Jeroen P. van der Sluijs's research while affiliated with University of Bergen and other places

Publications (107)

Article
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Climate services’ main function has been to provide technical scientific evidence for decision-making in formal institutions. This article makes a case for recognising the diverse functions and meanings of climate services across the spectrum of institutions constituting climate governance. The article reports on research that identified climate se...
Preprint
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This paper explores how the modelling of energy systems may lead to undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We exemplify the problem with two cases: first, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modelling in the 1980s; and second, the modelling a...
Article
The accumulating scientific evidence on global insect and pollinator decline is fuelling calls for pollinator conservation policies. A broad range of regulating and incentivising policies is undoubtedly needed to address the diverse threats to pollinator abundance and diversity, but implementing policies and regulations is beset by socio-political...
Article
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New information on the lethal and sublethal effects of neonicotinoids and fipronil on organisms is presented in this review, complementing the previous Worldwide Integrated Assessment (WIA) in 2015. The high toxicity of these systemic insecticides to invertebrates has been confirmed and expanded to include more species and compounds. Most of the re...
Article
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Climate services, and research on climate services, have mutually developed over the past 20 years, with quality assessment a central issue for orienting both practitioners and researchers. However, quality assessment is becoming more complex as the field evolves, the range and types of climate services expands, and there is an increasing appeal to...
Technical Report
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We developed, tested and refined a novel incremental participatory scenario approach. This method allows for the development of normative scenarios, pathways that lead to desirable futures, with local communities, through a non-linear approach. Developments in the real world rarely follow straightforward linear paths. The approach inventories ‘hing...
Article
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The Earth’s entomofauna seems in an ongoing state of collapse. Insect decline could pose a global risk to key insect-mediated ecosystem functions and services such as soil and freshwater functions (nutrient cycling, soil formation, decomposition, and water purification), biological pest control, pollination services and food web support that all ar...
Article
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Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame. Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.
Preprint
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Pandemias pós-normais amazonialatitude.com/2020/05/15/pandemias-pos-normais/ Condução da crise do Covid-19 evidencia necessidade de uma nova abordagem científica [RESUMO] Ao abordar as pandemias em contextos locais, a ciência nunca pareceu tão necessária e útil e, ao mesmo tempo, limitada e impotente. O contrato existente entre a ciência e a soci...
Article
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Nell'affrontare le pandemie, la scienza non è mai apparsa più necessaria e utile, anche se al contempo limitata e impotente. L'attuale patto tra scienza e socie-tà sta cadendo a pezzi. È necessaria urgentemente una nuova alleanza per affrontare i giorni a venire. https://www.recentiprogressi.it/articoli.php?archivio=yes&vol_id=3347&id=33181 In ad...
Preprint
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Para enfrentar la pandemia, la ciencia nunca ha parecido más necesaria y útil, y a la vez más limitada e impotente. El contrato existente entre la ciencia y la so-ciedad se está desmoronando. Se necesita con urgencia un nuevo acuerdo para navegar el futuro próximo. Autores: David Waltner-Toews, Annibale Biggeri, Bruna De Marchi, Silvio Funtowicz,...
Preprint
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Face aux pandémies passées et actuelle, notre besoin et l’utilité de la science s’affirment comme jamais, alors même que nos connaissances et capacités paraissent si insuffisantes. Le « contrat » entre science et société a besoin d’être renouvelé. Une nouvelle entente sur les rôles et les bons usages de la science devient prioritaire afin d’anticip...
Article
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How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated assessment for sustainability? To what extent does the choice of the methodology condition the narrative produced by the analysis? The present work argues that the two questions are tightly coupled. The technique is never neutral. If we are the tools of our tools, as suggested by Thoreau,...
Technical Report
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We conducted case studies using a novel incremental scenario approach. With local actors, we co-developed visions of desirable futures, normative scenarios that might lead towards those futures, and inventoried ‘hinge points’: critical moments in time where things might lead to a better or worse future. To bridge the latter, specific information or...
Article
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In this study we assess whether availability of silver could constrain a large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV). While silver-paste use in photovoltaics cell metallization is becoming more efficient, solar photovoltaics power capacity installation is growing at an exponential pace. Along photovoltaics, silver is also employed in an arra...
Article
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Increasing numbers of scholars and practitioners appeal to procedural theories of ‘co-production’ as they work to transform climate science into climate services. Most work in this direction theorises co-production as an ‘iterative and interactive’ process between climate service providers and users, with success measured mainly in terms of the use...
Code
Python-based Jupyter notebooks on applied statistics, uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of mathematical models output, quality of evidence used for policy and sensitivity auditing. Contents: https://github.com/pbstark/Sensitivity-Sather/blob/master/index.ipynb The collection of Jupyter notebooks can be run from the docker: http...
Article
This paper proposes a method for in-depth mapping of heterogeneity in expert judgment, in the evaluation of the quality of epidemiological studies used in regulatory chemical risk assessment. Whereas consensus in scientific advisory groups provides legitimation for subsequent political action, it can also have unintended effects on the quality of r...
Article
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On 28 April 2018 the European Parliament voted for a complete and permanent ban on all outdoor uses of the three most commonly used neonicotinoid pesticides. With the partial exception of the state of Ontario, Canada, governments elsewhere have failed to take action. Below is a letter, signed by 232 scientists from around the world, urgently callin...
Article
This special issue contains a selection of papers presented during the 2014 Bergen meeting, complemented with short perspectives by young PNS-inspired scholars, presented at a mini-symposium “Post-normal times? New thinking about science and policy advice” held on 21 October 2016 in celebration of Silvio Funtowicz' 70th birthday, also in Bergen. In...
Article
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Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible to f...
Article
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There are numerous challenges to mobilising high quality knowledge in support of climate adaptation. Urgent adaptive action often has to be taken on the basis of imperfect information, with the risk of maladaptive consequences. These issues of knowledge quality can be particularly acute in vulnerable developing countries like Bangladesh, where ther...
Article
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Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, which puts at stake the existence of species, ecosystem resilience and global food security. Globally, 87 of major food crops depend on animal pollination. Together these account for 35 % of the world food production volume. Pollinator mediated crops are i...
Article
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In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature und...
Article
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We assessed the state of knowledge regarding the effects of large-scale pollution with neonicotinoid insecticides and fipronil on non-target invertebrate species of terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments. A large section of the assessment is dedicated to the state of knowledge on sublethal effects on honeybees (Apis mellifera) because this...
Article
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Large-scale use of the persistent and potent neonicotinoid and fipronil insecticides has raised concerns about risks to ecosystem functions provided by a wide range of species and environments affected by these insecticides. The concept of ecosystem services is widely used in decision making in the context of valuing the service potentials, benefit...
Chapter
Although trends in climate change are expected to continue, there is considerable uncertainty about the precise rate of change and its concrete impact. A key element in decision-making on climate adaptation is how to deal with this uncertainty. This chapter provides the background information on dealing with uncertainties: descriptions of uncertain...
Article
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In regulatory toxicology, quality assessment of in vivo studies is a critical step for assessing chemical risks. It is crucial for preserving public health studies that are considered suitable for regulating chemicals are robust. Current procedures for conducting quality assessments in safety agencies are not structured, clear or consistent. This l...
Book
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Offering support in communicating uncertainty When presenting the results from a policy study, it is a challenge for researchers, authors and communicators to adequately and concisely inform their public on important uncertainty issues. Presenting the information in a way that addresses the often varying informational needs of target audiences add...
Article
Epidemiology and quantitative microbiological risk assessment are disciplines in which the same public health measures are estimated, but results differ frequently. If large, these differences can confuse public health policymakers. This article aims to identify uncertainty sources that explain apparent differences in estimates for Campylobacter sp...
Article
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In less than 20 years, neonicotinoids have become the most widely used class of insecticides with a global market share of more than 25%. For pollinators, this has transformed the agrochemical landscape. These chemicals mimic the acetylcholine neurotransmitter and are highly neurotoxic to insects. Their systemic mode of action inside plants means p...
Data
Relationship between log10 imidacloprid concentration and log10 Ephemeroptera and Isopoda abundance in surface water. a) Ephemeroptera (P = 0.001), b) its most abundant species Cloeon dipterum (P = 0.172), c) Isopoda (P = 0.024), d) its most abundant species Asellus aquaticus (P = 0.915). The negative relationships for the orders are significant at...
Data
Relationship between log10 imidacloprid concentration and log10 Neotaenioglossa and Odonata abundance in surface water. a) Neotaenioglossa (P = 0.610), b) its most abundant species Bithynia tentaculata (P = 0.062), c) Odonata (P = 0.051), d) its most abundant species Ischnura elegans (P = 0.014). The negative relationship for the order Odonata is n...
Data
Relationship between log10 imidacloprid concentration and log10 Tubificidae and Veneroida abundance in surface water. a) Tubificidae (P = 0.210), b) its most abundant species Stylaria lacustris (P = 0.351), c) Veneroida (P = 0.776), d) its most abundant species Pisidium nitidum (P = 0.578). (TIF)
Data
Relationship between log10 imidacloprid concentration and log10 Rhynchobdellae and Trichoptera abundance in surface water. a) Rhynchobdellae (P = 0.937), b) its most abundant species Helobdella stagnalis (P = 0.440), c) Trichoptera (P = 0.692), d) its most abundant species Mystacides longicornis (P = 0.651). (TIF)
Data
Relationship between log10 imidacloprid concentration and log10 Coleoptera and Hemiptera species abundance in surface water. a) Coleoptera (P = 0.510), b) its most abundant species Noterus clavicornis (P = 0.705), c) Hemiptera (P = 0.115), d) its most abundant species Sigara striata (P = 0.617). (TIF)
Article
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Imidacloprid is one of the most widely used insecticides in the world. Its concentration in surface water exceeds the water quality norms in many parts of the Netherlands. Several studies have demonstrated harmful effects of this neonicotinoid to a wide range of non-target species. Therefore we expected that surface water pollution with imidaclopri...
Data
Relationship between log10 imidacloprid concentration and log10 Basommatophora and Diptera abundance in surface water. a) Basommatophora (P<0.001), b) its most abundant species Gyraulus albus (P = 0.021), c) Diptera (P<0.001), d) its most abundant species Endochironomus albipennis (P = 0.131). The first three relationships are significant at P<0.05...
Data
The dataset and operations performed on the raw dataset of abundance data. (DOC)
Article
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In their book Uncertainty and Quality of Science for Policy (1990), Funtowicz and Ravetz argued the need to extend traditional methods and techniques of quality assurance in policy-related science. Since then, these ideas have been operationalized further and applied. Particularly relevant have been the recourse to extended peer review, to be inten...
Article
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Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discu...
Data
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Supplementary Material for paper: “Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.”
Article
Uncertainty complexity and dissent make climate change hard to tackle with normal scientific procedures. In a post-normal perspective the normal science task of "getting the facts right" is still regarded as necessary but no longer as fully feasible nor as sufficient to interface science and policy. It needs to be complemented with a task of explor...
Article
Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choi...
Chapter
Climate change is one of the most pressing global problems of our time. Two major responses have emerged to deal with this issue: mitigation and adaptation. Climate impact assessment is one of a family of interdisciplinary studies that focus on the interaction between nature and society, drawing theory, methods and tools from the biophysical, socia...
Article
The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper presents a critical review of an attempt to objectify this debate through the calculation of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident in the ExternE project. A careful dissection of the ExternE approach resulted in a list of 30 ca...
Article
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IN THEIR POLICY FORUM “THE BIODIVERsity and ecosystem services science-policy interface” (4 March, p. 1139), C. Perrings et al. frame the new Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as a body responsible primarily for assessment. They consistently base their elaboration of the work of IPBES on the experiences of pa...
Article
The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and i...
Article
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About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on a transition from a technocratic model of science advising to the paradigm of "post-normal science" (PNS). In response to a scandal around uncertainty management in 1999, a Guidance for "Uncertainty Assessment and Communication" was developed with advi...
Conference Paper
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Resilience, as a concept in the context of climate change adaptation, has been used under numerous definitions. Although resilience is perceived as a desirable attribute of (social-) ecological systems, the use of this concept has so far remained mainly at the conceptual level. In literature, the concept has been used as specific system attribute,...
Article
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When analysts do model-based scientific assessments of complex environmental problems, they have to make many assumptions. This inevitably involves – to some degree – subjective judgements by the analysts. Although the potential value-ladenness of model-based assessments has been extensively problematized in literature, this has not so far led to a...
Article
The international debate about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and climate science in the aftermath of ‘Climategate’ gives cause for reflection. While the main emphasis lies on evaluating the procedures of the IPCC during the production of the fourth assessment report, too little attention has been paid to the political role of...
Article
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The present paper describes a frame-based approach to situated-decision-making on climate change. Building on the multidisciplinary literature on the relationship between frames and decision-making, it argues that decision-makers may gain from making frames more explicit and using them for generating different visions about the central issues. Fram...
Article
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Climate change may pose considerable challenges to coastal cities, particularly in low-lying urban deltas. Impacts are, however, associated with substantial uncertainties. This paper studies an uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system. This approach is operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, usi...
Article
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Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult e...
Article
Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy us...
Article
Toxicological studies have provided evidence of the toxicity of ultrafine particles (UFP), but epidemiological evidence for health effects of ultrafines is limited. No quantitative summary currently exists of concentration-response functions for ultrafine particles that can be used in health impact assessment. The goal was to specify concentration-...
Article
Background and objective: It has become commonplace to analyze separately atopic and non-atopic asthma in studies on genetic, environmental, and immunological characteristics of asthma. Atopic asthma is in most studies defined simply based on presence of both asthma and positive skin prick test or specific IgE antibodies. We here illustrate the pro...
Article
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Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups ha...