Jens Brokate’s scientific contributions

The market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is a research topic which is often addressed, yet PEV market diffusion models differ in their approaches, the factors they include and results. Here, 40 market diffusion models for PEVs are compared in their scope, approach and findings to point out similarities or differences and make recommendations for future improvements in modeling in this field. Important input factors for the US are the purchase price and operating costs, while for Germany energy prices and the charging infrastructure are mentioned more often. Furthermore, larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results (until 2030) while the picture is not so clear for the medium- to long-term. Future market penetration models should include specific PEV features like the limited range of battery electric vehicles or access to charging infrastructure, which are currently not covered by many models. Also, the integration of current policy regulations and, if possible, indirect policy incentives would enhance research in this field.

The widespread adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will depend on public appreciation of the potential savings in ownership costs that PEVs offer over conventional, internal combustion energy vehicles (ICEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), including fuel savings. This study compares the energy consumption and estimated ownership costs of various technologies for multiple drive cycles in the United States and the European Union; identifies and quantifies the impacts of the main parameters influencing the ownership costs of PEVs in comparison with other powertrains for different timeframes, vehicle classes, and technologies; and assesses under what combinations of parameters the cost of PEVs can be competitive with other powertrains.

The coverage standard of the current publicly accessible charging infrastructure is insufficient and considered as a major obstacle in the introduction to the market of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Therefore, it is necessary to establish a publicly accessible charging infrastructure that features an appropriate coverage standard. The aim of this study is to support a spatially differentiated and demand-driven infrastructure development that ensures a desired coverage standard. For this purpose, we developed a calculation model which is applied to cumulated PEV sales and the inventory of publicly accessible charging points, in Germany with the spatial resolution of administrative districts. The required public charging-point evolution until 2040 is calculated for a given PEV market diffusion. In 2015, an appropriate coverage standard was achieved in only some regions of Germany; this means that the probability of finding access to a free public charging point at the desired time of charging is at least 90%. When one considers the entire country, however, it becomes clear that an additional 3600 publicly available charging points are needed. By 2040, the provision of approximately 730,000 public charging points could ensure an appropriate coverage standard for an estimated 17.8 million PEVs. The study results show that the rate of public charging-point deployment can decrease once PEV sales increase. The economically feasible operation of public charging infrastructure highly depends on the average utilization rate and it appears to be challenging to reach profitability by only selling the electricity.

Heutige Pkw-Kaufentscheidungen durch private Haushalte und durch Firmen bestimmen die Größe und Zusammensetzung der nationalen Pkw-Flotte für lange Zeiträume. Die adäquate Abbildung dieser Entscheidungen ist somit wichtig für Verkehrsplanung und Politikmaßnahmenentwicklung. In Deutschland existieren mehrere Ansätze zur Abschätzung des zukünftigen Pkw-Bestandes und zur Ableitung von Flottenzusammensetzung, Fahrleistung, Energieverbrauch und Emissionen. Vor dem Hintergrund möglicher disruptiver Veränderungen des Verkehrsmarktes durch die Automatisierung von Pkw stellt sich die Frage, inwieweit die bestehenden Modelle in der Lage sind, den Einfluss technologischer und (verkehrs-)politischer Veränderungen auf den Pkw-Bestand in Deutschland vorherzusagen. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt daher die bekanntesten Modellansätze zur Abbildung der deutschen Pkw-Flotte sowie einige der zur Modellierung geeigneten Datenquellen vor. Der Vergleich der Modelle zeigt, dass häufig lediglich Punktvorhersagen bereitgestellt werden, ohne die Transfomation explizit zu modellieren, und darüber hinaus die Entwicklung der Neuzulassungszahl als exogene Variable benötigt wird. Auch weisen die Modelle Lücken bei der Behandlung demographischer Entwicklungen und Trends oder der Betrachtung des Gesamtmarktes (Interdependenz zwischen Neu-und Gebrauchtwagenmarkt und der jeweiligen Anforderungen der Käufertypen) auf. Im zweiten Teil des Artikels wird ein neuartiger evolutionärer Simulationsansatz vorgeschlagen, der einige der identifizierten Probleme löst und es perspektivisch ermöglichen wird, die Einflüsse regional differenzierter Regulierungen oder (geteilter) autonomer Fahrzeugen auf Pkw-Besitz und-nutzung vorherzusagen.

Electric vehicles represent a promising approach to reduce local vehicle emissions, and thus to improve air quality in urban regions. Their market uptake, however, is still staying below expectations in most countries across Europe, due to monetary and non-monetary barriers. Besides monetary incentives, different non-monetary policy measures to promote electric mobility are either discussed or already in place. Since the different monetary incentives across Europe have proven to be not equally effective in the support of the electric vehicle market uptake, it is expected that non-monetary policy measures will not express the same impact level in different countries, too. Therefore, the project "Incentives for Cleaner Vehicles in Urban Europe" (I-CVUE) aims to understand the efficacy of policy measures that promote electric vehicles in Europe. In order to gain a deeper understanding a stated preference survey was executed that focusses on studying the value of policy measures and further non-monetary aspects of electric vehicle ownership. The online survey was directed at vehicle drivers and fleet managers in Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Spain. Based on the obtained data, country-specific willingness-to-pay values are deducted, which can be used to assess the utility of electric vehicles. The results are used to derive recommendations to city-level policy makers on efficient measures to promote electric vehicles.

Dramatic changes in the market for car powertrains seem possible in the near future. Triggered by the need of significant CO2 reduction in the transport sector according to COP21 (Paris) or air quality problems in European cities, the introduction of more and more electrified powertrains appears necessary. In order to analyze ways to reduce CO2-emissions from cars and especially the competition between various efficiency technologies, alternative powertrains, and fuels, the vehicle technologies scenario model VECTOR21 is used in different scenario simulations. Results for two recently modelled pathways for Germany show a continuous market penetration of electrified powertrains such as full hybrids and plug-in electric vehicles. A review of our recent VECTOR21 scenarios shows that in 2040, the final energy demand in liquid fuel products is reduced by 45% on average. Furthermore, we give insights in detailed analysis of the total costs of ownership in European countries like UK, NL, DE and ES for different type of car fleets. And we discuss consequences of different scenarios in terms of mobility costs, CO2-reduction in vehicle stock, etc.

Market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is an often-addressed research topic, yet PEV market diffusion models differ in approaches, factors included and results. Here, we compare 40 market diffusion models for PEVs in scope, approach and findings to point out similarities or differences and make recommendations vor futue research in this area. We find that important input factors for the US are purchase price and operating cost, while for Germany energy prices and charging infrastructure are mentioned more often. Furthermore, larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results while the picture is not so clear for the medium-to long-term. Future models should include specific PEV features like limited range of battery electric vehicles or access to charging infrastructure which are currently not covered by many models. Also, the integration of current policy regulations and, if possible, indirect policy incentives would enhance research in this field.

The article presents an innovative approach to model the market penetration of electrified powertrains in passenger cars on different international markets. For that purpose, the VECTOR21 model was enhanced to depict the major car markets in a disaggregated approach. The scenario simulation incorporates the interdependencies of the varying developments on different markets. In a scenario for the German and US car market, the effect of market interdependency is shown. The results display the influence of EV policies in the US on the EV penetration on other markets.

This report, D5.1 'The Capability of the Future Automotive Industrial Development of e‐Mobility', presents the activities of Work Package 5 (WP5) 'Analysis of the supply side of the future e-mobility market' of the eMAP project. The analysis aims at characterising the capabilities/ abilities to executes’ of industries in technology, viability and services to supply the necessary vehicle and infrastructure technologies for electromobility. Market trends and developments in the automotive industry in general, including corporate strategies, investment plans, co-operations and research projects/research networks are analysed as far as possible. Techno-economic data on vehicle technologies will be provided by meta-analysis for review by experts.