Hans de Moel's research while affiliated with Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and other places
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Publications (81)
There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years...
Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integ...
Rapid impact assessments immediately after disasters are crucial to enable rapid and effective mobilization of resources for response and recovery efforts. These assessments are often performed by analysing the three components of risk: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Vulnerability curves are often constructed using historic insurance data or e...
Due to rising sea levels and projected socio‐economic change, global coastal flood risk is expected to increase in the future. To reduce this increase in risk, one option is to reduce the probability or magnitude of the hazard through the implementation of structural, Nature‐based or hybrid adaptation measures. Nature‐based Solutions in coastal are...
Conventional green roofs have often been criticised for their limited water buffer capacity during extreme rainfall events and for their susceptibility to droughts when additional irrigation is unavailable. One solution to these challenges is to create an extra blue water retention layer underneath the green layer. Blue-green roofs allow more storm...
Reliable information on building stock and its vulnerability is important for understanding societal exposure to floods. Unfortunately, developing countries have less access to and availability of this information. Therefore, calculations for flood damage assessments have to use the scarce information available, often aggregated on a national or di...
This study provides a literature‐based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world‐regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea‐level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far...
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effec...
Countries in Southeast Asia have been developing quickly from a predominantly rural to predominantly urban society, leading to a rapid increase in urban land. This increase in urban land has mainly occurred in river deltas and floodplains, exposing humans and human assets to flood hazard. Here we present an assessment of current and future flood ri...
Over the last few decades, disasters resulting from natural hazards have often derailed hard-earned development progress. This is especially true in developing countries such as in sub-Saharan Africa which was the object of this study. The majority of disasters in Africa are hydro-meteorological in origin, with droughts affecting the largest number...
Reliable information on building stock and its vulnerability is important for understanding societal exposure to floods. Unfortunately, developing countries have less access to and availability of this information. Therefore, calculations for flood damage assessments have to use the scarce information available, often aggregated on a national or di...
For decades, meteorologists and governments have been warning communities in coastal areas for an imminent tropical cyclone (TC) using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The SSHWS categorizes a TC based on its maximum wind speed, and is used in defining evacuation strategies and humanitarian response. However, the SSHWS considers only...
Traditionally, building-level disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures are aimed at a single natural hazard. However, in many countries the society faces the threat of multiple hazards. Building-level DRR measures that aim to decrease earthquake vulnerability can have opposing or conflicting effects on flood vulnerability, and vice versa. In a case s...
Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters. To mitigate the impact of such disasters, it is essential to know extreme exceedance probabilities, also known as return periods, of TC hazards. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the STORM dataset, containing synthetic TCs equivalent of 10,000 years under presen...
Rapid impact assessments immediately after disasters are crucial to enable rapid and effective mobilization of resources for response and recovery efforts. These assessments are often performed by analysing the three components of risk: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Vulnerability curves are often constructed using historic insurance data or e...
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data-driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to b...
Flooding is one of the most significant natural disasters worldwide. Nevertheless, voluntary take‐up of individual damage reduction measures is low. A potential explanation is that flood risk perceptions of individual homeowners are below objective estimates of flood risk, which may imply that they underestimate the flood risk and the damage that c...
Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures a...
While text classification can classify tweets, assessing whether a tweet is related to an ongoing flood event or not, based on its text, remains difficult. Inclusion of contextual hydrological information could improve the performance of such algorithms. Here, a multilingual multimodal neural network is designed that can effectively use both textua...
Atmospheric oscillations are known to drive the large-scale variability of hydrometeorological extremes in Europe, which can trigger flood events and losses. However, to date there are no studies that have assessed the combined influence of different large-scale atmospheric oscillations on the probabilities of flood losses occurring. Therefore, in...
Over the past few decades, the world has seen substantial tropical cyclone (TC) damages, with the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria entering the top-5 costliest Atlantic hurricanes ever. Calculating TC risk at a global scale, however, has proven difficult given the limited temporal and spatial information on TCs across much of the global coast...
Flood risk can be reduced at various stages of the disaster management cycle. Traditionally, permanent infrastructure is used for flood prevention, while residual risk is managed with emergency measures that are triggered by forecasts. Advances in flood forecasting hold promise for a more prominent role to forecast-based measures. In this study, we...
Early event detection and response can significantly reduce the societal impact of floods. Currently, early warning systems rely on gauges, radar data, models and informal local sources. However, the scope and reliability of these systems are limited. Recently, the use of social media for detecting disasters has shown promising results, especially...
Abstract. Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection...
Purpose
Using risk-related data often require a significant amount of upfront work to collect, extract and transform data. In addition, the lack of a consistent data structure hinders the development of tools that can be used with more than one set of data. The purpose of this paper is to report on an effort to solve these problems through the deve...
In this study, we developed an enhanced approach for large-scale flood damage and risk assessments that uses characteristics of buildings and the built environment as object-based information to represent exposure and vulnerability to flooding. Most current large-scale assessments use an aggregated land-use category to represent the exposure, treat...
The economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicitly includes the indirect effects via regional econ...
Reliable information on building stock and its vulnerability is important for understanding societal exposure to flooding and other natural hazards. Unfortunately, this often lacks in developing countries, resulting in flood damage assessments that use aggregated information collected on a national- or district level. In many instances, this inform...
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk adaptation strategies offers policymakers insight into economically optimal strategies for adapting to sea level rise. However, building-level adaptation measures such as floodproofing or building elevation are often evaluated at aggregated spatial scales, which may result in sub-optimal investment decision...
This study offers insights into factors of influence on the implementation of flood damage mitigation measures by more than 1,000 homeowners who live in flood‐prone areas in New York City. Our theoretical basis for explaining flood preparedness decisions is protection motivation theory, which we extend using a variety of other variables that can ha...
Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for unce...
We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hu...
In this study, we developed an enhanced approach for large-scale flood damage and risk assessments that uses characteristics of buildings and the built environment as object-based information to represent exposure and vulnerability to flooding. Most current large-scale assessments use an aggregated land-use category to represent the exposure, treat...
The level of public response to extreme catastrophes is considerably greater than concern over climate change. This research compares the public’s responses to extreme disasters and climate change when governments intervene to mitigate long-term climate change impacts. To do so we examine the property market behaviour in response to beach erosion a...
Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of...
Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i...
The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on o...
Changes in available fresh water resources, together with changes in water use, force our society to adapt continuously to water scarcity conditions. Although several studies assess the role of long-term climate change and socioeconomic developments on global water scarcity, the impact of inter-annual climate variability is less understood and ofte...
Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Nethe...
Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about
their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also
matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6 months after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 of over 1,000...
Los Angeles (LA) County’s coastal areas are highly valued for their natural benefits and their economic contributions to the region. While LA County already has a high level of exposure to flooding (e.g. people, ports, and harbors), climate change and sea level rise will increase flood risk; anticipating this risk requires adaptation planning to mi...
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a future weather scenario. The fir...
Human activities have a profound influence on river discharge, hydrological extremes, and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the simulation of the mean, high, and low flows. The analys...
Most flood early warning systems have predominantly focused on forecasting floods with lead times of hours or days. However, physical processes during longer timescales can also contribute to flood generation. In this study, we follow a pragmatic approach to analyse the hydro-meteorological pre-conditions of 501 historical damaging floods from 1980...
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The f...
Timely and accurate information about ongoing events are crucial for relief organizations seeking to effectively respond to disasters. Recently, social media platforms, especially Twitter, have gained traction as a novel source of information on disaster events. Unfortunately, geographical information is rarely attached to tweets, which hinders the...
The availability of timely and accurate information about ongoing events is important for relief organizations seeking to effectively respond to disasters. Recently, social media platforms, and in particular Twitter, have gained traction as a novel source of information on disaster events. Unfortunately, geographical information is rarely attached...
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high impact of precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a future weather scenario. The...
Polder systems in Jakarta have been implemented since 1965, but their development has been hindered by social and political issues. Currently, the government of Jakarta has started to consider polder system as seen in the Spatial Plan 2030. This chapter assesses the benefits/costs of the polder system in Jakarta under current conditions and under f...
Transitioning is a unidirectional process of mainstreaming sustainability within normative societal behaviour, which communities hope will build resilience, reduce our dependence on distant resources and lead to the transformation towards more sustainable living as an end product. Throughout Europe there are numerous examples and pilot or demonstra...
Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of...
This white paper explains four novel concepts related hydrometeorological
risk assessments. For each concept, the current state of the concept is
described as a starting point for researchers and practitioners. Moreover,
directions in which these promising concepts can be further developed are
explored.
The following four concepts are addressed:
•...
Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6 months after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 of over 1,000...
