Jeongho Yoo’s research while affiliated with Pukyong National University and other places

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the American decoupling policy, the global value chains (GVCs) have been switched to regional GVCs, and, in the worst case, are subject to a potential alteration of reversing the GVCs, ultimately entailing a severe impact on international trade and the global energy market. This paper applies a quantitative approach using a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effects of the reverse GVC factors on the global economy, trade, and energy market. These reverse GVC factors will decrease the global GDP, and such effect will bring a greater influence on both China as well as the United States, which is pursuing decoupling. The increased trade costs due to these factors will reduce the GVC indices, mostly in ASEAN by 0.2~1.15%, followed by Korea, Japan and China. Surprisingly, the GVC index in the United States is expected to be strengthened due to the enhanced GVC with its allies such as Canada and Mexico. In China, the use of oil, gas and petroleum is expected to decrease by around 10%, and similar effects are expected in Korea and the EU. Among the world’s major energy producers, it is estimated that the US will reduce energy exports by 16–62% depending on the energy source, and the Middle East and Russia will significantly reduce their gas exports. The global energy market is shrinking, but in particular, the international gas market is expected to decrease by 27.3~38.6%.

Comprehensive studies examining how Korean e-commerce trade works are currently limited. This study seeks to explore whether Korea’s e-commerce trade is more applicable to traditional trade theory or to modern theories. According to our analysis, the share of intra-industry trade (IIT) in modern trade theory is less than that of general trade for Korean e-commerce. Therefore, trade based on comparative advantage can be more valid in explaining e-commerce trade. From results in analyzing the gravity model, it was found that Korea’s e-commerce exports are higher as IIT with its FTA partners. In contrast, it is found that the lower the proportion of e-commerce trade, the higher chance for the import growth. Lastly, this study looked at what kind of comparative advantage is realized through imports. While Korea has been mostly exporting goods of high quality, its major trading partners import products based on price and selection of goods. In order for Korea’s e-commerce to grow, a more strategic approach is necessary. A strategy of high price based on superior quality is not effective, and as e-commerce has radically reduced sales and marketing costs, so a price reduction needs to be reflected in the price of goods for consumers.

Various risks and uncertainties are strengthening the downside of the global economy. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the US–China conflict and the World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body’s shutdown on global logistics demand and to show the seriousness of the situation. Existing literature studies on protectionism or the US–China trade conflict were considered, with a focus on the effects of specific issues or impact on bilateral relations. No research has quantitatively considered the adverse effects of the Appellate Body’s shutdown. In this situation, questions can be raised whether the current global shipping logistics system can be sustainable or not. This paper attempts to estimate the shrinking demand for shipping logistics due to global protectionism. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model and trade-cargo-container conversion methodology, which differentiates this paper from previous studies, the paper suggests that the combination of tariffs and NTBs can severely reduce international trade and the demand for maritime logistics services. Depending on the scenario, port cargo is expected to decrease by 3.95 to 6.9 trillion tons, which can be half of the global cargo. Based on these estimates, this paper suggests that a catastrophe could occur in global trade order as well as global maritime logistics. Finally, underlining that the international trade order should not be severely damaged, this paper proposes that countries around the world should seriously discuss this issue at the 12th WTO Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Kazakhstan in June 2020.