Jesus Rios's research while affiliated with IBM Research and other places

Publications (28)

Chapter
We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approac...
Preprint
Full-text available
Insider threats entail major security issues in geopolitics, cyber risk management and business organization. The game theoretic models proposed so far do not take into account some important factors such as the organisational culture and whether the attacker was detected or not. They also fail to model the defensive mechanisms already put in place...
Chapter
We focus on concept uncertainty which adds a new layer to the traditional risk analysis distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, when adversaries are present. The idea is illustrated with a problem in adversarial point estimation framed as a specific case of adversarial statistical decision theory.
Article
Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to redu...
Article
Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solutio...
Book
Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against...
Article
Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration...
Article
We show how adversarial risk analysis may cope with a current important security issue in relation with piracy off the Somali coasts. Specifically, we describe how to support the owner of a ship in managing risks from piracy in that area. We illustrate how a sequential defend--attack--defend model can be used to formulate this decision problem and...
Article
Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoreti...
Article
Deciding how much – if any – of its power generation portfolio, the UK should commit to nuclear generation is not an easy problem and providing analyses to support that decision is no less difficult. In this paper we explore how combining decision analytic and scenario planning perspectives might help in the process. In doing so we explore firstly...
Article
This paper explores whether the decisions made by a negotiator during negotiations are consistent with her preferences. By considering the entire set of offers exchanged during a negotiation, the measures of consistency developed in this paper provide a compact representation of important behavioral characteristics throughout the negotiation proces...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter provides an overview of the main participatory budget practices in Europe, together with a description of the pioneer one of Porto Alegre, as many of them are based on it. We also present an architecture for e-participatory budget formation support. Finally, an experiment is carried out to illustrate the architecture.
Article
Full-text available
We reconsIDer bargaining models developed to determine fair and reasonable solution outcomes for bargaining problems. Based on these models we develop novel negotiation support methods that will be able to produce on demand recommendations during a negotiation process. We first briefly discuss Raiffa's solution of balanced increments and, based on...
Conference Paper
Decision support and the impartation of the principal's preferences to the agent may influence the negotiation outcome. A multi-attribute two-party contract e-negotiation was conducted in a controlled laboratory environment. The results indicate that the effectiveness of analytical support depends on the elicitation of the numerical preference valu...
Conference Paper
Interest in counterterrorism modelling has increased recently. A common theme in the approaches adopted is the need to develop methods to analyse decisions when there are intelligent opponents ready to increase our risks. Most of the approaches have a clear game theoretic flavour, although there have been some decision analytic based approaches. We...
Article
We deal with issues concerning negotiation support for group decisions over influence diagrams, when the group members disagree about utility and probability assessments. We base our discussion on a modification of the balanced increment solution, which guarantees a final negotiated Pareto optimal alternative. As in standard decision analysis textb...
Article
Applications in counterterrorism and corporate competition have led to the development of new methods for the analysis of decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. This field represents a combination of statistical risk analysis and game theory, and is sometimes called adversarial risk analysis. In this article, w...
Article
In many parts of the world there is growing demand for participation in public policy decision making. This demand could be satisfied by the design and deployment of Web-based group decision support systems to aid large groups of, possibly unsophisticated, users in participating in such decisions. After describing several mechanisms for participato...
Article
Participatory budgets are becoming increasingly popular in many municipalities all around the world. The underlying idea is to allow citizens to participate in the allocation of a municipal budget. Little decision support methodology is used in this type of activities, frequently based on physical meetings and some kind of voting mechanism. We desc...
Chapter
In many parts of the world there is growing demand for participation in public policy decision making. This demand could be satisfied by the design and deployment of Webbased group decision support systems to aid large groups of, possibly unsophisticated, users in participating in such decisions. After describing several mechanisms for participator...
Article
E-democracy refers to a set of methods to address social issues through the web, possibly by using decision support methodologies to involve citizens in decision-making processes. Participatory budgets, in which citizens participate in budget allocation, are an example. Web applications supporting these processes entail complex interactions in whic...
Article
Research on bilateral negotiations @InProceedings{rios_et_al:DSP:2007:1006, author = {Jesus Rios and Stefan Strecker and JinBeak Kim and Simone Ludwig and Eva Chen}, title = {Experimental research on bilateral negotiations}, booktitle = {Negotiation and Market Engineering}, year = {2007}, editor = {Nick Jennings and Gregory Kersten and Axel Ockenfe...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
We describe a web-based system to support groups in elaborating participatory budgets. Rather than using physical meetings with voting mechanisms, we promote virtual meetings with explicit preference elicitation, guided negotiations and, only if consensus is not reached, voting.
Conference Paper
We describe a web-based architecture to support participation in group decision making. Emphasis is placed on security aspects related with our architecture, designed to enhance trust on the system.
Article
Full-text available
Applications in counterterrorism and corporate competition have led to the de-velopment of new methods for the analysis of decision-making when there are intel-ligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. This field is sometimes called adversarial risk analysis. In this paper, we illustrate a general framework developed for sup-porting a decision maker...
Article
RESUMEN En este artículo se revisan algunos conceptos básicos sobre democracia electrónica y gobierno electrónico, desde una perspectiva tecnológica, y se propone una arquitectura para facilitar la toma de decisiones por grupos.

Citations

... Adversarial Risk Analysis, a novel subfield of decision analysis that also draws on statistical risk analysis and game theory, enables a decision maker to best allocate his resources to defend against several adversarial decision makers, taking their strategies as well as uncertainties into account (Banks et al., 2015). ...
... Cooke (1991). However, as noted in Ríos Insua et al. (2020), improved forecasts are frequently obtained using the structural decomposition in ARA to assess a probability distribution over the attacker's possible actions reflecting the defender's uncertainty about them. For this, ARA suggests a decomposition approach that requires the defender to consider the attacker's problem from her perspective to obtain the attack distribution p D (y 1 , y 2 | m) and, thus, the probability q(n | θ, λ) needed in Proposition 2, as we next consider. ...
... Dynamic BN models of system cybersecurity with an explicit temporal dimension can be further extended. One direction is to represent the defender's beliefs about the attacker's actions and intentions to allow for an adversarial risk analysis (Banks et al., 2015;Insua et al., 2021). Another important direction is the modeling of cyber resilience (Gisladottir et al., 2016), understood as the system's ability to deliver its intended outcome despite adverse cybersecurity incidents. ...
... A main motivation for ARA comes from security and counter-terrorism analysis. Since its introduction, it has been used to model a variety of problems such as network routing for insurgency (Wang and Banks, 2011), international piracy (Sevillano et al., 2012), urban security resource allocation (Gil et al., 2016), adversarial classification (Naveiro et al., 2019), counter-terrorist online surveillance (Gil and Parra-Arnau, 2019), cyber-security (Rios Insua et al., 2019), insider threat modelling (Joshi et al., 2020) and combat modeling enhancement (Roponen and Salo, 2015), to name but a few. ...
... For this, we need to forecast the attacker's intentions. Many different attacker rationalities may be considered in the ARA framework, see Rios Insua et al. (2016). However, we circumscribe here the defender to be a level-2 thinker, in the Stahl and Wilson (1995) sense: she will ponder how the attacker's strategy would adapt to her own strategy but presume that he will not conduct likewise. ...
... Given this, we need to replace predictions and forecasts with something else. Modern futures approaches consider multiple possible future scenarios, against which different policy options are considered to allow a judgement as to how well they perform across the spectrum of possibilities (French, Rios, & Stewart, 2011). ...
... A main motivation for ARA comes from security and counter-terrorism analysis. Since its introduction, it has been used to model a variety of problems such as network routing for insurgency (Wang and Banks, 2011), international piracy (Sevillano et al., 2012), urban security resource allocation (Gil et al., 2016), adversarial classification (Naveiro et al., 2019), counter-terrorist online surveillance (Gil and Parra-Arnau, 2019), cyber-security (Rios Insua et al., 2019), insider threat modelling (Joshi et al., 2020) and combat modeling enhancement (Roponen and Salo, 2015), to name but a few. ...
... According to (Stewart, French &Rios, 2013), decision-making should start with the identification of the decision maker(s) and stakeholder(s) in decision, reducing the possible disagreement about problem definition, requirements, goals and criteria. ...
... The participatory budgeting is also a useful tool for the needs of participatory and deliberative democracy that can best train and empower stakeholders. In the future the participatory budgeting will have to adapt to the new technologies put in place through the web and new applications, adapting it over time to the tools and instances of the population in a continuous process of redefinition ( Caceres et al., 2007;Efremov & Rios Insua, 2007). ...
... Aside from statistical and information-theoretic approaches as employed in this paper, the literature on adversarial examples and attempts to correctly classify and detect them is rather rich. For instance, ref. [14] offers a game-theory-based risk analysis approach that was originally introduced by [15], whereas [16] introduce efficient algorithms for reverse engineering linear classifiers for adversarial classification. Adversarial classification dates back to [17], which assumes (somewhat unrealistically) that the adversary has the perfect knowledge of the classifier and attempt to detect these attacks by computation of the adversary's optimal strategy. ...