J. Harrison’s scientific contributions

... First, forecasters can observe the present state of the world more accurately by updating their initial observations based on the greater quantity and higher quality of signals created by causal mechanisms and stochastic processes over time (Atanasov et al., 2020;Kapoor & Wilde, 2023). Second, forecasters can infer the relevant causal mechanisms operating in the world more accurately by evaluating the conceived causal mechanisms in light of the quantity and quality of signals in a Bayesian manner (Harrison & Stevens, 1976;West & Harrison, 2006). As forecasters' predictive accuracy depends partly on the accurate observation of the present state of the world and partly on their accurate knowledge of the relevant causal mechanisms operating on the present state of the world, it becomes easier to forecast future states of the world accurately over time. ...

Reference:

Individual foresight: Concept, operationalization, and correlates