Jane W. Baldwin’s research while affiliated with Columbia University and other places

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Publications (19)


Example photos and satellite images illustrating how topography influences the terrestrial water cycle and the land surface. (a) Orographic lift of moist air leads to cloud formation along the Santa Lucia Mountains south of Monterey, California (photo by Robert Schwemmer; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wea03310_‐_Flickr_‐_NOAA_Photo_Library.jpg), (b) topography is expressed in typical landforms in the Tagliamento valley in Italy, namely mountains (Julian Alps) and plains (with Gemona del Friuli; photo by Mirco Peschiutta; https://imaggeo.egu.eu/view/5046/), (c) vegetation zonation on Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, spanning an elevation range of almost 5,000 m, resulting in strong climatic gradients (image taken from Google Earth; Image Landsat/Copernicus), and (d) large‐scale redistribution of water in the Indus river valley, fed by the Indus flowing from the Tibetan Himalayas (image taken from Google Earth; Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO; Image Landsat/Copernicus).
Topography influences the amount of precipitation and potential evaporation at the land surface, which can be combined into the climatic water balance (P−Epot $P-{E}_{\mathit{pot}}$). (a) Examples of elevation profiles for precipitation and potential evaporation for different mountain ranges (with average latitudes shown in parentheses). Note the different x‐axes for the panels. Each of the two panels corresponds to a 0.5 × 2° rectangular swath located on one side of and perpendicular to the mountain ridge; exact locations can be found in Figure S1 in Supporting Information S1. (b) Rain shadow due to orographic barrier, mirrored in vegetation patterns; the longitude ranges from ca. 74° $74{}^{\circ}$W to 69° $69{}^{\circ}$W. Image is taken from Google Earth (Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO; Image Landsat/Copernicus). In panels (a) and (b), solid lines indicate the mean and shaded areas indicate the standard deviation; climate data are extracted from CHELSA climatologies (Brun et al., 2022b; Karger et al., 2017) and topographic data from Geomorpho90m (Amatulli et al., 2020). (c) Aspect‐induced contrast between sunny and shady slopes and denser tree cover in the valley where water converges; the original image was provided by Jim McNamara and the data are taken from McNamara et al. (2018).
Drought paradox in the European Alps. During the 2003 heatwave or with a warming climate, actual evaporation will respond differently with elevation. At low elevations, water is limited and evaporation is reduced, while at high elevations greater evaporative demand and longer growing seasons enhance evaporation. The solid lines (left axis) show evaporation anomalies, computed based on the 2001–2003 mean and averaged over 100 m elevation bins, for the 2003 heatwave (magenta) and for a +3°C climate change scenario (cyan); the shaded areas show interquartiles ranges. The solid points (right axis) show the ratio of evaporation anomalies to precipitation anomalies for 334 catchments, indicating how strongly evaporation anomalies contributed to the streamflow deficits during the 2003 growing season. From Mastrotheodoros et al. (2020) with permission from Springer Nature.
Global distribution of landforms based on Karagulle et al. (2017), excluding Antarctica. Lakes are from the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (Lehner & Döll, 2004). According to this classification, uplands (mountains 31%, hills 20%, plateaus 6%) comprise 57% of the land area, and lowlands (plains) comprise 43%. This compares well with Pelletier et al. (2016b) who estimate 54% uplands and 44% lowlands globally (the remainder are water and ice).
(a) Along topographic gradients, we find typical geomorphic and fluvial landforms, ranging from mountainous headwaters to large rivers traversing sedimentary plains. Mountains are dominated by erosion, while plains are dominated by deposition. Weathering at high elevations is mostly physical due to lower temperatures, leading to coarse soils and sediments, including alpine sediments like talus and moraines. At smaller scales, topography organizes the critical zone by controlling (b) soil and sediment depth, (c) the thickness of the weathered zone, and (d) the distribution of bedrock fractures. Figure in (a) is based on https://www.nps.gov/subjects/geology/fluvial‐landforms.htm (originally by Trista L. Thornberry‐Ehrlich, Colorado State University, after Miller, 1990), (b) and (c) are based on Riebe et al. (2017), and (d) is based on Pelletier et al. (2016b).

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The Influence of Topography on the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle
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January 2025

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908 Reads

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Jane W. Baldwin

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Mark O. Cuthbert

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[...]

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Topography affects the distribution and movement of water on Earth, yet new insights about topographic controls continue to surprise us and exciting puzzles remain. Here we combine literature review and data synthesis to explore the influence of topography on the global terrestrial water cycle, from the atmosphere down to the groundwater. Above the land surface, topography induces gradients and contrasts in water and energy availability. Long‐term precipitation usually increases with elevation in the mid‐latitudes, while it peaks at low‐ to mid‐elevations in the tropics. Potential evaporation tends to decrease with elevation in all climate zones. At the land surface, topography is expressed in snow distribution, vegetation zonation, geomorphic landforms, the critical zone, and drainage networks. Evaporation and vegetation activity are often highest at low‐ to mid‐elevations where neither temperature, nor energy availability, nor water availability—often modulated by lateral moisture redistribution—impose strong limitations. Below the land surface, topography drives the movement of groundwater from local to continental scales. In many steep upland regions, groundwater systems are well connected to streams and provide ample baseflow, and streams often start losing water in foothills where bedrock transitions into highly permeable sediment. We conclude by presenting organizing principles, discussing the implications of climate change and human activity, and identifying data needs and knowledge gaps. A defining feature resulting from topography is the presence of gradients and contrasts, whose interactions explain many of the patterns we observe in nature and how they might change in the future.

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A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

November 2023

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469 Reads

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62 Citations

Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.



Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States

August 2023

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45 Reads

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12 Citations

Science Advances

Knowledge of excess deaths after tropical cyclones is critical to understanding their impacts, directly relevant to policies on preparedness and mitigation. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to 40.7 million U.S. deaths and a comprehensive record of 179 tropical cyclones over 32 years (1988-2019) to estimate short-term all-cause excess deaths. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with 1491 [95% credible interval (CrI): 563, 3206] excess deaths (>99% posterior probability of excess deaths), including 719 [95% CrI: 685, 752] in Orleans Parish, LA (>99% probability). Where posterior probabilities of excess deaths were >95%, there were 3112 [95% CrI: 2451, 3699] total post-hurricane force excess deaths and 15,590 [95% CrI: 12,084, 18,835] post-gale to violent storm force deaths; 83.1% of post-hurricane force and 70.0% of post-gale to violent storm force excess deaths occurred more recently (2004-2019); and 6.2% were in least socially vulnerable counties.


Humidity's Role in Heat-Related Health Outcomes: A Heated Debate

May 2023

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142 Reads

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99 Citations

Environmental Health Perspectives

Background: As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, temperature and humidity will increase further, causing potentially dire increases in human heat stress. On physiological and biophysical grounds, exposure to higher levels of humidity should worsen heat stress by decreasing sweat evaporation. However, population-scale epidemiological studies of heat exposure and response often do not detect associations between high levels of humidity and heat-related mortality or morbidity. These divergent, disciplinary views regarding the role of humidity in heat-related health risks limit confidence in selecting which interventions are effective in reducing health impacts and in projecting future heat-related health risks. Objectives: Via our multidisciplinary perspective we seek to a) reconcile the competing realities concerning the role of humidity in heat-related health impacts and b) help ensure robust projections of heat-related health risks with climate change. These objectives are critical pathways to identify and communicate effective approaches to cope with present and future heat challenges. Discussion: We hypothesize six key reasons epidemiological studies have found little impact of humidity on heat-health outcomes: a) At high temperatures, there may be limited influence of humidity on the health conditions that cause most heat-related deaths (i.e., cardiovascular collapse); b) epidemiological data sets have limited spatial extent, a bias toward extratropical (i.e., cooler and less humid), high-income nations, and tend to exist in places where temporal variations in temperature and humidity are positively correlated; c) analyses focus on older, vulnerable populations with sweating, and thus evaporative, impairments that may be further aggravated by dehydration; d) extremely high levels of temperature and humidity (seldom seen in the historical record) are necessary for humidity to substantially impact heat strain of sedentary individuals; e) relationships between temperature and humidity are improperly considered when interpreting epidemiological model results; and f) sub-daily meteorological phenomena, such as rain, occur at high temperatures and humidity, and may bias epidemiological studies based on daily data. Future research must robustly test these hypotheses to advance methods for more accurate incorporation of humidity in estimating heat-related health outcomes under present and projected future climates. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11807.


Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study

March 2023

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187 Reads

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15 Citations

Weather, Climate, and Society

The authors describe a tropical cyclone risk model for the Philippines using open-source methods that can be straightforwardly generalized to other countries. Wind fields derived from historical observations, as well as those from an environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model, are combined with data representing exposed value and vulnerability to determine asset losses. Exposed value is represented by the LitPop dataset, which assumes total asset value is distributed across a country following population density and night-lights data. Vulnerability is assumed to follow a functional form previously proposed by Emanuel, with free parameters chosen by a sensitivity analysis in which simulated and historical reported damages are compared for different parameter values and further constrained by information from household surveys about regional building characteristics. Use of different vulnerability parameters for the region around Manila, Philippines, yields much better agreement between simulated and actually reported losses than does a single set of parameters for the entire country. Despite the improvements from regionally refined vulnerability, the model predicts no losses for a substantial number of destructive historical storms, a difference the authors hypothesize is due to the use of wind speed as the sole metric of tropical cyclone hazard, omitting explicit representation of storm surge and/or rainfall. Bearing these limitations in mind, this model can be used to estimate return levels for tropical cyclone–caused wind hazards and asset losses for regions across the Philippines, relevant to some disaster risk reduction and management tasks; this model also provides a platform for further development of open-source tropical cyclone risk modeling. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones are devastating disasters for which the Philippines is particularly at risk. Here we develop a model for tropical cyclone risk, quantified as property losses, over the Philippines and demonstrate its effectiveness by comparing to historical damages. We find that capturing the difference in vulnerability between the largest city in the Philippines (Manila) and more rural areas is important to accurately represent this risk. Using this model, we can more accurately constrain the risk of very extreme tropical cyclone events in the Philippines. The model can also be straightforwardly adapted for emergency planning in other countries and for climate change scenarios using openly available information.


Fig. 11.2 Comparison of damage functions (a) Example Hazus loss curves from FEMA (2012). Curves shown are for a Single Family Residential Home (One Story, Gable Roof, 6d Roof Sheathing Nails, Shingle Roof Cover, Wood Frame Walls, Toe-nailed roof/wall connections, no garage); Z o values represent different levels of surface roughness, where Z 0 varies between open terrain (0.03 m) to treed terrain (1.0 m) (b) Emanuel (2011) damage function fitted to V half and V thresh values shown in Hazus curves at left; 1-4 line types in the legend correspond to the 1st to 4th Z o values in the left panel
Fig. 11.3 Example flood/storm surge damage function Flood inundation depth loss curves for a residential bungalow type building provided in the MultiColored Manual (MCM; Penning-Rowsell et al. 2005) and used in Aerts et al. (2013) in determining TC storm surge impacts. High, medium, and low curves represent different possible levels of damage. Note that the MCM provides loss curves for many other building types as well, and this is just one
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability: A Review of Different Open-Source Approaches

September 2022

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288 Reads

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6 Citations

Tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessments are critical for disaster preparedness and response. Alongside hazard and exposure, accurate TC risk assessment requires understanding the vulnerability of populations and assets. In this chapter, we examine multiple methods that have been used to assess and quantify TC vulnerability with a focus on open-source methods. We separately discuss structural, economic, and social (or demographic) vulnerability approaches. Structural vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of buildings to be affected by their exposure to hazards; in this section, we provide a detailed overview of how FEMA’s Hazus model quantifies damages by utilizing engineering principles. Economic vulnerability employs regression analysis to relate wind speeds to damages; this discussion explores typical functional forms used to represent vulnerability in such analysis and efforts to constrain parameters in these functions. Finally, social approaches use demographic data to characterize the varying susceptibility of populations to TC risk; we provide some representative examples of this methodology. We conclude with a comparative discussion of these three classes of methods, suggest directions for future work, and ask whether the different approaches can be combined to yield a more holistic view of both the human and structural aspects of TC vulnerability.


Increasing health risks during outdoor sports due to climate change in Texas: Projections vs. attitudes

August 2022

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145 Reads

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9 Citations

Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high‐school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid‐to‐late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat‐related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.



Citations (15)


... Core body temperatures exceeding 43°C are considered a hard limit to survivability because heat stroke mortality exceeds 99.9%. 3 Adaptability is strongly influenced by air temperature and humidity. Sherwood and Huber were the first climate scientists to introduce an adaptability limit of 35°C for 6 hours of exposure based on wet bulb temperature, a measure of thermal comfort that incorporates both air temperature and humidity. ...

Reference:

Exceeding the limits of paediatric heat stress tolerance: the risk of losing a generation to climate inaction
A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

... 14 Our finding of a statistically insignificant effect of cyclone exposure on attrition due to death contrasts with previous evidence of a substantial impact of cyclones on mortality both globally (Huang et al. 2023) and in the US (Parks et al. 2022(Parks et al. , 2023Young and Hsiang, 2024). These discrepancies may be attributed to differences in data, empirical models, and research contexts. ...

Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States
  • Citing Article
  • August 2023

Science Advances

... Heat stress in humans occurs when the body is unable to maintain its core temperature at 37°C. Exposure to heat stress can lead to cardiovascular strain, heat stroke and under extreme conditions can lead to death (Kjellstrom et al 2009, Ebi et al 2021, Baldwin et al 2023. A future of increasing global warming means that Brazil will expect to see increases of heat stress risk and many of the population will be exposed to levels that will considerably impact their health and ability to work and may lead to occupational accidents (Maia et al 2015, Bitencourt 2018, Bitencourt et al 2021and Ferrari et al 2023. ...

Humidity's Role in Heat-Related Health Outcomes: A Heated Debate

Environmental Health Perspectives

... In various instances in the literature where the aforementioned risk formulas have been employed, only one type of hazard is typically considered. For example, tropical cyclone risk assessments focus on wind speeds while often neglecting concurrent storm surge, rainfall-induced flooding, and landslides (Ward et al., 2020;Eberenz et al., 2021;Do and Kuleshov, 2023;Baldwin et al., 2023); earthquake analyses emphasize ground shaking while overlooking potential earthquake-triggered landslides and tsunamis; flood studies concentrate on inundation while omitting associated river-bank erosion and debris flow; and volcanic hazard assessments consider ash fall while sometimes neglecting concurrent lahars, pyroclastic flows, and toxic gases. While methodologically robust for individual phenomena, this hazard-specific approach may significantly underestimate the total risk by overlooking the compound effects of interacting hazards. ...

Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study
  • Citing Article
  • March 2023

Weather, Climate, and Society

... India's vulnerability to these events along its eastern coastline is most pronounced during the monsoon season, especially during the southwest monsoon spanning from June to September and northeast monsoon occurring from October to December [18]. The Bay of Bengal witnesses the formation of about 12-14 cyclones each year, with 5-6 intensifying into full-blown tropical cyclones [19,20]. These cyclones have often made landfall in the coastal regions of Odisha, causing widespread damage and loss of life [2,13]. ...

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability: A Review of Different Open-Source Approaches

... In order to obtain external validity, the survey was conducted nationwide and included the 10 largest outdoor sports associations in Germany. In doing so, we followed the definition of Dee et al., 18 according to which outdoor sports are considered outdoor sports if the competitions usually take place outdoors. According to the official membership statistics of the umbrella organization German Olympic Sports Confederation (DOSB), these were the German Football Association (DFB), the German Tennis Association (DTB), the German Alpine Association (DAV), the German Athletics Association (DLV), the German Equestrian Federation (FN), the German Golf Association (DGV), the German Life Saving Association (DLRG), the German Ski Association (DSV), the German Sailing Association (DSV) and the German Cycling Federation (BDR). ...

Increasing health risks during outdoor sports due to climate change in Texas: Projections vs. attitudes

... Previous studies have shown that the CESM model ensemble reproduces the overall precipitation variability in Central America and the Caribbean in both modern and paleoclimate timescales 10,64,87 . However, biases in the estimate of magnitude and rate of seasonal rainfall changes were noticed, particularly for the early-wet season (May-June), possibly related to the low spatial resolution of the models that lack of reliably capture the complex regional topography and divergence in modeling regional SST variations [88][89][90] . Although the iTRACE model ensemble only simulates the last deglaciation (20-11 kyr BP), it provides a direct means for testing regional climate dynamics during abrupt millennial-scale dry intervals such as Heinrich stadial 1 (HS1) and Younger Dryas (YD). ...

Outsize Influence of Central American Orography on Global Climate

... Extreme heat due to climate change poses a significant threat to physiological thermoregulation and could trigger a variety of acute and chronic health conditions, particularly for workers who lack protection from the heat 1 . In addition to the short-term risks of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, recent studies have linked heat exposure to several morbidities 1-4 including cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney diseases 1,[5][6][7] . The onset of chronic kidney disease caused by dehydration due to heat stress episodes is rapidly growing, particularly in physically demanding occupations, sports, and daily activities 8,9 . ...

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications

Annual Review of Public Health

... Model topography is only an approximation of real topography and contains unavoidable errors. The impact of model topography error is substantial for weather and global climate simulation (Elvidge et al., 2019;and Baldwin et al., 2021). There are four main causes leading to uncertainty in model terrain: measurement error of real topography (different topography data source), different treatment of a model's vertical coordinate (e.g., the step mountain in eta coordinate of Mesinger et al., 1988 and interpolation and smoothing from real topography to model topography. ...

Outsize Influence of Central American Orography on Global Climate
  • Citing Preprint
  • December 2020

... Impact relevant heatwave definitions might include thresholds that determine extreme heat and/or a different minimum event length (e.g. Tong et al 2014, Wang et al 2015, Hanna et al 2016, Jegasothy et al 2017, Ebi et al 2021 or consider humidity and the physiological response to its combined effect with heat (Vanos et al 2020. As outlined in section 2, we consider a heatwave definition where the 3-day maximum temperature is above the 95th percentile. ...

Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate