John M. Gandar’s research while affiliated with University of North Carolina at Charlotte and other places

... 2. Naturally, there can be psychological momentum within Set 1 at the game-or point-level. 3. Depken et al. (2021) develop an extension of this approach to the case of the best-of-five professional tennis matches. Depken et al. (2021) adjusts the theoretical model of this paper to the best-of-five contest and uses the direct approach to test for the presence of psychological momentum. ...

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Set-level Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Best-of-three-set Professional Tennis Matches

... First, research in the shorter version of win-by-two sets tournaments in international tennis matches (both men and women between 2002 to 2020) showed that only 22,605 (34.2%) out of 66,262 games went to a third gamedeciding set thus highlighting the one-sided nature of this sport. 21 Similarly studying comeback in this sport, another study found a 18% reversal (losing the first set and then winning the next two) with no gender differences (the reversal rate among women was 14%). 22 Lastly in professional tennis, it was shown that top ranked internationally men and women players were able to mount a comeback from a one-set deficit in, 31% and 35%, respectively, while top 500 counterparts, were successful to a much lesser extent (15% and 9%, respectively) . ...

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Win three-sets sports: Game patterns, gender comparisons, and comeback analysis

... Studies indicate that win a close first set, for instance, could psychologically impact both players, often give the winner an edge in the following set. While previous research has acknowledged the importance of momentum, few models incorporate it effectively due to its complex, non-linear nature [6]. Traditional linear approaches fall short in represents such dynamics, where the associations are always monotonic rather than strictly linear. ...

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Spearman Correlation and Entropy Weight Method Based Best-of-n Competition Momentum Prediction

... Given this history, the MLB's first response to legalized sports betting was to try and implement a 1% integrity fee (Retter, 2020). An integrity fee would be taken directly from the state's ad valorem tax on total dollars bet or the handle (Depken & Gandar, 2021). This integrity fee would then be used to monitor those involved in the league's games to ensure honesty and could generate a $2 billion windfall for the leagues (Holden & Schuster, 2019). ...

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Betting on Athlete Data: The Legal Landscape of Professional Sports, Athletes’ Rights and Gaming Companies

... However, the Wimbledon is five out of three. Therefore, innovations need to be taken to make the model satisfy the actual match situation better [27]. The introduction of the concept "variation of difference in momentum" (∆ṁ) provides a novel perspective on analyzing player performance dynamics. ...

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Analyzing Momentum Shifts in Tennis: A Machine-Learning Approach to Predicting Match Outcomes

... Gregory (2018) systematically develops both a theoretical model and empirical support for the game management hypothesis. Berkowitz, Depken, and Gandar (2018b) isolate teams having large halftime leads and utilizing second half betting lines arrive at a similar conclusion. ...

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Point Shaving? A Novel Experiment and New Insights

... However, this conclusion is disputed by Diemer (2012) who argues that if corruption were prevalent then we would expect to see a larger percentage of bets placed on favorites (with each bet having a lower dollar value) and a smaller percentage on underdogs (with each bet having a higher dollar value), yet this is not what Paul and Weinbach (2011) report. Berkowitz, Depken, and Gandar (2018a) express that while the tendency of heavy favorites to win but not cover is indisputable, it may not be significant enough to produce a profitable betting rule. They set out to determine whether a gambler could exploit this trend via in-game parlays (taking the underdog in the point spread market and the favorite in the money line market) and find that strategy returns are not significantly greater than zero. ...

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Point Shaving? A Novel Experiment and New Insights

... Among the multiple strategies adopted to predict winning percentages (e.g. Leung and Joseph, 2014;Rascher, 1999;Scully, 1974;Wiseman and Chatterjee, 2003), we employed money lines from the betting market to forecast teams' likelihood of winning, as done in previous research (Berkowitz et al., 2018;Coates and Humphreys, 2012;Coates et al., 2014), because money lines are a reliable predictor of outcomes, with sportsbook makers gathering team-related information using computer algorithms (Appelbaum, 2021). ...

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Do uncertain outcomes matter for ticket prices? Examination of the National Football League’s secondary ticket market

... To obtain odd-implied winning probabilities for home and away teams, I transform the home and away odds and from the betting exchange and the bookmaker market separately using basic normalization (Strumbelj 2014, Berkowitz et al. 2015: ...

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Do Market Participants Misperceive Lottery-Type Assets? Evidence from the European Soccer Betting Market

... In the moral risk literature, emphasis tends to be on the phenomenon of moral hazard, or on how people who feel protected against negative costs of their actions, tend to take higher risk than they otherwise would have done, due to the perception that they will not have to bear the burden if things go wrong. Moral hazard occurs when an insurance customer takes a higher risk with his or her properties, based on the knowledge that if things go wrong, the insurance company will pay the cost (Aron-Dine, Einav, Finkelstein, & Cullen, 2015;Parsons, 2003;Sealey, Gandar, & Mazumdar, 2016). In the classical sense, moral hazard in insurance refers to "(t)he possibility that the policyholder, knowing that he is insured, will change his behavior in a way that produces undesirable outcomes: in particular, he may become more careless" (Parsons, 2003, p. 448). ...

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Moral Risk in a Nursing Home