Henri Nyberg’s research while affiliated with University of Turku and other places

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Publications (37)


Fig. 1 Simulation results for Theorem 5
Fig. 2 Barplots showing the frequencies of the numbers of iterations N that were required for convergence in Algorithm 1 in various scenarios
Fig. 3 Spearman correlation between the outlyingnesses O 1i and O 2i as a function of the dimension p
Weighted embedding and outlier detection of metric space data
  • Article
  • Full-text available

February 2025

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17 Reads

Advances in Data Analysis and Classification

Lauri Heinonen

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Henri Nyberg

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This work discusses weighted kernel point projection (WKPP), a new method for embedding metric space or kernel data. WKPP is based on an iteratively weighted generalization of multidimensional scaling and kernel principal component analysis, and one of its main uses is outlier detection. After a detailed derivation of the method and its algorithm, we give theoretical guarantees regarding its convergence and outlier detection capabilities. Additionally, as one of our mathematical contributions, we give a novel characterization of kernelizability, connecting it also to the classical kernel literature. In our empirical examples, WKPP is benchmarked with respect to several competing outlier detection methods, using various different datasets. The obtained results show that WKPP is computationally fast, while simultaneously achieving performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods.

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Robust signal dimension estimation via SURE

December 2023

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37 Reads

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2 Citations

Statistical Papers

The estimation of signal dimension under heavy-tailed latent variable models is studied. As a primary contribution, robust extensions of an earlier estimator based on Gaussian Stein’s unbiased risk estimation are proposed. These novel extensions are based on the framework of elliptical distributions and robust scatter matrices. Extensive simulation studies are conducted in order to compare the novel methods with several well-known competitors in both estimation accuracy and computational speed. The novel methods are applied to a financial asset return data set.





Risk-Return Trade-off in International Stock Returns: Skewness and Business Cycles

September 2022

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13 Reads

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2 Citations

Econometrics and Statistics

The fundamental risk-return relation is examined with a flexible regime switching model combining the impact of skewness and business cycle regimes in stock returns. Key methodological and empirical findings point out the need for a highly nonlinear and non-Gaussian model to get a reliable picture on the risk-return relationship. With an international dataset of major countries to global financial markets, the empirical results show that accounting especially for skewness patterns leads to the expected positive risk-return relation, which is importantly also maintained over different business cycle conditions.


Citations (25)


... , 0.30. A similar setting was used in Heinonen et al. (2023). ...

Reference:

Spatial depth for data in metric spaces
Robust embedding and outlier detection of metric space data
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In this work, we revisit the classical problem of estimating the latent dimension in principal component analysis. Numerous solutions to this problem have been proposed in the literature, see, e.g., Luo and Li (2016); Nordhausen et al. (2021); Bernard and Verdebout (2024); Virta et al. (2024) for some recent works. The standard solutions are predominantly based on sequential subsphericity testing, information-theoretic criteria, or risk minimization. ...

Robust signal dimension estimation via SURE

Statistical Papers

... Moreover, the scheme allows to impose additional identifying restrictions which can be formulated into testable hypotheses. Further extensions of the non-Gaussian identification strategy includes cases such as when the system includes only strictly positive components (see, Nyberg and Rauhala (2022)), cases when a GMM estimation approach is employed (see, Lanne and Luoto (2021) and Keweloh (2021)) as well as specific cases when structural shocks are leptokurtic (e.g. see Lanne et al. (2023)) or heavy-tailed (e.g., see Anttonen et al. (2023)). ...

A Structural Vector Autoregression Containing Positive-Valued Components
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In addition to rapid availability, indicators that measure sentiments, anticipations, or uncertainty levels of people involved (e.g., by surveying consumers or purchasing managers) can capture some valuable information that would not (yet) be visible in hard data, see, e.g., Ristolainen et al. (2021). Take, for instance, the effects of uncertainty on the economy. ...

A Thousand Words Tell More Than Just Numbers: Financial Crises and Historical Headlines

... The presence of asymmetric signals can induce enough skewness to reject the null hypothesis of time-reversibility. Business cycle asymmetry can be tested with respect to whether macroeconomic fluctuations are time irreversible and can also be exploited for identification purposes as in Virolainen (2020) (see, Nyberg and Savva (2023)). ...

Risk-Return Trade-off in International Stock Returns: Skewness and Business Cycles
  • Citing Article
  • September 2022

Econometrics and Statistics

... Yet, they primarily work in the one-dimensional case and only mention economic identification in multivariate setups from the perspective of linear VARs. The work possibly closest to the present paper seems to be that of Lanne and Nyberg (2023), who develop a nearest-neighbor approach to impulse responses estimation that builds on the local projection idea and the GIRF concept. These papers, save for Gourieroux and Lee (2023), do not fully develop an asymptotic theory for their estimators, which makes it hard to judge the econometric assumptions under which they are applicable. ...

Nonparametric Impulse Response Analysis in Changing Macroeconomic Conditions
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... These include parametric portfolio policies (Brandt et al., 2009;DeMiguel et al., 2020), a boosting approach (Nevasalmi and Nyberg, 2021), a subset combination approach (Maasoumi et al., 2022), a genetic programming approach (Liu and Zhou, 2024), and an approach that using deep reinforcement learning (Cong et al., 2024). The above mentioned techniques involve optimizing economic utility for specific portfolio choice problems at the individual asset level, while our approach is about maximizing utility one level up by combining PRs. ...

Moving Forward from Predictive Regressions: Boosting Asset Allocation Decisions
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Jordà & Taylor, 2015). Though the reliability of the LP estimator has been questioned by a few researchers (Brugnolini, 2018;Kilian and Kim, 2011), there are several advantages to using LP (Lof and Nyberg, 2019). First, LP is advantageous when dealing with nonlinearities. ...

Discount Rates and Cash Flows: A Local Projection Approach
  • Citing Article
  • January 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Groen and Pesenti [21] use ten alternative commodity indices to those of Chen Rogoff, and Rossi [14], finding results that only partially support the CCH. Finally, Bork, Kaltwasser, and Sercu [22,23] and Lof and Nyberg [22,23] use the same data as Chen Rogoff, and Rossi [14] and give different arguments to support that there is no predictive relationship. As these previous works show, there is still room for a deeper understanding of the predictive capacity of commodity currencies on the behavior of commodity prices. ...

Noncausality and the Commodity Currency Hypothesis
  • Citing Article
  • June 2017

Energy Economics

... Many data exhibit nonlinear behaviors that linear models cannot capture. In fields such as finance (Benrhmach, Namir, Namir, and Bouyaghroumni, 2020), economics (Nyberg, 2018), biology and neuroscience (Kato, Taniguchi, and Honda, 2006;Yu, Liu, Heck, Berger, and Song, 2021), relationships among variables often involve thresholds, feedback loops, or sudden changes that linear models fail to address. These data often display temporal and cross-sectional dependencies, making them well-suited for modeling with nonlinear dynamical systems. ...

Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model: Forecasting with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model
  • Citing Article
  • March 2017

Journal of Forecasting