Jessica E. Tierney's research while affiliated with The University of Arizona and other places
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Publications (156)
Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a tool for reconstructing past climates that directly integrates proxy records with climate model output. Despite the potential for DA to expand the scope of quantitative paleoclimatology, these methods remain difficult to implement in practice due to the multi-faceted requirements and data handling necessary...
The early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) represents the peak of Earth's last sustained greenhouse climate interval. To investigate hydroclimate variability in western North America during the EECO, we developed an orbitally resolved leaf wax δ2H record from one of the most well-dated terrestrial paleoclimate archives, the Green River Formation. Our...
Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), both archaeal isoprenoid GDGTs (isoGDGTs) and bacterial branched GDGTs (brGDGTs), have been used in paleoclimate studies to reconstruct environmental conditions. Since GDGTs are produced in many types of environments, their relative abundances also depend on the depositional setting. This suggests that...
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a leading constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), a measure of global-mean warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent research shows that feedbacks governing climate sensitivity depend on the spatial pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST), a phenomenon known as the “pattern ef...
Ancient lake deposits in the Mojave Desert indicate that the water cycle in this currently dry place was radically different under past climates. Here we revisit a 700 m core drilled 55 years ago from Searles Valley, California, that recovered evidence for a lacustrine phase during the late Pliocene. We update the paleomagnetic age model and extrac...
Paleoclimate reconstructions of the Early Eocene provide important data constraints on the climate and hydrologic cycle under extreme warm conditions. Available terrestrial water isotope records have been primarily interpreted to signal an enhanced hydrologic cycle in the Early Eocene associated with large-scale warming induced by high atmospheric...
Great Salt Lake (GSL), Utah, is a hypersaline terminal lake in the Great Basin, and the remnant of the late glacial Lake Bonneville. Holocene hydroclimate variations cannot be interpreted from the shoreline record, but instead can be investigated by proxies archived in the sediments. GLAD1‐GSL00‐1B was cored in 2000 and recently dated by radiocarbo...
Aeolian deposits in the middle Tanana Valley of central Alaska offer a well-preserved record of paleoenvironmental change since the deglacial period (c. 16,000-11,000 cal yr BP). These deposits also contain some of North America's oldest archaeological occupations (c. 14,000-13,000 cal yr BP), making this
region critically important for understandi...
Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact precipitation across the basin through coupled ocean‐atmosphere responses to changes in climate. To understand the hydroclimate response over the western Indian Ocean and equatorial east Africa to different forcing mechanisms, we present four new proxy reconstructions from core VM19‐193 (2.98°N, 51.47°E)...
Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a novel tool for reconstructing past climates that directly integrates proxy records with climate model output. Despite the potential for DA to expand the scope of quantitative paleoclimatology, these methods remain difficult to implement in practice due to the multi-faceted requirements and data handling nece...
Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), including both the archaeal isoprenoid GDGTs (isoGDGTs) and the bacterial branched GDGTs (brGDGTs), have been used in paleoclimate studies to reconstruct temperature in marine and terrestrial archives. However, GDGTs are present in many different types of environments, with relative abundances that str...
Paleoclimate records from lakes of the southwestern USA have been limited by a lack of independent paleothermometers, resulting in conflicting characterizations of millennial-scale variability in temperature and moisture. Here a novel method called Brillouin thermometry is applied to halite-bearing dry intervals of the late Pleistocene/Holocene (45...
Paleotemperature proxy data form the cornerstone of paleoclimate research and are integral to understanding the evolution of the Earth system across the Phanerozoic Eon. Here, we present PhanSST, a database containing over 150,000 data points from five proxy systems that can be used to estimate past sea surface temperature. The geochemical data hav...
Abstract Southwestern North America (SWNA), like many subtropical regions, is predicted to become drier in response to anthropogenic warming. However, during the Pliocene, when carbon dioxide was above pre‐industrial levels, multiple lines of evidence suggest that SWNA was much wetter. While existing explanations for a wet Pliocene invoke increases...
The climate of the southwestern North America has experienced profound changes between wet and dry phases over the past 200 Kyr. To better constrain the timing, magnitude, and paleoenvironmental impacts of these changes in hydroclimate, we conducted a multiproxy biomarker study from samples collected from a new 77 m sediment core (SLAPP‐SRLS17) dri...
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a "greenhouse" world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth's surface, limiting our view of the spa...
Recent decades have seen the rapid expansion of scholarship that identifies societal responses to past climatic fluctuations. This fast-changing scholarship, which was recently synthesized as the History of Climate and Society (HCS), is today undertaken primary by archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, and paleoclimatologists. This r...
Terrestrial climate records for Antarctica, beyond the age limit of ice cores, are restricted to the few unglaciated areas with exposed rock outcrops. Marine sediments on Antarctica's continental shelves contain records of past oceanic and terrestrial environments that can provide important insights into Antarctic climate evolution. The SHALDRIL II...
Ice cores and other paleotemperature proxies, together with general circulation models, have provided information on past surface temperatures and the atmosphere's composition in different climates. Little is known, however, about past temperatures at high altitudes, which play a crucial role in Earth's radiative energy budget. Paleoclimate records...
Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof‐of‐concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere‐only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the pres...
Ocean‐atmosphere dynamics in the north Pacific play an important role in the global climate system and influence hydroclimate in western North America. However, changes to this region's mean climate under increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are not well understood. Here we present new alkenone‐based records of sea surface temperatur...
The eastern Mediterranean is projected to experience increases in drought and extreme rainfall in response to rising greenhouse gas emissions. Paleoclimate records from this region are crucial to further constrain the response of the water cycle to a globally warmer climate. Of these, the Dead Sea lacustrine record, collected by the Dead Sea Deep D...
Plain Language Summary
The eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) contains a region of very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (>27.5°C) that is called the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool (EPWP). The interaction between these warm waters and the atmosphere is important for driving rainfall variability in Mexico and Central America. Our understanding of SST var...
Surface soil glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) distributions are influenced by mean annual air temperature as well as soil pH. However, the controls on GDGT distributions with depth in soil profiles are less well-known. We report a study of soil profiles in warm, carbonate-precipitating, alkali soils in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania....
The Holocene thermal maximum, a period of global warmth evident in early to mid-Holocene proxy reconstructions, is controversial. Most model simulations of the Holocene have not reproduced this warming, leading to a disagreement known as the Holocene Temperature Conundrum. Pollen records document the expansion of vegetation in the early and mid-Hol...
Southwestern North America, like many subtropical regions, is predicted to dry in response to anthropogenic warming. However, during the Pliocene, when carbon dioxide was above pre-industrial levels, southwestern North America was wetter. While existing explanations for a wet Pliocene invoke increases in winter rain, recent modeling studies hypothe...
The response of the terrestrial biosphere to warming remains one of the most poorly understood and quantified aspects of the climate system. One way to test the behavior of the Earth system in warm climate states is to examine the geological record. The abundance, distribution, and/or isotopic composition of source-specific organic molecules (bioma...
The Great Salt Lake (UT) is a hypersaline terminal lake in the US Great Basin, and the remnant of the late glacial-pluvial Lake Bonneville. During the Holocene, hydroclimate variations have been more subtle in the basin. These variations can be investigated by organic geochemical methods within the sediment core GLAD1-GSL00-1B, cored in 2000 and re...
Climate changes across the past 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations1,2 and proxy data3–8 have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate dat...
Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by c...
We explore the response of northeastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) to deglacial (∼16–7 ka) climate variability as recorded in U37K′‐based SST reconstructions spanning 65°N to 10°S. Included in the analysis is a new 23 kyr SST record from core NH8P from the northwest Mexican Margin. We isolate spatiotemporal patterns in regional SSTs with...
Plain Language Summary
Reconstructions of past changes in rainfall, derived from cave deposits and ancient leaf waxes, provide an opportunity to understand how the tropical Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool, located between Southeast Asia and Australia, responds to large‐scale changes in global climate. Here, we statistically analyze five long records of rain...
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Int...
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Int...
We use theNorthern Hemisphere Tree-RingNetwork Development (NTREND) tree-ring database to examine the effects of using a small, highly-sensitive proxy network for paleotemperature data assimilation over the last millennium. We first evaluate our methods using pseudo-proxy experiments. These indicate that spatial assimilations using this network are...
Despite widespread use of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) for paleo-temperature reconstruction, no global calibration for their application in lakes has been generated since improved analytical methods have allowed for the separation of the structural isomers. This is a substantial obstacle for the application of this tool...
The Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) marks the onset of Antarctic glaciation at 33.7 Ma. Although the benthic oxygen isotope record defines the major continental ice sheet expansion, recent sedimentary and geochemical evidence suggests the presence of earlier ephemeral ice sheets. Sediment cores from Ocean Drilling Program Legs 119 and 188 in Pryd...
Climate changes across the last 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations and proxy data have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assi...
This study aims to evaluate whether machine learning techniques can be successfully applied to process the complex information contained within the molecular abundance distributions of plant wax n-alkane and n-alkanoic acid homologous series. We trained five vegetation identification models using plant wax chain length distributions from modern pla...
Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in lake sediments are increasingly being used to reconstruct past temperatures. However, recent studies suggest that brGDGT distributions and concentrations vary with lake size and environmental conditions such as seasonality and its effects on water column temperature and chemistry. To test...
Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in lake sediments are increasingly being used to reconstruct past temperatures. However, recent studies suggest that brGDGT distributions and concentrations vary with lake size and environmental conditions, such as seasonality and its effects on water column temperature and chemistry. To test...
We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all...
To celebrate the first anniversary of Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, we asked six researchers investigating weather and climate to outline notable developments within their discipline and provide thoughts on important work yet to be done.
Broadly, what are some of the key advances and exciting future prospects in your discipline within weathe...
The upper end of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has increased substantially in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects phase 6 with eight models (as of this writing) reporting an ECS > 5°C. The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is one such high-ECS model. Here we perform paleoclimate simulations of the Last Glacial...
The vertical distribution of subseafloor archaeal communities is thought to be primarily controlled by in situ conditions in sediments such as the availability of electron acceptors and donors, although sharp community shifts have also been observed at lithological boundaries suggesting that at least a subset of vertically stratified Archaea form a...
The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is home to the warmest sea surface temperatures in the world oceans, favoring strong tropospheric convection and heavy rainfall. The mechanisms controlling long-term change in the region's hydroclimate are still uncertain. Here, we present a 450,000-year record of precipitation δD from southern Sumatra that records...
The future in the past
A major cause of uncertainties in climate projections is our imprecise knowledge of how much warming should occur as a result of a given increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Paleoclimate records have the potential to help us sharpen that understanding because they record such a wide variety of environme...
Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to
contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the
sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history.
Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene
(∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range
(∼9 to 23 ∘C higher...
The TEX86 paleothermometer is based upon the distribution of archaeal membrane lipids (“GDGTs”) in marine sediments. GDGTs are ubiquitous, abundant and relatively resistant to degradation; as such, the TEX86 paleothermometer has been used to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) during the Cenozoic and early Mesozoic. In this chapter, we review...
The Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project drilled 456 meters into the deepest floor of the Dead Sea and recovered a record of the past ∼220 kyr of the Levant hydroclimate history, that is, Marine Isotope Stages 1–7, including the last three interglacials and the last two glacials. We present an updated chronology of the core from DSDDP Hole 5017-1-A, from...
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), one of the best studied palaeoclimatic intervals, offers an excellent opportunity to investigate how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gases and the cryosphere. Previous work has sought to constrain the magnitude and pattern of glacial cooling from palaeothermometers1,2, but the uneven distribution...
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ∼55.9 Ma) was a hyperthermal event associated with large carbon cycle perturbations, sustained global warming, and marine and terrestrial environmental changes. One possible trigger and/or source of the carbon release that initiated the PETM is the emplacement of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP)...
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Floods and droughts in the Mississippi River basin are perennial hazards that cause severe economic disruption. Here we develop and analyze a new lipid biomarker record from Horseshoe Lake (Illinois, USA) to evaluate the climatic conditions associated with hydroclimatic extremes that occurred in this region over the last 1,800 years. We present geo...
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
In the late Miocene, grasslands spread across the forested floodplains of the Himalayan foreland, but the causes of the ecological transition are still debated. Recent seafloor drilling by the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) provides an opportunity to study the transition across a larger region as archived in the Indus submarine fan. W...
Presently, the Indian Ocean (IO) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations. This may change under greenhouse warming, but the mechanisms remain uncertain, thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes. Using climate model simulations, we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate varia...
Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) have proven useful for paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, the mechanism by which these biomarkers respond to the environment and the identity of the source organisms remain poorly understood. These gaps in knowledge have prevented the study of brGDGTs in culture, thereby limiting the...
A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series co...
Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21,000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models have been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Palaeoclimate M...
Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO<sub>2</sub> forcing during the geological record. GMST estimates from the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (~ 57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range...