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January 2009
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8 Reads
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1 Citation
In the Summer and Fall 2008 issues of Foresight, Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan described 13 regression models used to forecast presidential elections and reported the models' forecasts for the 2008 US presidential election. Here is their audit of the results. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009
January 2009
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315 Reads
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7 Citations
At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46.6% (as of the end of November). In his Hot New Research column in this issue, Paul Goodwin discusses the benefits of combining forecasts. The success of the Pollyvote should further enhance interest is this approach to forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009
February 2008
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38 Reads
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12 Citations
foresight
With the November 2008 U.S. presidential election looming, Randall and Alfred describe the enduring forecasting models that have been created by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual. The most stable models since 1996 have consistently forecast the election winner, with an average error of less than 3%. While not all of the players have issued their forecasts for this year’s final vote, the models suggest that the outlook for the Republican Party is negative. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008
January 2008
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23 Reads
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3 Citations
As a follow-up to their Summer 2008 article in Foresight, Jones and Kuzan present a table of 13 regression model forecasts of the major-party vote in the U.S. presidential election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008
January 2006
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14 Reads
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4 Citations
The International Institute of Forecasters, publisher of Foresight, sponsored a competition awarding a $1000 prize to the modelers that most accurately forecast the outcome of the 2006 U. S. Congressional election. This brief article describes models previously used to forecast midterm elections. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006
January 2005
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49 Reads
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9 Citations
No one came closer to predicting the outcome of the 2004 U. S. presidential election than the team at politicalforecasting.com, also called pollyvote.com. They tell us how they did it and whether they think they can do it again. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005
... While the Ratio and Horvitz-Thompson estimator are both well suited for cluster analysis, we define (Definitions 2.4, 2.5) a linear regression estimator for unequal clusters, which, in many scenarios, is a better fit than the other two. We note that the linear regression estimator was utilized in conjunction with simple random sampling to successfully predict the results of the Greek legislative elections of 1990, using the municipalities as clusters [16], as well as the US presidential elections [17]. ...
January 2009
... The PollyVote has been used to forecast the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections in 2004 (Cuzán, Armstrong, & Jones, 2005), 2008 (Graefe, Armstrong, Jones, & Cuzán, 2009), 2012 (Graefe, Armstrong, Jones, & Cuzán, 2014a), and 2016 (Campbell et al., 2017). In addition, the method has been tested retrospectively for the three elections from 1992 to 2000 (Graefe et al., 2014b). ...
January 2009
... However, one interesting question which has emerged from this line of research is to what extent these heuristics continue to effect voting decisions in the modern world (Antonakis & Dalgas, 2009;Jones & Cuzán, 2008;Laustsen & Peterson, 2017;Lawson et al., 2010). Recently, the underlying evolved psychological mechanism responsible for this unique ability has been conceptualized as a type of internal regulatory variable-the "leader index"-which determines both when such coordination is needed and if so, who is the best to follow (cf. ...
February 2008
foresight
... ry for checks to have any value whatsoever. That said, we have made a number of assumptions along the way that could possibly affect our conclusions. This section briefly discusses the consequences of modifying some of the more salient ones. 40 Existing forecasting models of midterm election often include a variable for presidential popularity (cf. Jones and Cuzán 2006), with most finding that when the president is unpopular, his party does worse. Executive Behavior. We have not allowed the Executive to have private information about his ability or to be a partisan, as we have the Overseer. While this has simplified our analysis, our conclusions about the value of partisan oversight hold when either a ...
January 2006
... Finally, researchers have recently started harnessing the power of artificial intelligence and automated sentiment analysis to detect trends in support using big data gleaned from online searches or social media and news content (see, e.g., Behnert et al. 2024;Burnap et al. 2016;Gayo-Avello 2013;Rizk et al. 2023). The increasing diversity of forecasting approaches have also prompted some researchers to combine different methods (Cuzán et al. 2005;Graefe 2023;Lock and Gelman 2010;Rothschild 2015). ...
January 2005
