Hristos Doucouliagos's research while affiliated with Deakin University and other places

Publications (91)

Article
We assess the impact of mandating data-sharing in economics journals on two dimensions of research credibility: statistical significance and excess statistical significance. Excess statistical significance is a necessary condition for publication selection bias. Quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis of 20,121 estimates published in...
Preprint
Full-text available
Publication selection bias undermines the systematic accumulation of evidence. To assess the extent of this problem, we survey over 26,000 meta-analyses containing more than 800,000 effect size estimates from medicine, economics, and psychology. Our results indicate that meta-analyses in economics are the most severely contaminated by publication s...
Preprint
We analyze the statistical power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles. Even with generous assumptions, the median analysis has about 10% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at least 80% power to detect the consensus effects reported in the literature. There is also substantial hetero...
Article
Full-text available
Publication bias is a ubiquitous threat to the validity of meta‐analysis and the accumulation of scientific evidence. In order to estimate and counteract the impact of publication bias, multiple methods have been developed; however, recent simulation studies have shown the methods' performance to depend on the true data generating process, and no m...
Article
We introduce a new meta-analysis estimator, the weighted and iterated least squares (WILS), that greatly reduces publication selection bias (PSB) when selective reporting for statistical significance (SSS) is present. WILS is the simple weighted average that has smaller bias and rates of false positives than conventional meta-analysis estimators, t...
Article
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Recent, high-profile, large-scale, preregistered failures to replicate uncover that many highly-regarded experiments are ‘false positives;’ that is, statistically significant results of underlying null effects. Large surveys of research reveal that statistical power is often low and inadequate. When the research record includes selective reporting,...
Article
We investigate whether the allocation of US aid is influenced by a recipient's democracy and human rights record. The analysis is done in two ways. First, a comprehensive meta-analysis of 284 estimates from 58 studies. Studies report a wide range of results, but the meta-analysis concludes that both human rights and democracy are clear motives for...
Article
Full-text available
We introduce and evaluate three tests for publication selection bias based on excess statistical significance. The proposed tests incorporate heterogeneity explicitly in the formulas for expected and excess statistical significance. We calculate the expected proportion of statistically significant findings in the absence of selective reporting or p...
Preprint
Publication bias is a ubiquitous threat to the validity of meta-analysis and the accumulation of scientific evidence. In order to estimate and counteract the impact of publication bias, multiple methods have been developed; however, recent simulation studies have shown the methods’ performance to depend on the true data generating process – no meth...
Article
We collect data on the careers of 189 authors who published aid effectiveness estimates during the 1970 to 2011 period, and apply meta-regression analysis to investigate the impact of authors' careers on the degree of selectivity in which results are reported. Among non-tenured researchers, publication selection bias and research inflation are incr...
Article
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We consider the effects of terrorism in a home nation and in its neighbors on the home nation's imports. We find that a 10% increase in terrorist attacks in a neighboring nation reduces a country's imports from the rest of the world by approximately $320 million USD, on average. Mediation analysis shows that trading delays is a potential channel of...
Article
As a source of income, remittances can be spent on consumption and investment. The aim of this study is to quantify the effect of remittances on investment in education: Do remittances increase household education expenditure? To answer this question we apply meta-regression analysis to 1343 estimates of this effect drawn from 73 studies, covering...
Article
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Meta‐analysis has become the conventional approach to synthesizing the results of empirical economics research. To further improve the transparency and replicability of the reported results and to raise the quality of meta‐analyses, the Meta‐Analysis of Economics Research Network has updated the reporting guidelines that were published by this Jour...
Article
Full-text available
This paper explores the relationship between directors' pay and performance within Australian banking, using panel data for the 1992-2005 period. The relationship between CEO pay and performance is investigated also. Several earnings models are estimated, using different dependent variables, alternate measures of performance and different estimatio...
Article
In this article, we re‐examine the relationship between group‐based profit sharing and productivity. Our meta‐regression analysis of 355 estimates from 56 studies controls for publication selection and misspecification biases and investigates the impact of firm‐level unionisation. Profit sharing is positively related to productivity on average, wit...
Article
Do institutions and culture affect environmental values? In this article we analyze 1041 environmental valuations of 223 wetlands in 38 developing countries, to examine the effect of institutions and culture on environmental values. We assess three dimensions of institutional quality: economic freedom, democracy, and good governance. We also consid...
Article
Can recent failures to replicate psychological research be explained by typical magnitudes of statistical power, bias or heterogeneity? A large survey of 12,065 estimated effect sizes from 200 meta-analyses and nearly 8,000 papers is used to assess these key dimensions of replicability. First, our survey finds that psychological research is, on ave...
Article
Despite phenomenal technological progress and exponential growth in computing power, economic growth remains comparative sluggish. In this paper, we investigate two core issues: (1) is there really no connection between ICT and national economic growth? and (2) what factors moderate the ICT–growth relationship? We apply meta‐regression analysis to...
Article
Good public policy needs to be evidence based. However, the evidence base is thin for many policy issues. How can policy makers best respond to such thin areas of research that are also quite likely to change over time? Our survey investigates the evolution of the econometric evidence base for 101 economic issues, drawing upon 42,578 effect sizes (...
Article
This article is the second in a series to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the ILR Review. The series features articles that analyze the state of research and future directions for important themes this journal has featured over many years of publication. In this article, the authors assess the credibility of research that has tested the theoretic...
Article
Inequality's effect on growth remains elusive, largely due to endogeneity, complex interactions, and lead–lag relationships. We revisit this issue by examining the four main channels through which inequality transmits to growth: savings, investment, education, and knowledge production. We construct new panel data for 21 OECD countries spanning 142...
Article
We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The medi...
Book
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Richard B. Freeman and James L. Medoff’s now classic 1984 book What Do Unions Do? stimulated an enormous theoretical and empirical literature on the economicimpact of trade unions. Trade unions continue to be a significant feature of many labormarkets, particularly in developing countries, and issues of labor market regulationsand labor institution...
Article
We investigate the consequences of income inequality on the income tax-to-GDP ratio for 21 OECD countries over a long time period spanning 1870 to 2011. We use several identification strategies, including using unionization as a new IV for inequality. In contrast to predictions from median voter models, we find that rising inequality significantly...
Article
While numerous studies assess the impact of healthcare spending on health outcomes, typically reporting multiple estimates of the elasticity of health outcomes (most often measured by a mortality rate or life expectancy) with respect to healthcare spending, the extent to which study attributes influence these elasticity estimates is unclear. Accord...
Article
The central purpose of this study is to document how a sharper focus upon statistical power may reduce the impact of selective reporting bias in meta-analyses. We introduce the weighted average of the adequately powered (WAAP) as an alternative to the conventional random-effects (RE) estimator. When the results of some of the studies have been sele...
Article
Our study revisits and challenges two core conventional meta-regression estimators: the prevalent use of 'mixed-effects' or random-effects meta-regression analysis and the correction of standard errors that defines fixed-effects meta-regression analysis (FE-MRA). We show how and explain why an unrestricted weighted least squares MRA (WLS-MRA) estim...
Article
This paper presents the first comprehensive synthesis of economic valuations of wetlands in developing countries. Meta-regression analysis (MRA) is applied to 1432 estimates of the economic value of 379 distinct wetlands from 50 countries. We find that wetlands are a normal good, wetland size has a negative effect on wetland values, and urban wetla...
Article
We investigate whether development aid stimulates growth in transition economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of spatial spillovers arising from aid. We find that common borders and a shared historical and political heritage result in a complex set of associations between aid and growth. Aid has a positive impact on growth in the...
Article
A growing literature documents the existence of strategic political reactions to public expenditure between rival jurisdictions. These interactions can potentially create a downward expenditure spiral (“race to the bottom”) or a rising expenditure spiral (“race to the top”). However, in the course of identifying the existence of such interactions a...
Article
Full-text available
FDI is seen widely as a vital source of investment, technology transfer, and growth. The factors that attract FDI have been a longstanding source of debate. The authors present a comprehensive assessment of the accumulated evidence on one factor, the success of economic growth in attracting FDI. Meta-regression analysis is applied to 946 estimates...
Article
Relatively little is known about the determinants of inequality in Southeast Asia. This paper fills this void by comprehensively testing Kuznets' hypothesis for Southeast Asia. We estimate both unconditional and conditional Kuznets' curves using panel data for 8 countries. The analysis suggests the existence of a Kuznets' curve with respect to per...
Article
This study challenges two core conventional meta-analysis methods: fixed effect and random effects. We show how and explain why an unrestricted weighted least squares estimator is superior to conventional random-effects meta-analysis when there is publication (or small-sample) bias and better than a fixed-effect weighted average if there is heterog...
Article
Empirical studies normally analyze diverse and heterogeneous groups of countries, producing very mixed evidence on the effectiveness of development aid in promoting growth. We focus on whether aid promotes economic growth in transitional economies. We find that aid, on average, has had a positive impact on growth for this specific group of countrie...
Article
We investigate whether aid contributed to institutional development in transition economies. We find that aid flows have a positive effect on democratization, especially on constraints on the executive and political participation. At the same time, total aid has no effect on overall quality of governance, while US aid appears to have a negative imp...
Article
This article examines the empirical support for the hypothesized hedonic theoretical relation between the price of wine and its quality. The examination considers over 180 hedonic wine price models developed over 20 years, covering many countries. The research identifies that the relation between the price of wine and its sensory quality rating is...
Article
A sizable empirical literature examines government fiscal interactions. However, the empirical evidence is very mixed. We apply meta-regression analysis to quantify the size of inter-jurisdictional fiscal interactions and to explain the heterogeneity in empirical estimates. Several robust results emerge. While there are significant country differen...
Article
There is much disparity in estimates of the income elasticity of air travel across the literature. We examine this disparity by applying meta-regression techniques. Controlling for several issues, including publication selection bias, while our preferred baseline income elasticity estimate of 1.186 is consistent with air travel being a luxury and a...
Article
This paper analyses patterns in regional inequality within and between Malaysia's 14 states, drawing upon estimates of Kuznets/Williamson curves, σ- and β-convergence and spatial spillovers. The path of regional inequality contradicts Kuznets predictions. Regional inequality initially fell but has subsequently risen with further economic developmen...
Article
Publication selection bias is a serious challenge to the integrity of all empirical sciences. We derive meta-regression approximations to reduce this bias. Our approach employs Taylor polynomial approximations to the conditional mean of a truncated distribution. A quadratic approximation without a linear term, precision-effect estimate with standar...
Article
Market efficiency is an important feature of successful financial markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the available evidence on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Meta-regression analysis is applied to 1,560 estimates of the Variance Ratio test of the efficiency of Asian and Australasian stock markets. We test if there is evidence of v...
Article
This paper reexamines the effects of education on inequality through a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the extant empirical literature. We find that education affects the two tails of the distribution of income: Education reduces the income share of top earners and increases the share of the bottom earners. Education has been particularly...
Article
The paper provides a systematic and quantitative review of the empirical evidence on the effects of development aid on democracy and governance. We find that aid has had, on average, a zero or negative effect on democracy, except that it has had a positive effect on democratization in European transitional economies. Aid had a positive effect on go...
Article
Estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) establish the price government agencies use to value fatality risks. Transferring these valuations to other populations often utilizes the income elasticity of the VSL, which typically draw on estimates from meta-analyses. Using a data set consisting of 101 estimates of the income elasticity of VSL...
Article
The employment effect from raising the minimum wage has long been studied but remains in dispute. Our meta-analysis of 236 estimated minimum wage elasticities and 710 partial correlation coefficients from 16 UK studies finds no overall practically significant adverse employment effect. Unlike US studies, there seems to be little, if any, overall re...
Article
Full-text available
We apply meta-regression analysis to the extant econometric studies and find that unions depress investment in innovation at the firm and industry level in all countries considered. However, this adverse effect has been declining over time and is moderated by country differences in industrial relations and regulations: The adverse effect appears to...
Article
Meta-regression analysis (MRA) can provide objective and comprehensive summaries of economics research. Their use has grown rapidly over the last few decades. To improve transparency and to raise the quality of MRA, the meta-analysis of economics research-network (MAER-Net) has created the below reporting guidelines. Future meta-analyses in economi...
Article
The purpose of this book is to introduce novice researchers to the tools of meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis and to summarize the state of the art for existing practitioners. Meta-regression analysis addresses the rising "Tower of Babel" that current economics and business research has become. Meta-analysis is the statistical analysis of...
Article
This study investigates dynamics and convergence in CEO pay in Australia’s largest corporations over an 18 year period. Utilizing dynamic panel estimators, we find that CEO pay is driven by dynamic adjustments, firm size, board size, CEO tenure and firm performance. The largest pay-performance effect emerges for long-term incentive pay. We also sho...
Article
This note deals with a paradox: A literature growing exponentially even though it keeps finding the same (disappointing) results. We draw upon 1217 estimates of aid effectiveness of which 676 are reported in recent years, to examine three subjects: (S1) Has the literature finally overcome the aid ineffectiveness result? (S2) Increasingly studies tr...
Article
An essential part of empirical economics research is the identification of the size of an empirical effect. Partial correlations offer a convenient statistically based measure of the strength of an economic relationship. A key question arises in their interpretation: When is a partial correlation large? This paper draws upon the observed distributi...
Article
Full-text available
Our study, Doucouliagos and Paldam (2008), has recently been critically discussed by Mekasha and Tarp (2011). In this paper we show that contrary to what they state, their study validates our basic analysis: Both papers confirm that the literature has shown that aid is of little economic importance in generating growth. M&T find some random coding...
Article
Funnel graphs provide a simple, yet highly effective, means to identify key features of an empirical literature. This paper illustrates the use of funnel graphs to detect publication selection bias, identify the existence of genuine empirical effects and discover potential moderator variables that can help to explain the wide variation routinely fo...
Article
Conventional practice is to draw inferences from all available data and research results, even though there is ample evidence to suggest that empirical literatures suffer from publication selection bias. When a scientific literature is plagued by such bias, a simple discarding of the vast majority of empirical results can actually improve statistic...
Article
Directors’ pay and corporate governance continue to generate public outrage and calls for reform. Our meta-regression analysis of all comparable UK pay-for-performance estimates finds little, if any, meaningful association between directors’ pay and corporate performance. However, there is evidence of the effectiveness of past ‘comply-or-explain’ r...
Article
Full-text available
The working papers are a series of manuscripts in their draft form. Please do not quote without obtaining the author's consent as these works are in their draft form.
Article
Abstract The aid effectiveness literature (AEL) consists of empirical macroeconomic estimates of the effects of development aid. By the end of 2004, it comprised 97 econometric studies of three families of related effects. Each family has been analyzed in a separate meta-analysis. The AEL is an ideal subject for meta-analysis as it uses only a few...
Article
Card and Krueger's meta-analysis of the employment effects of minimum wages challenged existing theory. Unfortunately, their meta-analysis confused publication selection with the absence of a genuine empirical effect. We apply recently developed meta-analysis methods to 64 US minimum-wage studies and corroborate that Card and Krueger's findings wer...
Article
One branch of the aid effectiveness literature (AEL) analyzes conditional models where aid effectiveness depends upon a conditioning variable z. The leading candidates for z are a good policy index and aid itself, so that the model has an aid squared term. In this paper, meta-analysis techniques are used (i) to determine whether the AEL has establi...
Article
The aid allocation literature explores the motives behind development aid assistance. This literature is enormous, yet surprisingly, the extant empirical studies have in the main only focused on the motives of established donors. Consequently, relatively little is known of the motives of new donors. This paper explores the aid allocation motives of...
Article
We draw upon the findings of 106 empirical studies, of which 32 are from the last 4 years, to examine whether development aid generates economic growth. The studies report aid effects that have been falling over time. Using meta-regression analysis, we show that total aid has no effect on growth. However, some types of aid might stimulate growth. J...
Article
Full-text available
The effect of unions on profits continues to be an unresolved theoretical and empirical issue. In this paper, clustered data analysis and hierarchical linear meta-regression models are applied to the population of forty-five econometric studies that report 532 estimates of the direct effect of unions on profits. Unions have a significant negative e...
Article
The aid effectiveness literature contains about 100 papers that see aid as a treatment given to poor countries to generate development. 68 of these papers provide a total of 543 comparable estimates of the effect of aid on growth, which are the data of our meta-analysis. We consider two questions: (Q1) Are the estimates converging to a clear result...
Article
Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth. This article challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship through a quantitative assessment of the democracy-growth literature. It applies meta-regression analysis to the population...
Article
Full-text available
This paper explores the relationship between directors' pay and performance within Australian banking, using panel data for the 1992–2005 period. The relationship between CEO pay and performance is investigated also. Several earnings models are estimated, using different dependent variables, alternate measures of performance and different estimatio...
Article
The generation of research is one of the major functions of the university sector. In most disciplines, journal articles continue to be the main outlet for the communication of research findings. However, in Australia, government induced distortions have rewarded refereed conference papers an equal status to refereed journal papers. The aim of this...
Article
In this paper we estimate a Translog output distance function for a balanced panel of state level data for the Australian dairy processing sector. We estimate a fixed effects specification employing Bayesian methods, with and without the imposition of monotonicity and curvature restrictions. Our results indicate that Tasmania and Victoria are the m...
Article
Full-text available
Organizational performance improves through several channels, including changes in efficiency, innovation and technological change. Most of the extant research has focused on overall performance, often measured by partial measures of productivity, with little attention given to the components of performance. The aim of this paper is to analyze the...
Article
Full-text available
The empirical literature explaining the driving forces behind the flows of development aid consists of (at least) 166 studies. One factor that has been analyzed in 30 of these studies is growth in the recipient country. A priori the effect may as well be positive as negative. This is an interesting factor for two reasons: (1) It is relatively easy...
Article
In this paper we examine the impact of membership in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962-2000 we find that membership in a PTA...
Article
The working papers are a series of manuscripts in their draft form. Please do not quote without obtaining the author's consent as these works are in their draft form. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily endorsed by the School.
Article
The AEL (aid effectiveness literature) studies the macroeconomic effects of development aid using cross-country or panel data econometrics. It contains 97 papers of which 43 study whether development aid leads to increasing accumulation. The aggregate results of the 43 studies are that aid increases investment with about 25% of the aid, while most...
Article
Full-text available
A vast and often confusing economics literature relates competition to investment in innovation. Following Joseph Schumpeter, one view is that monopoly and large scale promote investment in research and development by allowing a firm to capture a larger fraction of its benefits and by providing a more stable platform for a firm to invest in R&D. Ot...
Article
Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit the properties consistent with the stylized facts observed in earlie...
Article
Full-text available
The AEL (aid effectiveness literature) studies the effect of development aid using econome¬ trics on macro data. It contains about 100 papers of which a third analyzes conditional models where aid effectiveness depends upon z, so that aid only works for a certain range of the variable. The key term in this family of AEL models is thus an interactio...
Article
The AEL consists of empirical macro studies of the effects of development aid. At the end of 2004 it had reached 97 studies of three families, which we have summarized in one study each using meta-analysis. Studies of the effect on investments show that they rise by 1/3 of the aid – the rest is crowded out by a fall in savings. Studies of the effec...
Article
Full-text available
Resampling methods are used to calculate confidence limits in a meta-analysis of the association between unions and productivity for the population of U.S. studies. The available evidence points to a positive and statistically significant association between unions and productivity in the U.S. manufacturing and education sectors, of around 10% and...
Article
Stock price rallies/declines often terminate at price levels that are interpreted by many as areas of psychological resistance or support, while an alternative interpretation is that they coincide with price clusters. Some of these price levels tend to repeat with a regularity that is inconsistent with mere chance. In this paper, the existence of p...
Article
Research plays an important role in underpinning a country's economic and social life. Universities are at the centre of the research and human capital generating process. The aim of this paper is to explore the links between research output, research income, academic and non-academic labour and some of the characteristics of Australian universitie...
Article
In New Zealand the most important institutions that are responsible for the delivery of vocational education and training programs are the government owned and operated tertiary education institutions known as polytechnics.1 The New Zealand polytechnics deliver programs at the certificate, diploma and degree level. During the course of the 1990s, e...
Article
In this article we analyse trends in the economic performance of the dairy processing industry and evaluate the link between these trends and the deregulation of the industry. Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis to derive Malmquist total factor productivity estimates, we show that the industry exhibits a relatively high level of technical efficiency...
Article
Manufacturing is an important sector to many Australian regional areas. Technical change is important to the economic performance of manufacturing and improvements in competitive advantage. In this paper, technical change in manufacturing is estimated for each of the Australian States using a cointegration framework, for the period 1954-55 to 1995-...
Article
The Australian dairy processing industry is currently undergoing a program of substantial regulatory reform. In this paper we assess the impact of this deregulation on the production and cost systems of the industry. This is undertaken using a translog restricted cost function, for the period 1969 to 1996, with labour, milk and energy as the variab...
Article
Full-text available
The impact of unions on profitability is investigated through a comprehensive meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis of the available literature. Drawing upon 57 published empirical studies, with 91,200 observations, the paper establishes a negative and statistically significant union-profit effect for the US. This effect is robust to a number...
Article
Publication bias arises when statistically non-significant results are suppressed or when only results satisfying prior expectations are published. Like most fields, research in industrial relations is vulnerable to publication bias. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative techniques are used in order to detect publication bias in the union-pro...
Article
The analysis deals with the effects on aid allocati on of two characteristics of the recipient country: Income level, and population size. The eff ects are analyzed by two methods: A primary study of the data. A meta analysis of the l arge aid allocation literature, where the two effects are controlled for a wide range of factors. Both methods find...
Article
The AEL consists of empirical macro studies of the effects of development aid. At the end of 2004 it had reached 97 studies of three families, which we have summarized in one study each using meta-analysis. Studies of the effect on investments show that they rise by ,/3 ofthe aid – the rest is crowded out by a fall in savings. Studies of the effect...

Citations

... Selection models typically use maximum likelihood to obtain a publication-bias-adjusted pooled-effectsize estimate by accounting for the relative publication probabilities in each interval (called "weights") and using the weighted-likelihood function. Selection models can accommodate effect-size heterogeneity by extending random-effects models (Maier et al., 2021;McShane et al., 2016;Rothstein et al., 2005;Vevea & Hedges, 1995, pp. 145-174). ...