Jonathan R. Moskaitis's research while affiliated with United States Naval Research Laboratory and other places

... Numerical ocean, weather, seasonal and climate forecasting systems across the world are tending towards becoming coupled ensemble data assimilation prediction systems Buizza, 2021;Fujii et al., 2021;Komaromi, 2021), including a better coverage of the inter-relationships among the geophysical domains of the ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, land, and biogeochemistry (Sandery et al., 2020;O'Kane et al., 2021). Forecasting systems are also increasingly applied to finer spatiotemporal scales. ...

... The equatorial penetration of a midlatitude westerly trough or/and the associated cutoff low often provides favorable synoptic conditions for sudden turning motion or recurvature of a TC (Lander, 1996). Some previous statistical studies have indicated that part of the intensity forecast errors are related to errors in the predicted TC track, or equivalently skillful intensity forecasts may benefit from the improved track forecasts (DeMaria, 2010;Du et al., 2013;Kieu et al., 2021). ...

... We compared our method ARRU-Net with four deep-learning methods: GCN-LSTM [35], SegNet [36], GC-LSTM [37], and CNN + SVM/LSTM [38]. As shown in Table 3, the accuracy was 97.62%, which was much higher than that of other deep-learning methods. ...

... There are large areas with little data, in particular above the oceans and in the Antarctic. However, more data lead to improved numerical simulations of both local and worldwide weather, and in particular in determining the boundary layer altitude capped by a temperature inversion [4,5], which is of high interest for, e.g., energy meteorology and the transport of pollutants [6,7]. ...

... Surface wind field estimates are derived from real-time operational forecasts made by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) (Doyle et al., 2012(Doyle et al., , 2014. COAMPS-TC is a regional model which uses an outer fixed grid mesh (36-km horizontal resolution) and two nested storm-following grid meshes (12-and 4-km resolution) with 40 vertical levels ranging in altitude from 10 m above the surface to approximately 30 km. ...

... Other modeling studies also conducted sensitivity tests to determine and quantify the influence of model configurations and various physical schemes on the rainfall of Morakot. Hendricks et al. (2016) concluded that the extreme rainfall of Morakot is reasonably predictable, although the choice of cloud microphysics can affect the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). However, the intensity and the track of Morakot are more sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme than cloud microphysics. ...

... 16-18), but those runs are not included in Table 3. The other exception is the study of Hendricks et al. (2011), in which the 5-km TC-following mesh was small (925 km  925 km) and the predicted translation speed was too slow before and too fast after landfall, and consequently the peak rainfall was only about half the observed value. The authors attributed this deficiency to a predicted premature dissipation of Goni, an inaccurate interaction between Morakot and the southwesterly monsoon, and the coarse grid spacing that was inadequate to resolve the topography. ...

... COSMIC-2 RO measurements have high (< 100 m) vertical resolution, all-sky observability, deep tropospheric signal penetration, and unlike satellite radiances, they do not require bias correction (Ho et al. 2020a). Given that NWP model forecasts of TC genesis and intensification have shown strong sensitivity to environmental lower-to-mid tropospheric water vapor (Sippel and Zhang 2008;Doyle et al. 2012;Teng et al. 2021), assimilated COSMIC-2 RO profiles could potentially provide a valuable sampling of TC environments and improve the model forecasts. ...

... Nothing much has changed since. Armstrong (2001) called for further research, while Moskaitis and Hansen (2006) asked "Deterministic forecasting and verification: A busted system?" ...

... Despite the widespread use of MAE and MAE skill in operational and TC-community verification, alternative approaches to TC verification that use the NHC-based verification methodology have appeared in peer-reviewed literature. For example, some have evaluated the entire distribution of errors when verifying TC forecasts by calculating the median absolute error (MDAE), confidence intervals, and analyzing boxplots of the distribution at each lead time (e.g., Powell and Aberson 2001;Moskaitis 2008;Galarneau and Davis 2013;Alaka et al. 2020;Sippel et al. 2021). Even further, the WMO report on verification methods for TCs describes additional metrics that can be used, such as the interquartile range, the root-mean-square error, and correlation coefficients (WMO 2013, their Table 3). ...