Jan-Emmanuel De Neve’s research while affiliated with University of Oxford and other places

Subjective wellbeing data are increasingly used across the social sciences. Yet, despite the widespread use of such data, the predictive power of approaches commonly used to model wellbeing is only limited. In response, we here use tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide a better understanding of respondents’ self-reported wellbeing. We analyse representative samples of more than one million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States, using data from 2010 to 2018. We make three contributions. First, we show that ML algorithms can indeed yield better predictive performance than standard approaches, and establish an upper bound on the predictability of wellbeing scores with survey data. Second, we use ML to identify the key drivers of evaluative wellbeing. We show that the variables emphasised in the earlier intuition- and theory-based literature also appear in ML analyses. Third, we illustrate how ML can be used to make a judgement about functional forms, including the existence of satiation points in the effects of income and the U-shaped relationship between age and wellbeing.

There is a positive association between the level of economic development and national levels of overall life satisfaction (OLS) in the adult population, with decreasing marginal returns. However, research shows no association in early adolescence and a negative association in middle adolescence. We hypothesize that this is due to the exclusion of low-income countries, where adolescent wellbeing is rarely collected. 2015–2019 Gallup World Poll data from 139 countries in middle adolescence (age 15–17; n 36,907) were analysed using linear regression to study the association between country levels of economic development and OLS, positive emotions (PE), and negative emotions (NE), and how this varies across economic development levels, and gender. Variations across economic development levels were compared with those observed in the adult population. Log per-capita GDP is positively associated with OLS and PE, although in high-income countries no association is observed for PE, and among females for OLS. For NE, a negative association is observed in lower-income countries and a positive association in higher-income countries. In this age group (age 15–17), the log per-capita GDP – OLS association is stronger in lower-income countries than in higher-income countries, but this pattern reverses with age in adulthood. A nuanced relationship exists between economic development and adolescent wellbeing, which varies across measures, levels of economic development, gender, and age -including notable differences compared to adults. Our study highlights the need for improving child and adolescent wellbeing data worldwide, especially in lower-income countries, to better understand how best to support wellbeing globally.

To combat the public health crisis of Covid-19, governments and public health officials have been asking individuals to substantially change their behaviours for prolonged periods of time. Are happier people more willing to comply with such measures? Using independent, large-scale surveys covering about 79,000 adult respondents across 29 countries, including longitudinal data from the UK, we find that life satisfaction predicts compliance with preventive health behaviours during Covid-19 lockdowns, especially the number of weekdays stood at home (β = 0.02, p < 0.01). The association is stronger for higher levels of life satisfaction (e.g. β = 0.19, p < 0.01, 7 on a 0-to-10 scale). Lower life satisfaction, on the contrary, predicts lower compliance (e.g. β = 0.02, p > 0.10, 2 on a 0-to-10 scale). We explore risk-avoidance and pro-social motivations for this relationship, and find suggestive evidence that people who are older or have certain medical preconditions seem to be behave in line with risk-avoidance, whereas motivations of people who are less at risk of Covid-19 seem more mixed. While it is difficult to estimate the relationship between life satisfaction and compliance behaviour due to potential confounders and unobserved heterogeneity, our findings suggest that life satisfaction is important, both for complying with preventive health measures and as a policy end in itself.

What produces a happy society and a happy life? Thanks to the new science of wellbeing, we can now answer this question using state-of-the-art empirical evidence. This transforms our ability to base our decisions on the outcomes that matter most, namely the wellbeing of us all including future generations. Written by two of the world's leading experts on the economics of wellbeing, this book shows how wellbeing can be measured, what causes it and how it can be improved. Its findings are profoundly relevant to all social sciences, including psychology, economics, politics, behavioural science and sociology. A field-defining text on a new science that aims to span the whole of human life, this will be an invaluable resource for undergraduate and graduate students, policy-makers and employers, who can apply its insights in their professional and private lives. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

This paper provides evidence from a natural experiment on the relationship between positive affect and productivity. We link highly detailed administrative data on the behaviors and performance of all telesales workers at a large telecommunications company with survey reports of employee happiness that we collected on a weekly basis. We use variation in worker mood arising from visual exposure to weather—the interaction between call center architecture and outdoor weather conditions—to provide a quasi-experimental test of the effect of happiness on productivity. We find evidence of a positive impact on sales performance, which is driven by changes in labor productivity—largely through workers converting more calls into sales and to a lesser extent by making more calls per hour and adhering more closely to their schedule. We find no evidence in our setting of effects on measures of high-frequency labor supply such as attendance and break-taking. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4766 .

The unemployed are generally significantly and substantially less satisfied with their lives than the employed. This relationship tends to be stronger in high-income countries where there are sharper differences between employment and unemployment. In studies that look at within-person changes over time, unemployment typically reduces wellbeing by at least 0.6 points (out of 10). Studying plant closures allows researchers to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous effects of unemployment. Workers who lose their jobs due to reasons outside of their control are generally more dissatisfied, although the effect of job loss remains negative and statistically significant for both groups. The negative wellbeing impacts of unemployment can also spillover onto the general population – and this cause more total loss of wellbeing than the direct effect on the unemployed. Longer periods of unemployment can have scarring effects with long-lasting negative implications for wellbeing even after those affected have returned to work. The psychosocial effects of unemployment on wellbeing are greater than the effect of lost income. Policy approaches targeting unemployment are therefore likely to be most conducive to wellbeing if they are able to protect and provide for the psychological and social benefits of work, as opposed to simply providing income support.

The way our parents behave affects our wellbeing. Affection and firm boundaries have positive effects on our wellbeing. However, individual resilience plays a role too - many children survive severe abuse without major changes to their wellbeing. The mental health of parents (and especially mothers) has a significant impact on the wellbeing of their children. Meanwhile, schools have more effect on children’s wellbeing than is usually appreciated, and so do individual teachers. If schools wish to improve child wellbeing, they will make that a major goal of the school, and will measure it regularly. Life skills will also be taught at least weekly using evidence-based materials. In adulthood, family life is, on average, beneficial to wellbeing. But the quality of relationships often deteriorates after the birth of the first child. This problem can be reduced if both parents take ante-natal classes covering not just childcare but the impact of the child on their own relationship. If, despite this, the mental health of the children or their parents deteriorates, it is vital that professional mental health support is available.

Being exposed to nature (trees, plants and green space) has demonstrable positive effects on our physical health, our behaviour (including crime) and our wellbeing. Quantifying this can improve the design of our lifestyle and our cities. For instance, people with longer commutes experience less wellbeing. However house price differences underestimate the wellbeing effect of green space and other aspects of the environment (like air pollution and noise). The quantity and quality of housing has a relatively small effect on wellbeing. This is partly because people compare their houses with those of their neighbours. But being in arrears on your mortgage of rent has a really negative effect. Climate change is a classic public good problem, since CO2 emitted anywhere affects people living everywhere. Every country has an incentive to free ride on the costs incurred by others. Only international agreement can overcome this problem. Climate change is also a clear threat to the wellbeing of future generations. The wellbeing approach invites us to value the wellbeing of future generations as much as we value our own (subject only to a very small discount rate).

What produces a happy society and a happy life? Thanks to the new science of wellbeing, we can now answer this question using state-of-the-art empirical evidence. This transforms our ability to base our decisions on the outcomes that matter most, namely the wellbeing of us all including future generations. Written by two of the world's leading experts on the economics of wellbeing, this book shows how wellbeing can be measured, what causes it and how it can be improved. Its findings are profoundly relevant to all social sciences, including psychology, economics, politics, behavioural science and sociology. A field-defining text on a new science that aims to span the whole of human life, this will be an invaluable resource for undergraduate and graduate students, policy-makers and employers, who can apply its insights in their professional and private lives. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.