Kai Barron’s research while affiliated with WZB Berlin Social Science Center and other places

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Publications (14)


Motivated political reasoning: On the emergence of belief-value constellations
  • Article

December 2024

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3 Reads

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1 Citation

European Economic Review

Kai Barron

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Anna Becker

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Steffen Huck

Everyday Econometricians: Selection Neglect and Overoptimism When Learning from Others

August 2024

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3 Reads

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20 Citations

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

This study explores selection neglect in an experimental investment game where individuals can learn from others’ outcomes. Experiment 1 examines aggregate-level equilibrium behavior. We find strong evidence of selection neglect and corroborate several comparative static predictions of Jehiel’s (2018) model, showing that the severity of the bias is aggravated by the sophistication of other individuals and moderated when information is more correlated across individuals. Experiment 2 focuses on individual decision-making, isolating the influence of beliefs from possible confounding factors. This allows us to classify individuals according to their degree of naïvety and explore the limits of, and potential remedies for, selection neglect. (JEL C91, D12, D83, D91, G41)





Discrimination, Narratives and Family History: An Experiment with Jordanian Host and Syrian Refugee Children
  • Article
  • Full-text available

August 2021

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31 Reads

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12 Citations

Review of Economics and Statistics

Kai Barron

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Steffen Huck

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[...]

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We measure the prevalence of discrimination between Jordanian host and Syrian refugee children attending school in Jordan. Using a simple sharing experiment, we find only a small degree of out-group discrimination. However, Jordanian children with Palestinian roots do not discriminate at all, suggesting that a family history of refugee status can generate solidarity with new refugees. We also find that parents’ narratives about the refugee crisis are correlated with their children's degree of out-group discrimination, particularly among Syrian refugee children, suggesting that discriminatory preferences are being transmitted through parental attitudes.

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Figure 1: Sequence of experimental parts
Figure 3: Average stated beliefs by treatment
Figure 4: Propensity to Choose Ability-Contingent Incentives
Figure 5: Effort choices across rounds, by treatment
Treatment variation in ability task

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Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment

May 2021

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330 Reads

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11 Citations

Scandinavian Journal of Economics

Confidence is often seen as an important determinant of success. Empirical evidence regarding the causal effect of confidence on choices is, however, sparse. Using a stylized laboratory experiment, we examine the effect of an increase in confidence on two important labor market choices: (i) the amount of ability-contingent earnings risk to take on, and (ii) the subsequent effort choice. We find that increased confidence leads subjects to take on more ability-contingent earnings risk. However, effort levels are unaffected. Overall, the upward shift in confidence is detrimental for low-ability workers due to high baseline levels of confidence. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.


Fig. 3 Comparison of beliefs after the receipt of a single signal and an exogenous prior
Comparison of incentive summary tables between treatment groups
Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?

April 2020

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74 Reads

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88 Citations

Experimental Economics

Bayes’ statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Some recent research has questioned the use of Bayes’ rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight ‘good news’ relative to ‘bad news’ when updating ego-relevant beliefs. In this paper, we present experimental evidence testing whether this ‘good-news, bad-news’ effect is present in a financial decision making context (i.e. a domain that is important for understanding much economic decision making). We find no evidence of asymmetric updating in this domain. In contrast, in our experiment, belief updating is close to the Bayesian benchmark on average. However, we show that this average behavior masks substantial heterogeneity in individual updating behavior. We find no evidence in support of a sizeable subgroup of asymmetric updators.


Nudging cooperation in public goods provision

April 2020

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37 Reads

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21 Citations

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics

This paper experimentally studies two simple interventions that an authority figure might employ to promote cooperation in a public goods game when accurate feedback about contributions is not available. The first intervention aims to nudge participants to higher contribution levels by labeling contributions above a particular threshold as being ‘good’. Such a ‘norm-nudge’ is intended to provide subjects with a clear, valenced focal point upon which they can coordinate. The second intervention aims to exploit lying aversion to induce higher contributions by requiring subjects to announce how much they contributed. We find that the nudge leads to a striking increase in the cooperation rate. By contrast, the ex post announcement mechanism does not have a significant effect on the cooperation rate. We present suggestive evidence that the nudge we use provides subjects with a focal point, helping conditional cooperators to coordinate their contributions.



Citations (10)


... Moral values and factual beliefs also contribute to the entrenchment of polarized norms. Barron et al. (2024) investigate the relationship between moral values ('ought' statements) and factual beliefs ('is' statements) in the context of political polarization. Their large-scale online experiment with over 1,800 U.S. participants demonstrates that when people reflect on their values, their factual beliefs shift to align with those values, reinforcing pre-existing political biases. ...

Reference:

Social Norms: Enforcement, Breakdown & Polarization
Motivated political reasoning: On the emergence of belief-value constellations
  • Citing Article
  • December 2024

European Economic Review

... Indeed, there exists a large body of research demonstrating systematic biases in economic agents' belief updating behavior (see e.g. Ambuehl and Li, 2018;Esponda and Vespa, 2018;Barron et al., 2019;Enke, 2020). In particular, we consider understanding the effects of selection neglect or coarse reasoning as modeled by Jehiel and Koessler (2008) as well as Eyster and Rabin (2005) on the possibilites for information transmission in the presence of fake news a promising direction for future research. ...

Everyday Econometricians: Selection Neglect and Overoptimism When Learning from Others
  • Citing Article
  • August 2024

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

... We show that participants can recall mostly SMS content that they were already aware of and that called them to action. This is in line with other studies that showed SMS don't always increase knowledge but can still work as a reminder or nudge despite not clearly transmitting new information (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2020;Bettinger et al., 2021) and is supported by the existence of a strong demand for reminders in medical adherence due to memory costs (Barron et al., 2022). Moreover, our intervention allows us to gain insights into the facility choice that individuals make. ...

When Do Reminders Work? Memory Constraints and Medical Adherence
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... For reminders that focus on less frequent or even one-off events such as college enrollment or parking tickets, interindividual differences in the effectiveness of reminders have been found, with low-responders being more likely to come from disadvantaged groups 21,29 . In recent years, efforts have also focused on how the positive effects of reminders can be enhanced, through the timing and frequency with which they are sent 30 but also through the amount of information included 31 . ...

When Do Reminders Work? Memory Constraints and Medical Adherence
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Among Syrian refugee adolescents in Turkey, 65% reported loneliness (Solmaz et al., 2021), and among Syrian refugee children in Jordan, the prevalence was 25% (Hamdan-Mansour et al., 2017). Discrimination has been shown to be associated with worse mental health in Syrian refugees, both adults, and children, across different cultures (Barron et al., 2021;Çelebi et al., 2017;Demir and Ozgul, 2019;Kandemir et al., 2018;Tinghög et al., 2017;Walker and Zuberi, 2020). Religious alienation, in this case being Muslim, seems to increase the risk of discrimination (Kandemir et al., 2018;von Haumeder et al., 2019). ...

Discrimination, Narratives and Family History: An Experiment with Jordanian Host and Syrian Refugee Children

Review of Economics and Statistics

... Employment confidence, a pivotal metric affecting career decisions and labor market entry, reflects individuals' self-assessment of employability skills, job market knowledge, and their ability to meet employer expectations (Barron & Gravert, 2022;Qenani et al., 2014). High employment confidence correlates with better job prospects and psychological well-being during career transitions, spurring proactive career preparation and readiness for job opportunities, which, in turn, enhances the likelihood of career success (Creed et al., 2003;R. ...

Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment

Scandinavian Journal of Economics

... The authors find in-group favoritism for Syrian refugees living in both countries, but not for nationals, and find that nationals do not discriminate against refugees. Using a different age cohort as sample, Barron et al. (2020) conduct experiments with native Jordanian children and Syrian refugee children attending school in Jordan. They find little discrimination using a sharing experimental task. ...

Discrimination, Narratives and Family History: An Experiment with Jordanian Host and Syrian Refugee Children
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Gråd et al. (2024) found that three types of nudges increased charity donations in an online experiment. In public goods games, setting a default option leads to higher contributions and facilitates the coordination of decisions (Barron & Nurminen, 2020). This effect is often attributed to the default option acting as a reference point that simplifies decision-making and encourages cooperative behavior in collective action. ...

Nudging cooperation in public goods provision
  • Citing Article
  • April 2020

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics

... This self-serving bias ensures that their risk taking behavior remains consistent with their desire to improve or maintain their social standing. Studies show that individuals process information asymmetrically, giving more weight to positive news than to negative news (Coutts, 2019;Kuhnen, 2015;Mobius et al., 2011;Barron, 2021). This asymmetry means that positive information about peers' successes is more influential in shaping one's risk taking decisions than negative information about peers' failures. ...

Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?

Experimental Economics

... Belief in one's ability to do a job will greatly affect work outcomes (Barron & Gravert, 2018;Ristiani & Lusianingrum, 2022). Teachers who have high academic achievement and are supported by high self-efficacy will view their work not as a burden but as a very mild challenge. ...

Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment
  • Citing Article
  • January 2018

SSRN Electronic Journal