Julia Repenning’s scientific contributions

Download: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/technischer-anhang-der-treibhausgas-projektionen --- The 2024 projections describe the projected development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany in a with existing measures scenario (MMS) and a with additional measures scenario (MWMS). The period modelled covers 2024 to 2050. The report follows the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. For total GHG emissions (excluding land use, land use change and forestry), the two scenarios result in a projected reduction of 64 % by 2030 and of 87 % (MMS) and 88 % (MWMS) by 2050 compared to 1990. There are several main drivers of the projected emissions development. Renewable energies are strongly expanded. The renewable share of gross electricity consumption increases to more than 72 % by 2030 in both scenarios. Energy efficiency and energy saving measures lead to a significantly lower final and primary energy consumption. In addition, there are measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions not related to energy consumption. To be able to better estimate deviations due to changed assumptions, a total of 16 sensitivity analyses were carried out. In these, the parameters for economic growth, population, fuel and EU ETS prices, industrial production volumes and the lifetimes of heating systems were changed.

The German Projection Report 2023 describes the projected development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany in a ‚With existing measures‘ Scenario (MMS) as well as in a ‚With additional Measures‘ Scenario (MWMS). The period covered is 2021 to 2050. The report follows the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. For total GHG emissions (excluding land use, land use change and forestry), the MMS results in a projected reduction of 63 % from 1990 to 2030, and a reduction of 83 % is projected by 2050. The MWMS projects a reduction of 65 % by 2030 and 87 % by 2050 compared to 1990. In the MMS the mitigation targets of the Federal Climate Change Act are projected to not be met by 2030. The cumulative deviation from the target is projected at 331million tons of CO2equivalent. Considerung also additional measures the cumulative deviation from the target is projected to be reduced to 194 million tons of CO2equivalent. There are several main drivers of the projected emissions development: On the one hand, renewable energies are strongly expanded. For example, the renewable share of gross electricity consumption increases to over 80 % in both scenarios by 2030. On the other hand, energy efficiency and energy saving measures lead to significantly lower final and primary energy consumption. In addition, there are measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions not related to energy consumption. In order to be able to better estimate deviations in the results due to changed assumptions, a total of six sensitivity analyses were carried out. In these, the parameters for economic growth, fuel and EU-ETS prices, BEHG prices (national carbon pricing) and the degree of biomass use were changed.

https://www.bmu.de/download/projektionsbericht-der-bundesregierung-2021 Projektionsbericht 2021 für Deutschland Gemäß Artikel 18 der Verordnung (EU) 2018/1999 des Europäischen Parlaments und des Rates vom 11. Dezember 2018 über das Governance-System für die Energieunion und für den Klimaschutz, zur Änderung der Verordnungen (EG) Nr. 663/2009 und (EG) Nr. 715/2009 des Europäischen Parlaments und des Rates sowie §10 (2) des Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetzes

The German National Climate Initiative (NCI) presents one cornerstone of the German Government's ambitious plans to reduce GHG emissions. It was initiated in 2008 to contribute to the German climate targets and addresses businesses, consumers and local authorities in areas with significant efficiency and mitigation potentials that cannot be tapped by other instruments. The NCI aims to stimulate behavioural change and investment towards energy efficiency and lower GHG emissions by bringing together different actors, initiating local initiatives, reducing barriers and setting examples for multiplication and imitation. The NCI supports diverse projects and programs including campaigns, broad and specific information programs, local energy/climate concepts as well as stimulus programs for efficient street lighting, commercial cooling systems or household-scale cogeneration facilities. Each program/project addresses at least one target group: consumers, municipalities, business and/or education. In the last decade, the NCI has funded more than 25,000 projects for around €800 million. The NCI is the first German climate program, which has been subject to policy evaluation from the very outset. A systematic theory-based methodology was developed to address the challenges connected with the broad range of intervention types. Clustering interventions according to the program logic and mapping their causal chains proved very useful to discern the different levels of impact related to different types of intervention. This paper describes the activities carried out under the NCI, presents the evaluation approach, and illustrates the findings of the evaluation (on investments, GHG reduction, employment effects etc.). We find substantial differences between information based and investment-based activities, and between the various information-based project approaches. Moreover, the paper describes success factors and lessons learned that could also be helpful for the design and implementation of other policy programs.

The German National Climate Initiative (NCI) is a cornerstone of the German Government's ambitious plans to reduce GHG emissions. It was initiated in 2008 to contribute to the German climate targets. The NCI aims to change behavior and stimulate investment towards lower GHG emissions by bringing together different actors, taking local initiative, reducing barriers and setting examples for multiplication and imitation. The NCI funds diverse projects and programs including campaigns, broad and specific information programs, local energy/climate concepts as well as stimulus programs for efficient lighting, renewables or household-scale cogeneration facilities. Each program/project tackles at least one target group: consumers, municipalities, business and/or education. Since its start, the NCI has funded more than 25,000 projects with close to 800 million Euros. The NCI is the first German mitigation program which has been subject to policy evaluation from the outset on. A systematic theory-based methodology was developed to take the challenges due to the broad range of intervention types adequately into consideration. Clustering interventions according to program logic and mapping out their causal chains proved very useful to attribute levels of impact to types of intervention. This paper describes the activities under the NCI, presents the evaluation approach and provides findings of the evaluation (on investments, GHG reduction, employment effects etc.). We found substantial differences between information-based and investment-based policy instruments, and between the various information-based project approaches. Moreover, the paper describes success factors and lessons learned that could also be helpful in other contexts.

Arbeitspaket 1.1 im Forschungs- und Entwicklungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit: Wissenschaftliche Unterstützung „Erstellung und Begleitung des Klimaschutzplans 2050“ für das FKZ UM 15 41 1860 Die in dieser Analyse untersuchten Szenarien machen deutlich, dass die nahezu vollständige Vermeidung der Emission von Treibhausgasen bis zum Jahr 2050 eine große Herausforderung für Deutschland darstellt und mit einem umfassenden Strukturwandel einhergeht. Die Studien zeigen aber auch, dass die langfristigen energie- und klimapolitischen Ziele der Bundesregierung erreicht werden können. Dies erfordert wesentliche Effizienzverbesserung in allen Sektoren, die nahezu vollständige Dekarbonisierung des Energiesystems und einen starken Rückgang der nicht energiebedingten Emissionen. Aufgabe der Politik wird sein, geeignete Rahmenbedingungen für diese Entwicklungen zu schaffen.