Jerry Walters’s research while affiliated with University of Utah and other places

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Publications (9)


Traffic generated by mixed-use developments—A follow-up 31-region study
  • Article

January 2020

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112 Reads

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20 Citations

Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment

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Jerry Walters

This study aims to improve a previously-developed methodology for predicting the traffic impacts of mixed-use developments (MXDs). In 31 diverse metropolitan regions across the United States, we collected consistent regional household travel survey data and computed built environment characteristics—D variables—of MXDs. Multilevel modeling (MLM) was employed to predict the probability of trips captured internally within MXDs, walking on internal trips, and travel mode choice on external trips, by trip purpose. Larger, denser, mixed-use, and more walkable MXDs show a larger share of trips internally, compared with conventional suburban developments. Those MXDs with good access to transit, employment, and destinations also show higher levels of walking, biking, and transit shares on external trips, thus helping to reduce traffic impacts on the external road network. Perhaps the most impressive finding is that well-designed MXDs have walk shares of more than 50 percent on internal trips. A k-fold cross-validation supports the robustness of our analyses.


Traffic Generated by Mixed-Use Developments

January 2015

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114 Reads

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27 Citations

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Current methods of traffic impact analysis, which rely on rates and adjustments from ITE, are believed to understate the traffic benefits of mixed-use developments (MXDs) and therefore to lead to higher exactions and development fees than necessary and to discourage otherwise desirable developments. The purpose of this study was to improve methodology for predicting the traffic impacts of MXDs. Standard protocols were used to identify and generate data sets for MXDs in 13 large and diverse metropolitan regions. Data from household travel surveys and geographic information system databases were pooled for these MXDs, and travel and built-environment variables were consistently defined across regions. Hierarchical modeling was used to estimate models for internal capture of trips within MXDs and for walking, biking, and transit use on external trips. MXDs with diverse activities on site were shown to capture a large share of trips internally, so that the traffic impacts of the MXDs were reduced relative to ...




Figure 1. Traffic Impact Adjustments 
Table 1 . Sample Statistics
Figure 2. Data and Model Structure 
Table 2 . Internal Capture Rates for MXDs in the Six Study Regions
Table 6 . Log Odds of Internal Capture
Traffic Generated by Mixed-Use Developments – A Six- Region Study Using Consistent Built Environmental Measures
  • Article
  • Full-text available

September 2011

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1,858 Reads

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129 Citations

Journal of Urban Planning and Development

Current methods of traffic impact analysis, which rely on rates and adjustments from the Institute of Transportation Engineers, are believed to understate the traffic benefits of mixed-use developments (MXDs), leading to higher impact fees, exactions, and negotiated payments than should be the case and discouraging development of otherwise desirable projects. The purpose of this study was to develop new methodology for more accurately predicting the traffic impacts of MXDs. Standard protocols were used to identify and generate datasets for MXDs in six large and diverse metropolitan regions. Data from household travel surveys and GIS databases were pooled for these MXDs, and travel and built environmental variables were consistently defined across regions. Hierarchical modeling was used to estimate models for internal capture of trips within MXDs, walking and transit use on external trips, and trip length for external automobile trips. MXDs with diverse activities on-site are shown to capture a large share of trips internally, reducing their traffic impacts relative to conventional suburban developments. Smaller MXDs in walkable areas with good transit access generate significant shares of walk and transit trips, thus also mitigating traffic impacts. Centrally located MXDs, small and large, generate shorter vehicle trips, which reduces their impacts relative to outlying developments.

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Research Article: Measuring the Benefits of Compact Development on Vehicle Miles and Climate Change

September 2009

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71 Reads

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7 Citations

Environmental Practice

For climate stabilization, the United States (US) will need to cut its transportation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 60%–80% by 2050. As we cannot accomplish this reduction through vehicle and fuel technology alone, the environmental and transportation communities are focusing on strategies to reduce growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), reversing recent trends. The majority of recent VMT growth is due, not to population growth, but to the effects of urban environment, such as increased auto ownership, longer trips, and driving alone. The US Department of Energy forecasts that driving will continue to increase at almost threefold the growth in population. Even under the most stringent vehicle and fuel standards, transportation-related CO2 emissions will be 40% above the target level. In response, climate-change legislation has been passed in California and is pending in other states and in the US Congress that places strict new requirements on mandated environmental impact documentation. One limitation on compliance has been the lack of a unified set of scientific information on the underlying relationships between development form and VMT generation. This article distills and reconciles various forms of prior research on the subject, producing a unified quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that relate urban development forms with VMT and CO2. The findings will help improve the insightfulness and accuracy of the next generation of environmental documents. The article provides results of research and planning studies from throughout the US that indicate the degree to which developments with higher densities, mix of uses, accessible destinations, and interconnected streets reduce vehicle trips and VMT. Sources include regional blueprint studies, as well as project-specific studies such as Atlanta's Atlantic Station development, whose predicted trip reduction was found to be so compelling that the development was deemed a transportation control measure and air quality benefit by the Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Highway Administration. The article identifies the emerging practices in transportation impact analysis for assessing the degree to which the characteristics of development can reduce VMT and carbon impacts. It presents the empirical evidence of how vehicle travel is affected by density, diversity, walkability, regional accessibility, and distance from transit. It also reviews tools that transportation planners and analysts have available to capture these effects, including simple elasticities and new trip generation rates under consideration by the Institute of Transportation Engineers.Environmental Practice 11:196–208 (2009)


Urban development and climate change

November 2008

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102 Reads

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69 Citations

Journal of Urbanism International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability

With growing worldwide concern about global climate change, this article asks two critical questions: What reduction in vehicle‐miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the USA with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?; and What reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would accompany such a reduction in VMT? Based on four different planning literatures, the answer to the first question appears to be a 20–40% reduction in VMT for each increment of new development. The answer to the second question is a 7–10% reduction in total transport carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2050 under a plausible set of assumptions.


Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change

April 2008

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188 Reads

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51 Citations

A comprehensive study by leading urban planning researchers, this landmark book brought urban planning into the mainstream of climate change policy, demonstrating how urban development is both a key contributor to climate change and an essential factor in combating it – by reducing growth in driving. https://uli.bookstore.ipgbook.com/growing-cooler-products-9780874201789.php


Citations (9)


... Generally, land use models attempt to project future land use patterns based on historical trends, however, could potentially lead to biases or inaccuracies in the resulting land use and travel demand forecasts (Lemp et al., 2008). Because of this deficiency, scenario-based planning is increasingly applied since the late 1980s (Hickman et al., 2012;Jantz et al., 2004;Layman and Horner, 2010;Outwater et al., 2014;Shiftan et al., 2003;Waddell, 2011;Waddell, 2002;Wei et al., 2017). In a land use-transportation scenario planning, a set of land use scenarios that have certain probabilities of developing in the future or that are desired by planners is constructed first. ...

Reference:

Bi-level optimization approach for configuring population and employment distributions with minimized vehicle travel demand
Effect of Smart Growth Policies on Travel Demand
  • Citing Book
  • October 2013

... The purpose of the trip heavily influences the desire to walk. As reported [12], the most common purpose for walking or cycling in the United States is for "social/recreational" trips. Following social/recreational trips, the most prevalent purposes for walking trips include personal/family errands, shopping, visiting friends and relatives, and school/religious purposes. ...

Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook
  • Citing Book
  • August 2014

... Fig. 7b.4 shows tourists' dissatisfaction with the mixed traffic modes on the core area streets, presenting a decreasing trend towards the suburbs. This reveals the general traffic governance issues in the core areas brought about by rapid urbanization (Tian, Park, Ewing, Watten, & Walters, 2020). Interestingly, the positive attitude of tourists towards land use diversity also peaks in the core areas and decreases towards the suburbs, which shows a distribution completely opposite to the perception of motor vehicle diversity. ...

Traffic generated by mixed-use developments—A follow-up 31-region study
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment

... In a different study, the authors stated that compact urban development is the most preferred sustainability measure regarding sustainable development issues over the last 30 years (Bibri et al., 2020). In another study, it is stated that with compact city development, vehicle miles traveled are prone to decrease by 20%-40% (Ewing et al., 2008). Besides this strategy, there are various other effective strategies to alter the GHG emissions in urban areas. ...

Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change
  • Citing Book
  • April 2008

... LU mix refers to the amalgamation of different kinds of LUs like residential, commercial, institutional, recreational etc. in close proximity to each other. Such mixing is a normal and key feature of "new urbanism" in cities (Litman, 2018a) and it affects travel mode choice and vehicle trips (Ewing et al., 2011;Tian et al., 2015). A balanced LU mix tends to minimize the average trip distance as well as vehicle mile travelled (Kuzmyak & Pratt, 2003). ...

Traffic Generated by Mixed-Use Developments
  • Citing Article
  • January 2015

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

... This paradigm shift in the science of accessibility and politics has moved away from the focus on accessibility gained by ease-of-travel to proximity-based accessibility (Gil Solá et al., 2018;Gil Solá & Vilhelmson, 2022;Levine et al., 2012;Marquet & Miralles-Guasch, 2015a;Silva et al., 2023b). Proximity has been studied at the territorial level, analyzing densities, and built environments only (Boyko & Cooper, 2011;Brownstone & Golob, 2009), trying to determine the density of the city that can have a beneficial impact on transportation patterns, or the diversity needed to generate proximity trips (Ewing et al., 2011;Geurs & van Wee, 2004). While proximity has an important spatial aspect, it is also necessary to incorporate contextual factors, such as travel time or the built environment where activities take place (Brennan & Martin, 2012). ...

Traffic Generated by Mixed-Use Developments – A Six- Region Study Using Consistent Built Environmental Measures

Journal of Urban Planning and Development

... Tujuan utama dari keseimbangan pekerjaan dan hunian adalah untuk mengurangi durasi perjalanan, kemacetan, jarak tempuh kendaraan hingga emisi gas rumah kaca [35], [36], [37], [38]. Hal ini berkaitan dengan fenomena kenaikan harga rumah yang mendorong penduduk meninggalkan pusat kota dengan banyaknya lapangan kerja ke pinggiran kota. ...

Urban development and climate change
  • Citing Article
  • November 2008

Journal of Urbanism International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability

... These built environment characteristics, including density, compact index score, walkability, and public transportation availability, which are highly concerned with transit-oriented development and smart growth strategies, can encourage more escooter ridership. There is plenty of evidence that neighborhoods that follow TOD and smart growth principles and promote walking, cycling, and the use of public transportation while reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and vehicle ownership (Ewing et al. 2009;Kamruzzaman et al. 2015;Yang, Tian, and Ewing 2023). For example, smart growth strategies -mixed-use development, park and open space, urban growth boundary, transit-oriented development, and others -significantly impact travel behavior in more sustainable mode choices (Tian 2022). ...

Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change
  • Citing Article
  • January 2007

... (Daniels et al., 2000) describe method for calculating road user costs associated with construction projects, such as time wasted due to diversions, lower capacity, and delays in activating new facilities. (Walters and Ewing, 2009) found that denser urban development forms, accessible destinations, and interconnected streets minimize car trips and vehicle miles traveled. (Umar and Phoa, 2012) discovered that Fadama II road infrastructure decreased beneficiaries' commute distance, travel duration, waiting time, and transportation charges in Adamawa State, Nigeria. ...

Research Article: Measuring the Benefits of Compact Development on Vehicle Miles and Climate Change
  • Citing Article
  • September 2009

Environmental Practice