Jeffrey A. Taylor’s research while affiliated with Westat and other places

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Publications (9)


The Impact of Electoral Arrangements on Minority Representation: District Magnitude and the Election of African American State Legislators
  • Article

February 2020

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21 Reads

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2 Citations

Election Law Journal Rules Politics and Policy

Paul S. Herrnson

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Jeffrey A. Taylor

The Impact of Electoral Arrangements on Minority Representation: District Magnitude and the Election of African American State Legislators
  • Article
  • Full-text available

February 2020

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73 Reads

Election Law Journal Rules Politics and Policy

Previous research shows that multimember districts (MMDs) disadvantage African American candidates. However, these studies focus on only a few aspects of the electoral process and they may be time bound. Using a new dataset, we examine the impact of district magnitude (the number of candidates elected from a single constituency) on the emergence, nomination, and general election of African Americans to state legislatures. Using data from recent elections to the Maryland state legislature, we find no evidence that district magnitude dims the electoral prospects of African American candidates. Our findings suggest that biases attributed to MMDs may have resulted from laws, partisan practices, customs, and political attitudes. The implementation of the Voting Rights Act, broad societal changes, and strategic adjustments by Black candidates and voters may have mitigated the effects of previous biases resulting in the election of more African Americans in MMDs and other districts.

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The Impact of District Magnitude on the Legislative Behavior of State Representatives

October 2017

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46 Reads

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8 Citations

Political Research Quarterly

This study demonstrates that district magnitude (the number of officials elected from an electoral district) affects the behavioral choices and policymaking contributions of legislators. We theorize that legislators elected from districts of larger magnitudes focus much of their efforts on relatively low-cost, high-visibility activities that allow for easy credit claiming, while their colleagues from lower magnitude districts focus more on relatively high-cost, low-visibility work required to move policy proposals through the legislative process. We test our hypotheses using data recording the legislative activities of members of the Maryland House of Delegates, which elects its member from districts of different magnitudes. The results, which are mostly supportive, have implications for the impact of institutional structures on representation and policymaking.


FIGURE 1 Hypothetical Effects of Salient Tea Party Cue  
TABLE 1 Perceived Ideology of Republican and Tea Parties
FIGURE 2  
Subpartisan Cues and Ideological Distinctions: The Effect of the Tea Party Label on Voter Perceptions of Congressional Candidates*: Subpartisan Cues and Ideological Distinctions

November 2016

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127 Reads

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1 Citation

Social Science Quarterly

Objective We aim to fill a gap in the voter heuristic literature by estimating the impact of subparty cues—labels that connect candidates to an intraparty faction—on perceptions of candidates’ ideological positions. We argue that the Tea Party label acts as a subpartisan cue, and should affect perceptions of both Republicans and their Democratic opponents. Methods We measure ideological perceptions using data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), and measure Tea Party “saliency” based on how often candidates were linked with the Tea Party in news media. Using probit regression, we estimate the impact of Tea Party saliency on ideological perceptions of candidates. Results We find that Republican candidates often associated with the Tea Party are more likely to be perceived as conservative or very conservative, even when we control for candidate and voter ideology, while their Democratic opponents are perceived to be more moderate. Conclusion The results suggest that extremizing cues like the Tea Party label can have a moderating effect on opponents. These findings shed new light on the role and interaction of party‐related voting cues, and have important implications for elections, campaigns, and voter opinion and behavior.


The Impact of District Magnitude on Voter Drop-Off and Roll-Off in American Elections

November 2015

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36 Reads

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4 Citations

Legislative Studies Quarterly

This study demonstrates that multimember districts (MMDs) complicate ballots, reduce voter information, and increase incentives for strategic voting in ways that reduce voter participation. Using data from three states that elect members of at least one legislative chamber from both single-member districts (SMDs) and MMDs, we test hypotheses about the impact on MMDs on ballot drop-off (selecting fewer candidates for an office than permissible) and roll-off (not voting in down-ballot races). We find support for both sets of hypotheses, with the strongest results related to ballot drop-off. The results have broad implications for voter participation, representation, and election administration in the many states and localities that use MMDs to elect public officials. © 2015 The Comparative Legislative Research Center of The University of Iowa.


The Impact of District Magnitude on Ballot Drop-off and Roll-off

January 2015

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13 Reads

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1 Citation

Legislative Studies Quarterly

This study demonstrates that multimember districts (MMDs) complicate ballots, reduce voter information, and increase incentives for strategic voting in ways that reduce voter participation. Using data from three states that elect members of at least one legislative chamber from both single-member districts (SMDs) and MMDs, we test hypotheses about the impact on MMDs on ballot drop-off (selecting fewer candidates for an office than permissible) and roll-off (not voting in down-ballot races). We find support for both sets of hypotheses, with the strongest results related to ballot drop-off. The results have broad implications for voter participation, representation, and election administration in the many states and localities that use MMDs to elect public officials.



The Impact of District Magnitude on Campaign Fundraising

November 2013

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26 Reads

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12 Citations

Legislative Studies Quarterly

The number of legislators elected in a single district influences many aspects of state legislative elections. However, there is a dearth of research on how district magnitude influences campaign fundraising. We theorize that the greater competition for funds in multimember districts results in candidates raising less money and encourages them to be more entrepreneurial in their fundraising efforts. Specifically, we expect multimember district candidates to raise contributions from more diverse sets of interests than candidates in single-member districts, raise more funds out of state, and create more unique financial constituencies. Using data on candidates for Maryland's House of Delegates in 2006 and 2010, we find support for our hypotheses.


Citations (4)


... Trabajos previos sobre el tema tienden a utilizar modelos de conteo para estimar el efecto que diferentes variables independientes tienen sobre la efectivi-dad legislativa de los miembros del congreso. El más común ha sido el modelo de regresión binominal negativa (Anderson et al. 2003;Hasecke y Mycoff 2007;Cox y Terry 2008;Taylor et al. 2018). Este camino, sin embargo, tiene una desventaja: no incluye un límite máximo lógico (upper bound) en la estimación. ...

Reference:

Centralidad y productividad legislativa en la Cámara de Diputados Argentina, 1983-2019
The Impact of District Magnitude on the Legislative Behavior of State Representatives
  • Citing Article
  • October 2017

Political Research Quarterly

... This ''hijacking'' vis-à-vis cross-endorsement with minor parties can affect how voters come to judge mainstream parties (e.g., Gervais and Taylor 2016;McKinley 2013). A candidate running as a Democrat will surely be considered by a typical voter to be left-of-center on a unidimensional ideological space, even if the voter knows nothing of the candidate's views other than their party affiliation. ...

Subpartisan Cues and Ideological Distinctions: The Effect of the Tea Party Label on Voter Perceptions of Congressional Candidates*: Subpartisan Cues and Ideological Distinctions

Social Science Quarterly

... Similarly, the roll off phenomenon in the U.S. has been traditionally associated with voter fatigue (Walker, 1966) and, more recently, with lack of information (Wattenberg et al., 2000). Herrnson et al. (2015) study three U.S. states that elect members of at least one legislative chamber from both single and multimember districts and find that, as district magnitude increases, voters are more likely to roll off in their state legislative races. Cunow (2014) investigates Brazilian municipal elections using both observational and experimental data and finds that the number of candidates reduces effective participation. ...

The Impact of District Magnitude on Voter Drop-Off and Roll-Off in American Elections
  • Citing Article
  • November 2015

Legislative Studies Quarterly

... Evidencia más reciente muestra que en sistemas de RPLA también existe una ventaja de titularidad, aunque más débil a medida que aumenta la magnitud de distrito (Cox y Morgenstern, 1995). A diferencia de sistemas con distritos uninominales, en que los titulares tienden a utilizar su gasto de manera reactiva en aquellos distritos con menores márgenes de ventaja (Benoit y Marsh, 2003), cuando aumenta la magnitud del distrito, la proporción de votos necesaria para ganar un escaño disminuye y las contiendas se vuelven más competitivas (Cox y Thies, 2000;Curry et al., 2013). Cuando hay más candidatos, la barrera de entrada para ganar un escaño es menor y, por ende, los márgenes de victoria también son menores. ...

The Impact of District Magnitude on Campaign Fundraising
  • Citing Article
  • November 2013

Legislative Studies Quarterly