John C. Speir’s scientific contributions

This study describes the likelihood and extent to which juvenile offenders persist in illegal behavior and penetrate into Georgia’s adult criminal justice system. Electronic records linked from multiple agencies produced the first statewide longitudinal dataset of half a million justice-involved individuals spanning five decades (1970-2015). We merely scratch the surface of how linked administrative databases can be used to better understand juvenile and criminal careers and help us to craft policy to interrupt career trajectories. We are hopeful that policy makers will continue to support the exploration of such data. Desistance in Georgia Georgia’s juvenile justice system referrals and served populations have declined, similar to national trends. The political focus on juvenile justice policy reform has resulted in closing both detention and secure facilities while increasing program availability. 12% of all juveniles had only one referral and then exited the justice system completely. Yet the concern over recidivism remains. 41% of the half-million juveniles examined went on to be arrested as adults (referred to as “adult persistence”). The best predictor of adult offending is gender. Redefining the Link Between Age & Crime Theorists and researchers agree that youth increases the likelihood of criminality. Examining the full juvenile-to-adult “criminal career,” and understanding the life events of young offenders as they age, is required to both fully understand the age-crime relationship and to craft effective intervention strategies. Many hold an acceptance that the earlier a youth becomes involved in the justice system, the more likely they are to become adult offenders. We find age at first juvenile referral had no such impact. The youngest offenders were no more likely to become adult offenders than those entering the justice system at later ages. Irrespective of age at first referral, juveniles that commit felonies, have many referrals, and who are active in the juvenile justice system for long periods of time are the most likely to become adult offenders. In fact, offenders who entered the justice system as adults (not juveniles) had the longest criminal careers. System Interventions Matter Juvenile justice system interventions can affect a criminal career. The more deeply juveniles penetrate the system, the more likely they are to become adult offenders. This relationship holds true after statistically controlling for the influence of offense. Tailoring responses that are the most appropriate for a child’s needs with the least level of system penetration clearly has the potential to reduce adult offending.

This article describes the efforts undertaken during the past five years for the Georgia Board of Pardons and Paroles to develop a method for assessing parolee risk to inform the supervision level assignments of Georgia's 23,000 active parolees. The project resulted in an actuarial risk assessment method based on the analysis of over 6,000 parolees. Historically, officers conducted pencil-and-paper assessments on all new parolees entering supervision and reassessments every six months thereafter. The new instruments are automated—offender risk is derived through the execution of computerized programs that access both prison and parole data systems. Parolee risk scores are updated daily, incorporating the dynamics of daily correctional supervision progress or failure, and are provided to parole officers through web-based reports and e-mail.

During 1998, Georgia received over $10 million in Violence Against Women Act and Victims of Crime Act funding, used in part to serve 14,000 victims of sexual assault through rape crisis centers and victim witness assistance programs. De-spite millions of dollars and years of program administration, it is unknown whether the needs of victims are adequately addressed. In response, the Georgia Statistical Analysis Center dedicated its 1997 and 1998 State Justice Program grant funds to studying sexual assault. This article summarizes the first in a series of studies—reporting on 300 surveys of victim service program directors, front-line staff, and victims. The study represents the first attempt in Georgia to under-stand the availability, quality, and delivery of services to victims of sexual assault statewide. The study provided policymakers with critical information on how increased availability of counseling services, improved public awareness cam-paigns, and professional education and training can ultimately improve services to victims of sexual assault.

* Abstract This study intersected Georgia and North Carolina criminal codes and 1996 Geor- gia felony offender cohort data, including the prior criminal history of each of- fender, to recreate sentences for the Georgia cohort using the North Carolina guidelines. The analysis revealed that if the North Carolina guidelines had been imposed on the 1996 population, over 3,700 Georgia felony offenders would have received a prison sentence instead of probation, and that over 2,200 offenders who were admitted into Georgia's prison system as a result of a felony conviction would have received probated sentences under the North Carolina guidelines. This "net" increase in prison sentences appears to demonstrate how structured sentencing can increase the severity of punishment. A comparison of average prison sentence lengths shows, however, that Georgia's sanctions are harsher on many property and drug crime offenders. The article suggests that sound criminal justice public policy in Georgia should be based on the results of objective research, and that more relevant issues should be contemplated by Georgia lawmakers before any systemwide changes in sentencing laws are proposed.