Jonas Hedegaard Hansen's research while affiliated with University of Copenhagen and other places

Publications (14)

Article
Full-text available
Scholars have long noted that couples are more likely to vote compared to individuals who live alone, and that partners' turnout behavior is strongly correlated. This study examines a large administrative dataset containing detailed information about validated turnout and the timing of individuals moving in together, and finds evidence of a substan...
Article
Full-text available
Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well a...
Article
Citizens who abstain from voting in consecutive elections and inequality in turnout in democratic elections constitute a challenge to the legitimacy of democracy. Applying the law of dispersion, which stipulates higher levels of turnout and higher levels of equality in turnout are positively related, we study turnout patterns across different types...
Article
Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately...
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Declining levels of turnout are a problem in European elections. Are Get Out The Vote campaigns the solution to the problem? While many studies have investigated such campaigns in the US, little is known about their effect in Europe. The article presents a field experiment in which encouragement to vote in an upcoming Danish election is delivered t...
Article
This article investigates how election information such as opinion polls can influence voting intention. The bandwagon effect claims that voters ‘float along’: a party experiencing increased support receives more support, and vice versa. Through a large national survey experiment, evidence is found of a bandwagon effect among Danish voters. When vo...
Article
Despite the widespread scholarly attention given to get-out-the-vote tactics the recent one and a half decade, few have studied the effect of short text messages (SMS) on voter turnout, and no previous such study has been conducted outside the US. We analyze four SMS experiments with more than 300,000 voters conducted in relation to two elections i...
Article
Full-text available
A vast amount of experimental evidence suggests that get-out-the-vote encouragements delivered through door-to-door canvassing have large effects on turnout. Most of the existing studies have been conducted in the United States, and are inspiring European mobilization campaigns. This article explores the empirical question of whether the American f...
Article
Full-text available
Residential mobility has substantial negative effects on voter turnout. However, existing studies have been unable to disentangle whether this is due to social costs, informational costs or convenience costs that are related to re-registration. This article analyzes the relevance of the different costs by studying the effect of moving and reassignm...
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It is becoming increasingly popular among Danes to use early voting. The article describes the changes that have been made in the electoral law to accommodate the use of early voting and describes the historical development in the use of early voting. In addition, we show that there is considerable variation in the use of early voting at the munici...
Article
Similar to all other types of information, public opinion polls can influence public opinion. We present two hypotheses to understand how polls affect public opinion: the bandwagon and the underdog effect. The bandwagon effect claims that voters “jump on the bandwagon,” which means that if a party is gaining in the polls, the party will gain additi...
Article
Democratic institutions often do not evaluate their instruments. By working closely with authorities, we developed a field experiment to examine an initiative to increase voter turnout among 18-year-olds that had not previously been evaluated. Particular attention was paid to developing an appropriate program theory and to designing the evaluation...
Article
Som al anden information kan meningsmålinger påvirke opinionen. Vi præsenterer to hypoteser til at forstå, hvordan meningsmålinger påvirker opinionen: bandwagon- og underdog-effekten. Bandwagon-effekten hævder, at vælgerne “springer med på vognen”, således at et parti i fremgang vil opleve yderligere tilslutning og omvendt, hvis partiet står til ti...
Article
Information like opinion polls can influence public opinion. We present two hypotheses to understand how polls affect voters: First, the bandwagon effect claims that voters “float along”: A party experiencing increased support receives more support and vice versa. Second, the underdog effect claims that a party experiencing declining support receiv...

Citations

... Ifølge en omfattende undersøgelse fra 2012 har 38 lande indført forbud mod offentliggørelse af meningsmålingsresultater forud for et valg (Chung, 2012: 9). Der har endvidere vaeret en betydelig dansk debat om, hvorvidt meningsmålinger burde forbydes (Ritzau, 2008;Dahlgaard et al., 2015;Bue Lauritzen 2017;Albrechtsen, 2013). politica, 50. ...
... A substantial literature on couple concordance exists for health behaviors such as alcohol intake [5,6], sleep duration [7], and physical activity [7][8][9]. The mobilizing effects of being part of a couple extend to voting: couples are more likely to vote than singles [10]. Couples' similarities have been attributed to assortative mating, the contributions of shared environments, and partners directly influencing each other's behavior [11]. ...
... Quelques constats sur la participation électorale et l'engagement civique des jeunes Plus de deux jeunes sur trois (69 %) nés au Québec en 1997-1998 ont déclaré avoir voté aux élections provinciales de 2018 (données non illustrées). Comme il a été constaté dans plusieurs enquêtes sur la participation électorale, il est possible que ce résultat surévalue la participation réelle de la population ciblée (Ansolabehere et Hersh, 2012 ;Dahlgaard et autres, 2019). Cette proportion s'observe tant chez les jeunes hommes que chez les jeunes femmes (données non illustrées). ...
... In addition to the variables discussed above, we expect that citizens with higher levels of education are less likely to be abstainers; a pattern which has previously been documented in Denmark and single-election studies in many other countries (cf. Bhatti et al., 2016a;Bhatti and Hansen, 2012;Persson, 2015;Smets and Van Ham, 2013). ...
... Likewise, it is stronger among older than younger voters. Turnout is generally substantially higher for native Danes and older voters (Bhatti et al. 2019). In other words, in both cases, the difference is most pronounced in the group that already had the highest turnout rate. ...
... This literature has shown that many voters are sensitive to social pressure exertedeven if only tacitly or implicitlyby peers, family, and neighbors. For example, mailings promising to publicize to a voter's neighbors whether (s)he casts a ballot in an upcoming election are remarkably effective in stimulating turnout (Gerber et al. 2008), and several studies suggest that increasing a voter's likelihood of voting also increases the odds that his/her close friends and family will cast ballots (Bhatti et al. 2017;Bond et al. 2012;Nickerson 2008). More tellingly, canvassers seem to be more effective when they interact with voters who reside in the same zip code (Sinclair et al. 2013). ...
... Panaceas are often linked to ideologies which purport to have uncovered the key to economic development: right wing ideologies see the market as the panacea [21]; left-wing ideologies see equality as the panacea [22]. Other candidate social, scientific, economic and political panaceas include poverty relief [23]; universal access to education [24][25][26]; social enterprises [27][28][29] inter-group contact [30]; scientific expertise [31]; entrepreneurship [32]; collaborative innovation [33]; privatisation [34]; public-private partnerships [35]; corporate social responsibility [36]; integrated coastal zone management [37]; performance management [38]; leadership [39,40] stakeholder participation [41][42][43]); co-management [44]; voting [45]; trust in government [46]; and strong law enforcement [39]. ...
... Therefore, external voting choices should closely follow the way national citizens in the home-country support political parties. Hence, the party support expressed by the home population in opinion polls during the months preceding the election is expected to turn into a significant predictor of its support among the external community, at least as significant as it does with the national one (Dahlgaard, Hansen, Hansen, & Larsen, 2017). Furthermore, from that and compared to previous research, the incumbency of a party is expected to affect only indirectly its vote share abroad. ...
... Finally, SMS text messages have an ITT effect of 0.96% points among attentive voters. These effects are substantially stronger than the effects found in the United States, and stronger than the effects found in the one previous European test of text messages in Denmark (Bhatti et al. 2017). ...
... For another example of divergence between U.S. and European results,Bhatti et al. (2016) paper finds canvassing, usually considered the most effective tool in U.S. GOTV studies, is largely ineffective in Europe.Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved. ...