Julia Mortera's research while affiliated with Università Degli Studi Roma Tre and other places
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Publications (6)
Justice systems are sometimes called upon to evaluate cases in which healthcare professionals are suspected of killing their patients illegally. These cases are difficult to evaluate because they involve at least two levels of uncertainty. Commonly in a murder case it is clear that a homicide has occurred, and investigators must resolve uncertainty...
Suspicions about medical murder sometimes arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an apparently unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular nurse. But also a single disturbing event might trigger suspicion about a particular nurse, and this might then lead to investigation of events which happene...
Suspicions about medical murder sometimes arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an apparently unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular nurse. But also a single disturbing event might trigger suspicion about a particular nurse, and this might then lead to investigation of events which happene...
We give an overview of various topics tied to the expression of uncertainty about a variable or event by means of a probability distribution. We first consider methods used to evaluate a single probability forecaster, including scoring rules, calibration, resolution and refinement. We next revisit methods for combining several experts’ distribution...
In both criminal cases and civil cases, there is an increasing demand for the analysis of DNA mixtures involving relationships. The goal might be, for example, to identify the contributors to a DNA mixture where the donors may be related, or to infer the relationship between individuals based on a mixture. This paper introduces an approach to model...
In both criminal cases and civil cases there is an increasing demand for the analysis of DNA mixtures involving relationships. The goal might be, for example, to identify the contributors to a DNA mixture where the unknown donors may be related, or to infer the relationship between individuals based on a DNA mixture. This paper applies a new approa...
Citations
... It is unlikely that a 1-in-10-million coincidence will incriminate any particular medical professional, but given the very large number of medical professionals in the world, it is likely, perhaps even inevitable, that such a coincidence will affect the patients of some medical professional at some medical facility somewhere in the world. 7 Consequently, if we take the 1-in-10-million coincidence to be evidence of medical misconduct, it is inevitable that we will falsely incriminate innocent people. Thus, the existence of a cluster of deaths among patients of a medical professional should not, in itself, be taken as proof of criminality. ...
![[object Object]](https://i1.rgstatic.net/ii/profile.image/279081645035524-1443549657220_Q64/Francesco-Dotto.jpg)
![[object Object]](https://i1.rgstatic.net/ii/profile.image/272840830222350-1442061731574_Q64/Richard-Gill-3.jpg)
... The authors of [3] also developed a model named DNAmixtures which enabled combination of DNA profiles from different crime-stain samples, where the contributors could have different mixture proportions in each of the extracts. Green and Mortera (2021) [4] implemented KinMix as an extension of DNAmixtures for modeling DNA mixtures with related contributors. STRmix™ (from version 2.5) and Statistefix (from version 4.0) have the capability to evaluate samples analyzed by different multiplexes [5], [6]. ...
... This suggests that an informed prior for genotype combinations based on a pedigree might be an alternative to specifying an informed prior for the mixture proportions in these cases. Such an approach is taken by Green and Mortera [19] and Green et al. [32], however no data is available to compare the effects on the mixture deconvolution of an assumption of relatedness and an informed prior on the mixture proportions. ...
