozone anomalies above Europe and western North America, and their impact on long‐term trends. Anomaly detection for an atmospheric time series is usually carried out by identifying potentially aberrant data points relative to climatological values. Ho...
Article
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Atmospheric aerosol size and abundance influence radiative effects and climate change. To date, efforts to constrain global climate models' radiative forcing with in situ aerosol observations have been hamstrung by uncertainty. One source of error, the regional “representation error,” arises when accurate but sparse single‐point measurements of atm...
Article
L'ozone troposphérique est un gaz à effet de serre, nocif pour la santé humaine, les cultures et la productivité des écosystèmes. Il contrôle la capacité oxydante de la troposphère. Du fait de sa grande variabilité spatiale et temporelle et d'observations en nombre limité, il n'avait pas encore été possible de quantifier les tendances de l'ozone tr...
Article
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This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to (1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry, (2) describe a range of trend-detection methods, and (3) demonstrate effective means of conveyin...
Article
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Plain Language Summary Worldwide actions to contain the COVID‐19 virus have closed factories, grounded airplanes, and have generally reduced travel and transportation. Less fuel was burnt, and less exhaust was emitted into the atmosphere. Due to these measures, the concentration of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) decreased in...
Article
Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we...
Article
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We investigate the contributions of emission changes from 10 world regions, as well as the global methane concentration change, on the global tropospheric ozone burden change from 1980 to 2010. The modeled global tropospheric ozone burden has increased by 28.1 Tg, with 26.7% (7.5 Tg) of this change attributed to the global methane increase. Southea...
Book
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Summary Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a sta...
Article
Full-text available
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publ...
Article
Full-text available
Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardise...
Article
Full-text available
Detecting a tropospheric ozone trend from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (typically once per week) is challenging due to the short-lived anomalies in the time series resulting from ozone's high temporal variability. To enhance trend detection, we have developed a sophisticated statistical approach that utilizes a geoadditive model to assess o...
Article
Full-text available
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas, is detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity, and controls the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Because of its high spatial and temporal variability and limited observations, quantifying net tropospheric ozone changes across the Northern Hemisphere on time scales of two...
Article
Full-text available
Extracting globally representative trend information from lower tropospheric ozone observations is extremely difficult due to the highly variable distribution and interannual variability of ozone, and the ongoing shift of ozone precursor emissions from high latitudes to low latitudes. Here we report surface ozone trends at 27 globally distributed r...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Detecting a tropospheric ozone trend from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (typically once per week) is challenging due to the noise in the time series resulting from ozone's high temporal variability. To enhance trend detection we have developed a sophisticated statistical approach that utilizes a geoadditive model to assess ozone va...
Article
Full-text available
Observations show robust near-surface trends in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation towards the end of the twentieth century, including a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet1,2, a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode1,3,4,5,6 and an expansion of the Hadley cell7,8. It has been established that these trends were driven by ozone de...
Article
Full-text available
From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have different uncertainties and biases, and the data records differ with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness. In th...
Article
Full-text available
We have developed a new statistical approach (M³Fusion) for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites around the world with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models to produce a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than can be provided by any individual model. The ozone observations from...
Chapter
Full-text available
One of the primary motivations of the LOTUS effort is to attempt to reconcile the discrepancies in ozone trend results from the wealth of literature on the subject. Doing so requires investigating the various methodolo-gies employed to derive long-term trends in ozone as well as to examine the large array of possible variables that feed into those...
Chapter
The ultimate goal of LOTUS is to improve confidence in calculated ozone trend values via an improved under-standing of the uncertainties. Chapter 3 highlighted many of the challenges facing analyses of long-term ozone time series, and despite the fact that many of those challenges still need to be addressed, it is worthwhile to assess the trend res...
Article
Full-text available
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved method...
Article
Summary Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improv...
Article
Full-text available
Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome this challenge, we employ a basis representation of the model outputs and observations: we match these decomp...
Article
Full-text available
We have developed a new statistical approach (M3Fusion) for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites around the world with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models to produce a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than can be provided by any individual model. The ozone observations from...
Article
Full-text available
Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone’s global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains...
Article
Full-text available
Observing systems consisting of a finite number of in situ monitoring stations can provide high-quality measurements with the ability to quality assure both the instruments and the data but offer limited information over larger geographic areas. This paper quantifies the spatial coverage represented by a finite set of monitoring stations by using g...
Article
The Bayesian computer model calibration method has proven to be effective in a wide range of applications. In this framework, input parameters are tuned by comparing model outputs to observations. However, this methodology becomes computationally expensive for large spatial model outputs. To overcome this challenge, we employ a truncated basis repr...

Citations

... due to a longer growing season with rising air temperature (Proietti et al., 2020;Sicard et al., 2020). Hence, O 3 -control policies require integrated consideration of atmospheric chemistry, and O 3 remains a persistent environmental issue, especially in the northern hemisphere (Akimoto and Tanimoto, 2022;Cuesta et al., 2021;Malashock et al., 2022). ...
... We apply data quality-control measures to exclude unreliable data outliers and select stations with continuous observations from 2014 to 2021 for trend analysis. Following previous studies 19,54,52 , we exclude data points (1) with values greater than 500 ppbv or less than 0 ppbv, (2) with an hourly standardized value ( z i = ...
... Neighborhood-scale CTM simulations are computationally expensive, which has limited our ability to simulate full seasons or multiple years. Previous studies have demonstrated that internal meteorological variability can have profound consequences on pollutant concentrations (Fiore et al., 2022;Garcia-Menendez et al., 2017), and this facet should be remembered when considering our results. A key example from our study is the high O 3 concentration in our April 2019 simulation. ...
... PM 10 and O 3 are considered to represent a major part of the problem [12]. Ozone exposure has significantly increased worldwide, leading to a 46% increase in ozoneattributable mortality from 2000 to 2019 [13]. PM 10 and O 3 are linked to a rise in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortalities [11,[14][15][16][17][18]. ...
... These findings, together with Figure 1, imply a role for convective lofting of ozone and precursors to the free troposphere, where ozone production is more efficient and the lifetime is longer than near the surface, A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t in driving the overall increase in the tropospheric ozone burden (Berntsen et al., 1996;Naik et al., 2005;Sauvage et al., 2007). Increasing aircraft NO x emissions over this period may also play role in the overall burden increase (Wang et al., 2022). The ozone increases in the lower troposphere are largest in the first two decades of the simulation, more in line with the overall trends in global anthropogenic emissions (Table S2). ...
... About 74% of the European Union (EU) population lives in cities (European Council, 2016). In these urban environments, the most harmful air pollutants in terms of human health effects are tropospheric ozone (O 3 ), particles with an aerodynamic diameter lower than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) (Anenberg et al., 2022;Malashock et al., 2022;Southerland et al., 2022). These pollutants are associated with hospital admissions and premature deaths for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (e.g., Samoli et al., 2011;Hoek et al., 2013;Atkinson et al., 2014;Cohen et al., 2017;Nuvolone et al., 2018;Khomenko et al., 2021;Zhang et al., 2022). ...
... Ozone precursor emissions (i.e.,NO x (NO + NO 2 ) and CO) are generated from various sources, including power plants, industrial boilers, cement kilns, turbines, cars, trucks, and off-road vehicles (including boats, construction equipment, etc.) Borhani et al., 2016aBorhani et al., , 2017bBorhani et al., , 2019Borhani et al., , 2023Cheraghi & Borhani, 2016a, 2016bHoveidi et al., 2017;Maddah et al., 2022;Mazzeo et al., 2005;Motesaddi Zarandi et al., 2015). Ozone concentrations are usually measured using ground-based and satellite systems (Chang et al., 2022;Massagué et al., 2022;Reshi et al., 2022;Wang et al., 2021). For example, Borhani et al. (2022c) investigated the changes in tropospheric ozone and its relation to ozone precursors (i.e., CO, NO 2 , and NO) and meteorological conditions observed at 22 groundbased stations of the Air Quality Control Company (AQCC) in Tehran from 2001 to 2020. ...
... accessed on 23 January 2023). Specifically, the warm-season average of 8-h daily maximum O 3 concentrations were estimated by the Bayesian maximum entropy method by combining the O 3 ground measurement and chemical transport model estimates [24]. In situ O 3 measurement data were retrieved from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report and the China National Environmental Monitoring Center Network. ...
... Our modelling analysis confirms that the increase of ozone concentration observed during the lockdown in many urban locations (see e.g. Gkatzelis et al., 2021;Sokhi et al., 2022) is limited to the cities, major roads and large conurbation areas, while rural background areas show different behaviours, with prevailing ozone concentration decrease, in agreement with the observational analyses provided by Cristofanelli et al. (2021) and Steinbrecht et al. (2021) and with model simulation results obtained for central to southern Europe by Matthias et al. (2021). ...
... The same meteorology was applied to all runs to eliminate the influence of future climate change on air quality. Chemically active stratospheric species (such as O 3 , NO, NO 2 , and N 2 O 5 ) were prescribed as monthly mean distributions using climatology from the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model simulations Zhang et al., 2021). ...