John Curtice’s research while affiliated with University of Strathclyde and other places

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Publications (311)


General Election 2024: How Britain Voted
  • Article

September 2024

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28 Reads

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2 Citations

Political Insight

John Curtice



Figure 1
Compliance in crisis: Concern, trust, and distrustful complacency in the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Article
  • Full-text available

April 2023

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150 Reads

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2 Citations

Social and Personality Psychology Compass

Two studies tested a distrustful complacency hypothesis, according to which either concern or political trust would be enough to sustain law-abiding attitudes and compliance with health-protective policies during the COVID-19 pandemic; but that the absence of both concern and trust would result in markedly lower support and compliance. Study 1 supported this hypothesis with NatCen nationally representative sample of Great Britain (N = 2,413; weighted regression analyses), focusing on law-abiding attitudes. Study 2 (preregistered) replicated these findings with a representative sample (N = 1,523) investigating support for COVID-19 policies and compliant behaviour. Participants who were less concerned about the consequences of the pandemic (for themselves and for others) and simultaneously less trustful of the government expressed weaker law-abiding attitudes and reported less compliance with COVID-19 restrictions. These findings have implications for policy and public health strategies in time of crisis.

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A Brexit Election?

January 2022

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26 Reads

Leading expert Sir John Curtice uses opinion poll evidence to investigate the question which is perhaps the key puzzle in interpreting the 2019 outcome—to what extent was this ‘a Brexit election’? The chapter reviews the polling trends on this critical issue, analyses how Leave and Remain supporters voted in the 2019 General Election and how this differed from 2015 and 2017. The discussion focuses on how the Conservatives, in particular, were able during the campaign to forge and successfully maintain a winning electoral coalition.




Citations (39)


... Each year approximately one in six adults in England experience a common mental disorder (CMD) such as depression or anxiety [1]. However, despite the frequency of mental illness, levels of stigma and discrimination remain high [2]. This can adversely affect outcomes. ...

Reference:

Small area deprivation and stigmatising attitudes towards mental illness: a multilevel analysis of Health Survey for England (2014) data
British Social Attitudes
  • Citing Chapter
  • August 2021

... In this article, based on a set of elite interviews in four Combined Authorities, we address the research question of whether devolution within England has created new sources of policy ideas and agency in the Combined Authorities, commensurate with a substantial transfer of power and responsibility from the central state, or instead whether the policy research and development capacities in sub-national English government are limited and largely technocratic in nature, reflecting functional devolution of discrete policy responsibilities and a transactional relationship to central government. Utilising insights from historical institutionalism (Mahoney and Thelen, 2010) and the literature on English governance (Ayers et al., 2018;Kenny et al., 2018), we expect to see only incremental development of policy capacities in Combined Authorities and marked inequalities between those authorities with established histories of policy planning and delivery, such as over urban transport, and those without. We also expect to see inequalities in policy capacities and agency between those authorities with strong city-regional political and cultural identities and those in areas with more diffuse and disparate forms of local or regional identity. ...

Governing England: English Identity and Institutions in a Changing United Kingdom
  • Citing Article
  • November 2018

... While international research on public perceptions of military service personnel and veterans has received extensive academic attention (e.g., Ashcroft, 2012Ashcroft, , 2017Hines et al., 2015;ICM Unlimited, 2015;Institut Public de Sondage et al., 2015;Park et al., 2012;Phillips et al., 2020), little is known about Austrian public attitudes towards their service personnel and veterans. When this type of work has been done, it focused predominantly on explicit attitudinal data measures on public perceptions of the Austrian military (Prinz et al., 2019). ...

British Social Attitudes 28
  • Citing Book
  • January 2012

... If we want to explain the success of a secessionist movements, we will appeal to factors that make a marginal contribution to the popular support for secessionism (and to the willingness of elites in the central government to resist secessionism).6 In reality, the difference in political values between Scotland and England is (or at least was recently) quite modest(Curtice and Ormston 2011). It has been a long-term political tactic of the secessionist Scottish National Party to emphasise purported ideological differences between Scotland and England for the purposes of mobilising left-wing voters behind independence (Sobolewska and Ford 2020, 260-1). ...

Devolution: On the Road to Divergence? Trends in Public Opinion in Scotland and England
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2012

... A separation from England would allow a Scotland government to again make decisions in accordance with the will and values of the Scottish people (Bromley & Curtice, 2003). Edinburgh, not London, would control taxation, vast energy resources, and the government bureaucracy. ...

1. Devolution: Scorecard and Prospects
  • Citing Chapter
  • June 2019

... According to recent studies, elites include people who stand out and have unique skills and rights that give them superiority over others in their social group. As a result, such people become leaders in their social groups and exercise power, and they can also receive authority for this (Jones, 2021). That is, the elite includes those who have extremely disproportionate control over or access to a resource. ...

Politics UK
  • Citing Book
  • June 2021

... The future of British politics will depend on the effects that the departure from the Single Market and Customs Union will have on the economy and on the State of the Union. According to a 2020 pool, 54% of Scottish voters are in favour of independence, while this figure rises to no less than 60% if we consider those who voted to remain in the EU (Curtice, 2021). In May 2021 a parliamentary election will take place in Scotland, and the Scottish National Party will seek support for holding a second referendum on independence. ...

Labour's post‐Brexit electoral strategy

IPPR Progressive Review

... For an explanation as mainstream as the theory of economic grievance, this must be roundly emphasised. Demographic data demonstrates that there is in fact a complex coalition who voted in favour of Brexit (Curtice 2016(Curtice , 2017. It is far from clear whether poverty, or even economic variables in general, can be said to really define who these 'left-behinds' are. ...

Brexit: Behind the Referendum
  • Citing Article
  • September 2016

Political Insight

... Additionally, and like other studies involving students [2,31,34], the ambiguous belief of an anthropogenic origin of CC is frequent in Algeria (41.5%), although more than half opted for both a natural and a human origin. These convictions are not surprising, due to the universal acceptance by the population that human activities are the primary cause of CC [42], who mainly cite deforestation, pollution, and excessive use of natural resources, among other activities. Furthermore, almost all participants believed that CC is happening in the world (93.3%) and that Algeria is also affected (91.3%). ...

Ready to deal with another crisis?

IPPR Progressive Review

... Estos temas, que fueron ampliamente investigados en décadas anteriores (por ejemplo, Stevenson, 2001;Erickson et al., 2002), volvieron a suscitar gran interés entre los científicos sociales a partir de la depresión de 2008. La literatura académica se centró en estudiar qué efectos tuvo esta crisis en las actitudes hacia el estado de bienestar (Diamond y Lodge, 2013;Margalit, 2013;Ervasti et al., 2013;Anderson y Hecht, 2014;Laenen y Van Oorschot, 2020;Curtice, 2020), hacia las políticas sociales y redistributivas (Soroka y Wlezien, 2010;Brunner et al., 2011;Fisman et al., 2015;Calzada y Del Pino, 2016;Rehm, 2016;Rueda y Stegmueller, 2019), y hacia los programas de austeridad (Calzada y Del Pino, 2018;Alesina et al., 2019;Häusermann et al., 2020;Busemeyer, 2021;Hübscher et al., 2021). La debacle económica de la pandemia vuelve a situar en primer plano estas cuestiones (Breznau, 2021;Miyar-Busto y Mato-Díaz, 2021;Asano et al., 2021), con el estímulo de que, ahora, es factible examinar la reacción de la opinión pública ante dos vías diferentes de acción política pues, mientras Cicuéndez Santamaría, Ruth El apoyo social a las políticas públicas en épocas de crisis: preferencias de gasto público durante la pandemia y la Gran Recesión en la Gran Recesión se implantaron estrictas medidas de consolidación fiscal, durante la COVID-19 se ha optado por un incremento inédito del presupuesto (Ferragina y Zola, 2021;Orton y Sarkar, 2022). ...

Will Covid-19 change attitudes towards the welfare state?

IPPR Progressive Review