Jeffrey S. Passel's research while affiliated with Pew Research Center and other places
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Publications (76)
Recently released data from the 2010 Mexican Census shows a large increase of return-migrants from the United States. This paper intends to measure age, gender and educational selectivity of Mexican return-migrants from the US during the period 2005-2010. Focusing on the differences in return before and after 2008, we aim to contribute to the under...
Executive Summary Unauthorized immigrants living in the United States are more geographically dispersed than in the past and are more likely than either U.S. born residents or legal immigrants to live in a household with a spouse and children. In addition, a growing share of the children of unauthorized immigrant parents—73%—were born in this count...
This report discusses methods of measuring unauthorized migration to the United States. The “residual method” involves comparing an analytic estimate of the legal foreign-born population with a survey-based measure of the total foreign-born population. The difference between the two population figures is a measure of the unauthorized migrant popula...
The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emig...
Analysis of the March 2005 Current Population Survey shows that there were 11.1 million unauthorized migrants in the United States a year ago. Based on analysis of other data sources that offer indications of the pace of growth in the foreign-born population, the Center developed an estimate of 11.5 to 12 million for the unauthorized population as...
The demographics of U.S. elementary and secondary schools are changing rapidly as a result of record-high immigration. These demographic shifts are occurring alongside implementation of the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act, the landmark 2002 federal law that holds schools accountable for the academic performance of limited English speaking children...
Immigrants compose an increasingly large share of the U.S. labor force and growing share of low-wage workers. Immigrants' hourly wages are lower on average than those for natives. Immigrant workers are much more likely than native workers to drop out of high school. Three-fourths of all U.S. workers with less than a ninth grade education are immigr...
This guidebook is designed to help local policy makers, program implementers, and advocates use U.S. Census and other data sources to identify immigrant populations in their local communities (their characteristics, contributions, and needs). It lists relevant data sources, the information contained in each, where they can be located, and software...
This brief examines changes in the number of naturalized citizens in the United States and the rate of naturalization, also exploring the size and characteristics of the pool of immigrants now or soon to be eligible to naturalize. Analysis of data from the Current Population Survey indicates that beginning in the mid-1990s, the number of naturalize...
This article provides information on key demographic, social, and economic characteristics of children in the United States that affect the child's health and access to health insurance. The data, drawn principally from the March 1999 supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS), focus on racial/ethnic groups and generational categories (i.e.,...
This report assesses the impact of immigration on the United States. The first section examines basic demographic trends regarding the scale of immigration, its pace, and its characteristics. Census 2000 figures suggest that immigration levels, particularly levels of undocumented and temporary immigration, are substantially higher than originally b...
This paper examines the assimilation of immigrant families in the United States. Chapter 1, "Introduction," reviews basic issues. Chapter 2, "Why Discuss the Integration of Immigrant Families?" examines such issues as continuing mismatches between immigration and immigrant policies, population dispersal, the shifting political climate, and policy t...
Cet article indique des projections de population concernant les Etats-Unis a partir de donnees nouvelles sur la fecondite, la mortalite, l'immigration et l'intermariage. L'article insiste sur les precautions methodologiques qui doivent accompagner tous travaux demographiques sur ces questions aux Etats-Unis, en tenant compte, non seulement de la c...
Since 1960, the Native American population has exhibited explosive growth, increasing from 552,000 to 1,959,000, or 255 percent. The average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent, extending over a 30-year period, is demographically impossible without immigration – in fact, of the 1.4 million growth only 762,000 comes from natural increase, whereas 645,...
This paper proposes a new model for population projections. This model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohort-component models), but considers the population arrayed by generation. The model incorporates 4 generations: a foreign-born first generation (the immigrants...
The authors attempt to predict future U.S. immigration trends in light of changing policies. "Changes in policy and the presence of illegal entrants complicates measuring and projecting immigration flows. Acknowledging the risks, this article sketches the possible long-term impact of the immigration trends we observe today, if they were to continue...
This paper traces the evolution of immigration to the United States during the 20th century with an emphasis on the racial and ethnic composition of the immigration flow. The changing generational composition of the country's population is described from 1850 through 1990. A new population projection/estimation methodology is employed to measure th...
The focus is the question “Has IRCA worked?” Although IRCA reduced the undocumented resident population by nearly 1.7 million residents and an unknown number of the agricultural legalizations, a significant number of undocumented immigrants, at least 2.0 million, remained as of 1988. Some were long term residents, but others appear to have arrived...
The focus is the question “Has IRCA worked?” Although IRCA reduced the undocumented resident population by nearly 1.7 million residents and an unknown number of the agricultural legalizations, a significant number of undocumented immigrants, at least 2.0 million, remained as of 1988. Some were long term residents, but others appear to have arrived...
Immigration has been important throughout the history of the United States, but in recent years it has become even more so. A full assessment of immigration’s impact on U.S. society depends on accurate measurement of the phenomenon. Net immigration consists of three major components—legal immigration, emigration, and undocumented immigration. Legal...
This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens included in the April 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS) derived by subtracting an estimate of the legally resident foreign born population from the survey estimate of all foreign born residents. The methodology is similar to that used by Warren and Passel (1987) with the 1980 c...
This article compares two different methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles Country (i.e., the Los Angeles Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area or PMSA). The first method, called the survey-based method, uses a combination of 1980 census data and the results of a survey conducted in Los Angeles County in 198...
This paper presents estimates showing that 2 million undocumented aliens were included in the 1980 census; of these 1.1 million were born in Mexico. The estimates are developed by comparing estimates of aliens counted in the 1980 census with estimates of the legally resident alien population based principally on data collected by the Immigration an...
The foreign-born population of the United States is a sizeable and rapidly growing segment of the population. This paper uses data on the foreign-born population from a supplement to the Current Population Survey to describe the growth and changes in composition that have occurred since the 1980 census. Change in the foreign-born population results...
"This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens included in the April 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS) derived by subtracting an estimate of the legally resident foreign born population from the survey estimate of all foreign born residents.... Also presented are similar estimates for the November 1979 CPS.... Estimates ar...
One important characteristic that distinguishes contemporary immigration from previous waves of immigration is the presence of significant numbers of undocumented, or illegal, immigrants. The dearth of sound information on undocumented immigrants makes formulating and implementing policy concerning this clandestine segment of the population extreme...
The count of American Indians in the 1980 census was over 70 per cent larger than the 1970 census count. An assessment of the demographic basis for this change shows that the cohorts from ages 10 to 74 in 1980 increased by substantial amounts, reaching 35 per cent for many ages. Increases of this nature in the absence of immigration are demographic...
This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 census for each state and the District of Columbia. The estimates, which indicate that 2.06 million undocumented aliens were counted in the 1980 census, are not based on individual records, but are aggregate estimates derived by a residual technique. The census...
"This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 [U.S.] census for each state and the District of Columbia. The estimates, which indicate that 2.06 million undocumented aliens were counted in the 1980 census, are not based on individual records, but are aggregate estimates derived by a residual technique. Th...
This article reports the results of applying a sex ratio-based method to estimate the number of undocumented Mexicans residing in the United States in 1980. The approach centers on a comparison between the hypothetical sex ratio one would expect to find in Mexico in the absence of emigration to the United States and the sex ratio that is in fact re...
Through the use of their own empirical studies, the authors
address three themes: 1) immigration in the global context; 2) the
scale and characteristics of immigration to the United States; and
3) the. expected future impact of immigration to the United States.
The authors focus on U.S. immigration by giving an empirical
comparative history which s...
Citations
... I estimate the potential effect of emigration on my results using estimates of emigration rates reported in Van Hook et al. (2006), who estimate emigration circa the year 2000 using the Current Population Survey (CPS). Van Hook and coauthors report estimates for the foreign-born population by age and country of origin. ...
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... However, stating that more male interviewers should be employed as to increase the number of retrieved items might be highly controversial at this point and would require more detailed investigations that are, optimally, based on experimental designs. Furthermore, there is contrary evidence from past research where respondents were more likely to answer sensitive questions by female interviewers (Heer and Passel 1987). The conclusion is that gender effects of interviewers are either quite volatile or depend on the type of questions asked. ...
... After the alien registration program ended in 1981, researchers endeavored to calculate emigration based on prior findings on emigration by age and sex and on emigration by country or region of birth for the most recent period and earlier period (Passel and Woodrow 1987;Woodrow and Passel 1990). Essentially, several studies led to development of sets of emigration rates by country or region of birth to be applied with foreign-born populations (Woodrow 1991b;Ahmed and Robinson 1994;Mulder 2003;Hollmann, Mulder, and Kallan 2000). ...
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... prob: of deportation p j;t À Á ¼ # of immigrants deported in year t in area j D j;t À Á # of illegal immigrants in year t in area jðS j;t Þ We obtained the total number of illegal immigrants residing in a state in 1990, and in 2000 from the Department of Homeland Security estimates. 12 We obtained the total number of illegal immigrants residing in a state/census region in 1980 from Passel and Woodrow (1984). To obtain the number of illegal immigrant living in a state in intermediate year, we assumed that illegal population increased at a constant rate during a particular decade. ...
... Few have explicitly compared black and white attitudes on immigration opinion. Work that has been completed thus far has generally focused on black elites (Fuchs 1990; Diamond 1998) or has been limited by the small number of blacks available in many typical national survey samples. ...
... Of these, 1.7 million demonstrated long-term residence in the United States, and 1.3 million documented prior em-2 Estimates of the size of the undocumented population seem to show that the IRCA was not successful on attaining its main goal. In 1980, the size of the illegal population was estimated to be between 2 and 4 million people (Bean, Edmonston and Passel (1990)), and to have grown in a range of 100,000 to 300,000 per year during 1980 to 1986 (Woodrow, Passel and Warren (1987)). In 2000, fourteen years after the passage of the IRCA, the estimated size of this population had more than doubled (at least), reaching 8.4 million (Passel and Cohn (2008)). ...
... In the 1970s, Jamaica and Haiti were among the top 14 countries of origin for undocumented immigrants to the United States (Bryce-Laporte 1972). In 1980Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Trinidad and Tobago accounted for as much as 7.1% of the total unauthorized immigrant population to the United States (Passel and Woodrow 1984overstayed their visa) were eventually allowed to apply, court challenges were necessary for the acceptance of their applications, making the process much more difficult for these immigrants. This disadvantaged foreign-born blacks because they are more likely than the Mexican-born to become undocumented by overstaying their visa. ...
... As a result, the undocumented population grew slowly and had increased to just 3.2 million by 1986 (Wasem, 2011), when Congress passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). This legislation contained two legalization programs that temporarily reduced the undocumented population to 1.9 million persons in 1988 (Woodrow and Passel, 1990). By 1990, however, the undocumented inflow had resumed its former pace (Orrenius and Zavodny, 2003), and two years later, the population was back up to 3.4 million (Warren, 2000). ...
Reference: Explaining Undocumented Migration to the US
... Analyses of emigration levels for 1960-1970(Warren & Peck 1980) and 1970 have led to an assumption that 160,000 persons emigrate annually, with about 133,000 assumed as foreign-born persons (see Hollmann 1990). In the 1980s, the Census Bureau explored a new approach to measuring emigration -multiplicity sampling (Woodrow 1990b;Woodrow & Passel 1989;Woodrow 1991a, b). With special questions added to the July 1987, June 1988, and November 1989 Current Population Surveys, residents provided information on relatives living abroad who might be emigrants. ...
... The large amount of manipulation of entry dates by amnesty applicants that these figures imply, together with the low cost of obtaining false documentation of residency and lax standards for approving applications, suggests that in addition to those eligible, many technically ineligible immigrants in Bexar County (i.e., those who had only recently arrived in the country) were likely granted work authorization. 5 Despite this, Woodrow and Passel (1990) estimated that nationwide, one-third of undocumented Mexican residents did not apply for amnesty, and that those that did not apply generally arrived in the country after 1982. After the INS offices closed, 5 On the morning of the last day of LAW amnesty, over 500 people were lined up outside of the San Antonio INS office (Ramirez and Crouse 1988). ...
