J.E. Campbell’s scientific contributions

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Publications (1)


Polls and votes: the trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns
  • Article

January 2000

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28 Citations

J.E. Campbell

Citations (1)


... Polls may differ from the election results for many reasons, including random variation, errors due to non-response or misidentification of likely voters, pollster herding, and the presence of late deciders [65, 72-74, 76, 83]. Moreover, polls are conducted by polling organizations (or "polling houses") of differing quality, and their individual methodologies can lead to "house effects", tendencies to consistently lean Republican or Democratic [45,54,62,73,82,92]. Poll accuracy also depends on the time to Election Day, and there are differences in the magnitude of errors in polls of presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections [38,83]. Looking across cycles, as we show in Fig. 2, the number of polls and distribution of poll errors has changed over the last twenty years, and the state-level polls have collectively leaned Democratic since 2014. ...

Reference:

How time and pollster history affect U.S. election forecasts under a compartmental modeling approach
Polls and votes: the trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns
  • Citing Article
  • January 2000