January 2000
·
5 Reads
·
28 Citations
This page lists works of an author who doesn't have a ResearchGate profile or hasn't added the works to their profile yet. It is automatically generated from public (personal) data to further our legitimate goal of comprehensive and accurate scientific recordkeeping. If you are this author and want this page removed, please let us know.
January 2000
·
5 Reads
·
28 Citations
... Polls may differ from the election results for many reasons, including random variation, errors due to non-response or misidentification of likely voters, pollster herding, and the presence of late deciders [65, 72-74, 76, 83]. Moreover, polls are conducted by polling organizations (or "polling houses") of differing quality, and their individual methodologies can lead to "house effects", tendencies to consistently lean Republican or Democratic [45,54,62,73,82,92]. Poll accuracy also depends on the time to Election Day, and there are differences in the magnitude of errors in polls of presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections [38,83]. Looking across cycles, as we show in Fig. 2, the number of polls and distribution of poll errors has changed over the last twenty years, and the state-level polls have collectively leaned Democratic since 2014. ...
January 2000