K. K. Mourya’s scientific contributions

Explains the use of time series modeling ( Box-Ljung test, and ARIMA model) to predict the ragi (Eleusine coracana) production and area in the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. It was shown that the ARIMA(Autoregressive integrated moving average) model with the best fit was (2,2,1) Furthermore, using our time series data set from 1966–1967 to 2022–2023 and the ARIMA (2,1,2) model, we attempted to ascertain as precisely as possible the future condition of Ragi (Eleusine coracana) for a maximum of ten years. The area of ragi in Karnataka would continue to decline between 2010 and 2015, with occasional increases, according to our examination of yearly data on the crop. For Uttar Pradesh, however, the situation of both area and production revealed.

The present study was carried out to estimate the trend value of area, production and productivity and to measure growth rate of major millets viz., Pearl Millet, Sorghum, Finger Millet and Small Millet in India. The secondary data of the area, production and productivity of millets between the periods 1966-67 to 2020-21 has been collected form https://www.milletstats.com/apy-stats/ by using descriptive statistics, simple linear regression and compound growth rate data was analyzed. The overall time series data showed that the cultivation area has been reducing with 5.22% per annum, production and productivity of pearl millet showed that increasing with 2.34% per annum, the area or production in sorghum has been reducing at 3.12%, 2.14% but productivity of sorghum has showed the increasing trend at 1.75%. In case of finger millet, the data showed the reducing trend for are and production at 1.33 or 1.75% and productivity of finger millet showed the increasing trend at 2.22%. The area, production has been reducing 4.86% and productivity of small millet has been increasing. The consumption of millets is less due to awareness about millets in peoples. The study will help to increase the consumption rate of millets and avoid the nutritional deficiency in humans.