Jalal Sadeghi’s research while affiliated with Islamic Azad University Sanandaj Branch and other places

Purpose To reduce financial and human losses, managing risks associated with earthquakes is essential in practice. However, in using common risk management methods, experts are often faced with ambiguities that can create profound challenges for risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a logical and straightforward risk assessment model to provide scientific and accurate answers to complex problems. This study aims to recommend an innovative combined method based on the probability-impact (P-I) approach and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory to identify and prioritize the essential earthquake risks associated with worn-out urban fabrics in the context of Iran. Design/methodology/approach The opinions of 15 experts in the fields of civil engineering and urban construction were gathered during brainstorming sessions. These brainstorming sessions were conducted to determine the probability of risks and the effect of identified risks. After calculating the severity of risks using the P-I approach and converting them to intuitionistic fuzzy sets, the risks were measured and prioritized based on their individual scores. Findings The study results indicated that risk of damage due to buildings’ age and flooding risk had the highest and lowest priorities in causes of financial damage, respectively. Furthermore, the risk of damage due to building quality (demolition) and building age was the most important. The risk of flooding and damage to communication networks has the lowest importance among causes of fatalities in worn-out urban fabrics. Originality/value The study findings and recommendations can be served as a policy and consultative instrument for the relevant stakeholders in the area of urban management.

Earthquake is a random natural phenomenon, which can occur at any time and location in a given seismic zone with any magnitude. The earthquake vulnerability in buildings and urban infrastructures is a key issue for crisis management. Therefore, an assessment model should be developed to identify and prioritize the significant seismic risks involved. In risk management, several numerical and descriptive phrases are used for risk identification and assessment. These phrases are estimative by nature and the accuracy of the estimations is vital in future decision-making in risk management. Fuzzy sets are a reliable tool in solving such problems and result in high level of accuracy through creating multiple-value logical models. The purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize the major risks associated with earthquakes in urban worn-out textures through the Delphi survey technique and fuzzy sets approach. The experts' opinions were collected using a fuzzy Delphi questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale of measurement method. Participants in the Delphi panel consist of 15 experts in the field of engineering. Important risks were determined and prioritized in the two phases of fuzzy Delphi method. According to the results, among the 19 identified major risks, road blockage and flood with defuzzification values of 0.917 and 0.583, respectively, have the highest and lowest risk potential respectively in Jalili Neighborhood's worn-out textures. It is expected that, because of the simplicity and the high accuracy for identification of the most vulnerable parts, this study provides scientific and useful guidance to urban managers and planners in decision-making and adopting the most appropriate strategies for mitigating damages and potential risks of earthquakes in urban worn-out textures.