Italo Colantone’s research while affiliated with Bocconi University and other places

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Publications (52)


Global value chains and the design of trade agreements
  • Article
  • Publisher preview available

February 2025

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30 Reads

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1 Citation

The Review of International Organizations

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Italo Colantone

We explore the role of global value chains (GVCs) in the design of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). We propose a theory that focuses on firms involved in GVC activities to identify the main actors pushing for deep trade integration. To address the critical issue of endogeneity of GVC trade flows for trade policy, our identification strategy exploits a transportation shock: the sharp increase in the maximum size of container ships, which more than quadrupled between 1995 and 2017. The key variation in our instrument hinges on the fact that only deep-water ports can accommodate these new larger ships. Armed with this instrument, we find that GVC trade increases the probability of forming deep PTAs that include provisions regulating both trade-related policies and domestic regulatory regimes. GVC trade is a driver of deep preferential trade liberalization.

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In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-treatment Bias

October 2024

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31 Reads

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1 Citation

Comparative Political Studies

We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash. We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic versus cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-treatment with respect to economic factors, the estimates of the effect of economic shocks on voting are biased in regressions that include cultural controls (and vice versa); (2) for the same reason, such horse-race regressions do not allow to accurately estimate the relative role of economic versus cultural factors; (3) one cannot infer mediation effects from changes in regression coefficients for a given factor of interest before and after including post-treatment controls. We accompany the methodological discussion with empirical evidence on the relevance of post-treatment bias in studies of the globalization backlash, both by replicating and expanding on earlier studies, and by presenting novel cross-country results on the culture-economy nexus.


A Popular Backlash against Globalization?

June 2024

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6 Reads

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1 Citation

Critical Sociology

Is there a popular backlash against globalization? When did it start and in which forms? What do we know about its causes? We address these questions in the context of advanced democracies. We see the ‘globalization backlash’ as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. We discuss the empirical evidence on the backlash. We develop a theoretical discussion within the framework of the crisis of embedded liberalism. We nest within this framework theoretical results from international economics showing how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when considering the ‘social footprint’ of globalization. These theoretical insights are consistent with available empirical evidence pointing to the role of globalization as a driver of the backlash. Yet, globalization is only one of the drivers of the backlash. There are other economic factors playing a similar role, such as technological change, fiscal austerity, and immigration. Moreover, cultural concerns such as status threat, authoritarianism, and nativism do play a relevant role, with a significant interplay with economic drivers. This calls for a broad and comprehensive approach to the backlash, both from an academic and from a policy making perspective.







The social footprint of globalisation: towards the introduction of strategic industries in quantitative trade models

December 2023

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8 Reads

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1 Citation


Citations (35)


... Although some scholarship links economic decline to populism (Marcos-Marne et al. 2023), others argue that perceived economic trends and fears of decline are more influential than personal material economic conditions (Emmenegger et al. 2012). Additionally, some suggest that broader perceptions of societal well-being, rather than personal economic situation, drive populist support, though evidence for this remains inconclusive (Colantone, Ottaviano, and Stanig 2024;Dancygier et al. 2024). ...

Reference:

Rural Populism and Tolerance for Political Violence
A Popular Backlash against Globalization?
  • Citing Article
  • June 2024

Critical Sociology

... The study makes three important contributions to the literature. First, our findings inform the scholarly debate over which factors drive far-right support in the aftermath of an economic shock (Agnolin, Colantone, and Stanig 2024;Margalit 2019a;Mutz 2018;Rodrik 2021). Our results suggest that shocks do not occur in isolation, but are important collective experiences and interact with preexisting community conditions (Margalit 2019b;Rettl 2022). ...

In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-treatment Bias
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

Comparative Political Studies

... Analysing the economic aspects of anti-globalist rhetoric, it is worth paying attention to research by I. Colantone et al. (2021), who consider the phenomenon of "rollback" against globalisation. Their conclusions about the relationship between the economic consequences of globalisation and the growing support for populist parties correlate with the results of the analysis. ...

A Popular Backlash Against Globalization?
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Compared with sociodemographic variables, internal or cognitive factors frequently offer more direct insight into the public's attitude and WTP for MSW management. Existing literature indicates that individuals who exhibit a higher degree of environmental concern, stronger personal responsibility, and specialized knowledge regarding waste sorting or resource recovery are more inclined to bear the costs associated with MSW governance measures [29,30]. Moreover, trust in governmental institutions or managing authorities has been identified as a critical prerequisite for raising WTP [31], suggesting that public confidence in the competence and transparency of local agencies significantly boosts their willingness to financially support novel or expanded waste management initiatives. ...

The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy

American Political Science Association

... So könnte ein Unternehmen in der Schwerindustrie seine Standortentscheidung für einen umweltbelastenden Produktionsstandort auf der Grundlage treffen, dass ein geringerer Widerstand zu erwarten ist, oder sich sogar das Narrativ "Arbeitsplätze gegen Umweltverschmutzung" zunutze machen. Umweltungerechtigkeit entsteht demnach, indem Industrien oder umweltschädliche Einrichtungen oft auf dem "Weg des geringsten Widerstands" in strukturschwachen oder benachteiligten Gemeinschaften platziert werden (Bez et al. 2023). ...

Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes

Nature Climate Change

... European institutions are aware of a growing detachment among significant population groups from the European project, the market economy, and globalization. This disconnection is explored under the concept of the geography of discontent (Colantone et al., 2022;Dijkstra et al., 2020;Guriev & Papaioannou, 2022;Rodríguez-Pose, 2018 in multilateral institutions such as the WTO will be essential. ...

The backlash of globalization
  • Citing Chapter
  • March 2022

Handbook of International Economics

... The lack of widespread public support presents a formidable obstacle (Fremstad et al., 2022). Research on green taxes underscores that the perceived socioeconomic inequalities resulting from their implementation can render them politically risky for governing parties (Beiser-McGrath & Busemeyer, 2023) and even favour the electoral prospects of the radical right (Colantone et al., 2024;Voeten, 2024). ...

The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The lack of widespread public support presents a formidable obstacle (Fremstad et al. 2022). Research on green taxes underscores that the perceived socioeconomic inequalities resulting from their implementation can render them politically risky for governing parties (Beiser-McGrath and Busemeyer 2023) and even favor the electoral prospects of the radical right (Voeten 2024;Colantone et al. 2023). ...

The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan, and China, social robots have also been used in settings like hospitals, hotels, restaurants, homes, and even churches and temples [6][7][8]. Meanwhile, robot application shows large disparities across countries [7,9,10]. A recent report by IFR indicates that since 2017, China has experienced the fastest growth in industrial robot application in the world, with a staggering 300% increase in robot density per capita, reaching 392 units per 10,000 employees. ...

Individual vulnerability to industrial robot adoption increases support for the radical right
  • Citing Article
  • November 2021

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

... The winners of this process have mostly been high skilled "knowledge workers", whose cognitive occupations complement technology, while losers have been low-and middle-skilled workers whose routine jobs are easier to automate (Im et al., 2019). In particular, the information technology revolution led to a job polarization, implying a decrease in the relative number of routine middle-income jobs and growth in the share of non-routine jobs at the two ends of the income distribution: cognitive, high-income type or the manual, low-income type (Autor, 2014;Frey, Berger and Chen, 2018;Anelli, Colantone and Stanig, 2019). Regarding wages, the former have seen their income diverging from those of the middle-class, which fell closer to the group of low-skilled and low-income workers (Gallego, Kurer and Schöll, 2018). ...

We Were the Robots: Automation and Voting Behavior in Western Europe
  • Citing Article
  • January 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal