Hans Wedel’s research while affiliated with University of Gothenburg and other places

Background Previous meta-analyses of summary data from randomised controlled trials have shown that statin therapy increases the risk of diabetes, but less is known about the size or timing of this effect, or who is at greatest risk. We aimed to address these gaps in knowledge through analysis of individual participant data from large, long-term, randomised, double-blind trials of statin therapy. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of statin therapy that participated in the CTT Collaboration. All double-blind randomised controlled trials of statin therapy of at least 2 years’ scheduled duration and with at least 1000 participants were eligible for inclusion in this meta-analysis. All recorded diabetes-related adverse events, treatments, and measures of glycaemia were sought from eligible trials. Meta-analyses assessed the effects of allocation to statin therapy on new-onset diabetes (defined by diabetes-related adverse events, use of new glucose-lowering medications, glucose concentrations, or HbA1c values) and on worsening glycaemia in people with diabetes (defined by complications of glucose control, increased use of glucose-lowering medication, or HbA1c increase of ≥0·5%). Standard inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses of the effects on these outcomes were conducted according to a prespecified protocol. Findings Of the trials participating in the CTT Collaboration, 19 trials compared statin versus placebo (123 940 participants, 25 701 [21%] with diabetes; median follow-up of 4·3 years), and four trials compared more versus less intensive statin therapy (30 724 participants, 5340 [17%] with diabetes, median follow-up of 4·9 years). Compared with placebo, allocation to low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 10% proportional increase in new-onset diabetes (2420 of 39 179 participants assigned to receive a statin [1·3% per year] vs 2214 of 39 266 participants assigned to receive placebo [1·2% per year]; rate ratio [RR] 1·10, 95% CI 1·04–1·16), and allocation to high-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 36% proportional increase (1221 of 9935 participants assigned to receive a statin [4·8% per year] vs 905 of 9859 participants assigned to receive placebo [3·5% per year]; 1·36, 1·25–1·48). For each trial, the rate of new-onset diabetes among participants allocated to receive placebo depended mostly on the proportion of participants who had at least one follow-up HbA1c measurement; this proportion was much higher in the high-intensity than the low-intensity or moderate-intensity trials. Consequently, the main determinant of the magnitude of the absolute excesses in the two types of trial was the extent of HbA1c measurement rather than the proportional increase in risk associated with statin therapy. In participants without baseline diabetes, mean glucose increased by 0·04 mmol/L with both low-intensity or moderate-intensity (95% CI 0·03–0·05) and high-intensity statins (0·02–0·06), and mean HbA1c increased by 0·06% (0·00–0·12) with low-intensity or moderate-intensity statins and 0·08% (0·07–0·09) with high-intensity statins. Among those with a baseline measure of glycaemia, approximately 62% of new-onset diabetes cases were among participants who were already in the top quarter of the baseline distribution. The relative effects of statin therapy on new-onset diabetes were similar among different types of participants and over time. Among participants with baseline diabetes, the RRs for worsening glycaemia were 1·10 (1·06–1·14) for low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy and 1·24 (1·06–1·44) for high-intensity statin therapy compared with placebo. Interpretation Statins cause a moderate dose-dependent increase in new diagnoses of diabetes that is consistent with a small upwards shift in glycaemia, with the majority of new diagnoses of diabetes occurring in people with baseline glycaemic markers that are close to the diagnostic threshold for diabetes. Importantly, however, any theoretical adverse effects of statins on cardiovascular risk that might arise from these small increases in glycaemia (or, indeed, from any other mechanism) are already accounted for in the overall reduction in cardiovascular risk that is seen with statin therapy in these trials. These findings should further inform clinical guidelines regarding clinical management of people taking statin therapy.

Background Historically, the incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality in persons with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been increased compared to the general population. Contemporary studies on time trends of mortality and cardiovascular disease are sparse. Methods In this observational study, T1D persons were identified in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n=45,575) and compared with matched controls from the general population (n=220,141). Incidence rates from 2002 to 2019 were estimated with respect to mortality and cardiovascular disease in persons with T1D overall and when stratified for prevalent cardiovascular and renal disease relative to controls. Findings Mean age in persons with T1D was 32.4 years and 44.9% (20,446/45,575) were women. Age- and sex- adjusted mortality rates declined over time in both groups but remained significantly higher in those with T1D compared to controls during 2017–2019, 7.62 (95% CI 7.16; 8·08) vs. 2.23 (95% CI 2.13; 2.33) deaths per 1,000 person years. Myocardial infarction, heart failure and stroke decreased over time in both groups, with persistent excess risks in the range of 3.4–5.0 times from 2017 to 2019 in those with T1D. T1D persons ≥45 years without previous renal or cardiovascular complications had standardized mortality rates similar or even lower than controls 5.55 (4.51; 6.60) vs.7.08 (6.75; 7.40) respectively in the last time period. Interpretation Excess mortality persisted over time in persons with T1D, largely in patients with cardiorenal complications. Improved secondary prevention with a focus on individualized treatment is needed to close the gap in mortality for individuals with T1D. Funding This study was financed by grants from the ALF-agreement, NovoNordisk Foundation and the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation.

Background Statin therapy is effective for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and is widely prescribed, but there are persisting concerns that statin therapy might frequently cause muscle pain or weakness. We aimed to address these through an individual participant data meta-analysis of all recorded adverse muscle events in large, long-term, randomised, double-blind trials of statin therapy. Methods Randomised trials of statin therapy were eligible if they aimed to recruit at least 1000 participants with a scheduled treatment duration of at least 2 years, and involved a double-blind comparison of statin versus placebo or of a more intensive versus a less intensive statin regimen. We analysed individual participant data from 19 double-blind trials of statin versus placebo (n=123 940) and four double-blind trials of a more intensive versus a less intensive statin regimen (n=30 724). Standard inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses of the effects on muscle outcomes were conducted according to a prespecified protocol. Findings Among 19 placebo-controlled trials (mean age 63 years [SD 8], with 34 533 [27·9%] women, 59 610 [48·1%] participants with previous vascular disease, and 22 925 [18·5%] participants with diabetes), during a weighted average median follow-up of 4·3 years, 16 835 (27·1%) allocated statin versus 16 446 (26·6%) allocated placebo reported muscle pain or weakness (rate ratio [RR] 1·03; 95% CI 1·01–1·06). During year 1, statin therapy produced a 7% relative increase in muscle pain or weakness (1·07; 1·04–1·10), corresponding to an absolute excess rate of 11 (6–16) events per 1000 person-years, which indicates that only one in 15 ([1·07–1·00]/1·07) of these muscle-related reports by participants allocated to statin therapy were actually due to the statin. After year 1, there was no significant excess in first reports of muscle pain or weakness (0·99; 0·96–1·02). For all years combined, more intensive statin regimens (ie, 40–80 mg atorvastatin or 20–40 mg rosuvastatin once per day) yielded a higher RR than less intensive or moderate-intensity regimens (1·08 [1·04–1·13] vs 1·03 [1·00–1·05]) compared with placebo, and a small excess was present (1·05 [0·99–1·12]) for more intensive regimens after year 1. There was no clear evidence that the RR differed for different statins, or in different clinical circumstances. Statin therapy yielded a small, clinically insignificant increase in median creatine kinase values of approximately 0·02 times the upper limit of normal. Interpretation Statin therapy caused a small excess of mostly mild muscle pain. Most (>90%) of all reports of muscle symptoms by participants allocated statin therapy were not due to the statin. The small risks of muscle symptoms are much lower than the known cardiovascular benefits. There is a need to review the clinical management of muscle symptoms in patients taking a statin. Funding British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Background: Historically, life expectancy in persons with type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been shorter than the general population, but earlier studies did not stratify patients according to cardiorenal complications. Methods: T1D persons were identified in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n=45,575) and compared with matched controls from the general population (n=220,141) . Mortality rates from 2002 to 20were estimated in persons with T1D overall and after stratification for prevalent cardiovascular and renal disease. Results: In persons with T1D, mean age was 32.4 years and 44.9% were women. Age- and sex- adjusted mortality rates decreased over time in both groups but remained significantly higher in those with T1D during 2017 to 2019. In T1D persons ≥45 years without previous renal or cardiovascular complications (approximately 50% of persons in this age group) similar standardized mortality rates were observed, over time compared with controls, with slightly lower mortality in T1D persons during the last period, 5.55 (95% CI 4.51-6.60) vs. 7. (95% CI 6.75-7.40) deaths per 1,000 person years (Figure) . Conclusion: Excess mortality persisted over time in persons with T1D, largely in patients with cardiorenal complications. Improved secondary prevention with a focus on differentiated treatment is needed to close the gap in mortality for persons with T1D. Disclosure S. Hallström: None. M.O. Wijkman: None. J. Ludvigsson: Advisory Panel; Dompé. Research Support; Diamyd Medical. M.A. Pfeffer: Consultant; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly Alliance, Corvidia Therapeutics, GlaxoSmithKline plc., Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Novo Nordisk, Peerbridge, Sanofi. Research Support; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. Other Relationship; DalCor Pharmaceuticals, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. A. Rosengren: None. M. Lind: Consultant; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk. Research Support; Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk. Funding ALF [ALFGBG-717211] and [ALFGBG-966173], grants from the Novo Nordisk foundation, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation [20180589], [20210679], Swedish Research Council [2018-02527] [VRREG 2019-00193], and the Gothenburg Society of Medicine.

Aims Albuminuria is strongly associated with risk of renal dysfunction, cardiovascular disease and mortality. However, clinical guidelines diverge, and evidence is sparse on what risk factor levels regarding blood pressure, blood lipids and BMI are needed to prevent albuminuria in adolescents and young adults with type 1 diabetes. Methods A total of 9347 children and adults with type 1 diabetes [mean age 15.3 years and mean diabetes duration 1.4 years at start of follow-up] from The Swedish National Diabetes Registry were followed from first registration until end of 2017. Levels for risk factors for a risk increase in nephropathy were evaluated, and the gradient of risk per 1 SD (standard deviation) was estimated to compare the impact of each risk factor. Results During the follow-up period, 8610 (92.1%) remained normoalbuminuric, 737 (7.9%) individuals developed micro- or macroalbuminuria at any time period of whom 132 (17.9% of 737) individuals developed macroalbuminuria. Blood pressure ≥ 140/80 mmHg was associated with increased risk of albuminuria ( p ≤ 0.0001), as were triglycerides ≥ 1.0 mmol/L ( p = 0.039), total cholesterol ≥ 5.0 mmol/L ( p = 0.0003), HDL < 1.0 mmol/L ( p = 0.013), LDL 3.5– < 4.0 mmol/L ( p = 0.020), and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m ² ( p = 0.033). HbA1c was the strongest risk factor for any albuminuria estimated by the measure gradient of risk per 1 SD, followed by diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol and LDL. In patients with HbA1c > 65 mmol/mol (> 8.1%), blood pressure > 140/70 mmHg was associated with increased risk of albuminuria. Conclusions Preventing renal complications in adolescents and young adults with type 1 diabetes need avoidance at relatively high levels of blood pressure, blood lipids and BMI, whereas very tight control is not associated with further risk reduction. For patients with long-term poor glycaemic control, stricter blood pressure control is advocated.

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this work was to study the incidence over time of lower extremity amputations and determine variables associated with increased risk of amputations in people with type 1 diabetes. Methods Individuals with type 1 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry with no previous amputation from 1 January 1998 and followed to 2 October 2019 were included. Time-updated Cox regression and gradient of risk per SD were used to evaluate the impact of risk factors on the incidence of amputation. Age- and sex-adjusted incidences were estimated over time. Results Of 46,088 people with type 1 diabetes with no previous amputation (mean age 32.5 years [SD 14.5], 25,354 [55%] male sex), 1519 (3.3%) underwent amputation. Median follow-up was 12.4 years. The standardised incidence for any amputation in 1998–2001 was 2.84 (95% CI 2.32, 3.36) per 1000 person-years and decreased to 1.64 (95% CI 1.38, 1.90) per 1000 person-years in 2017–2019. The incidence for minor and major amputations showed a similar pattern. Hyperglycaemia and renal dysfunction were the strongest risk factors for amputation, followed by older age, male sex, cardiovascular comorbidities, smoking and hypertension. Glycaemic control and age- and sex-adjusted renal function improved during the corresponding time period as amputations decreased. Conclusions/interpretation The incidence of amputation and of the most prominent risk factors for amputation, including renal dysfunction and hyperglycaemia, has improved considerably during recent years for people with type 1 diabetes. This finding has important implications for quality of life, health economics and prognosis regarding CVD, indicating a trend shift in the treatment of type 1 diabetes. Graphical abstract

Background: Lower extremity amputations in people with diabetes is a major source of disability and distress and it constitutes a significant financial burden for the healthcare system. Risk factors and current risks for amputation in persons with type 1 diabetes have not been extensively studied. Methods: Persons with type 1 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry with no previous amputation from 1998 and followed until 2019 were included. Time-updated Cox regression and gradient of risk per SD were used to evaluate the impact of risk factors on the incidence of amputation. Age and sex adjusted incidences were estimated over time. Findings: Of 46,008 persons with type 1 diabetes with no previous amputation and a mean age of 32.5 years (SD 14.5) and 25 354 (55%) male, 1,519 (3.3%) underwent amputation. Median follow-up was 12.4 years. The age and sex adjusted incidence for any amputation decreased over time. The standardized incidence was 1998-2001 2.84 (95% CI 2.32-3.36) per 1000 patient years and decreased to 1.64 (95% CI 1.38-1.90) in 2017-2019 along with improved glycaemic control (0.02% [95% CI 0.02-0.02] per year) and renal function (0.23 ml/min/1.73m² [95% CI 0.21-0.24] per year). Risk factors for amputations were hyperglycemia, renal dysfunction, older age, male gender, cardiovascular comorbidities, smoking and hypertension. Interpretation: Prognosis has improved considerably regarding the risk of amputations in persons with type 1 diabetes while glycaemic control and renal function improved which were the most prominent risk factors. Disclosure S. Hallström: None. A. Svensson: None. A. Pivodic: None. A. F. Olafsdottir: None. M. Londahl: Advisory Panel; Self; Abbott, Speaker’s Bureau; Self; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Lilly Diabetes, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi. H. Wedel: None. M. Lind: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Other Relationship; Self; Novo Nordisk, Research Support; Self; Dexcom, Inc. Funding Novo Nordisk Foundation; Swedish State

Background: Persons with diabetic nephropathy have an increased risk to progress to severe renal failure and have a high cardiovascular risk. To better understand the impact of risk factors on diabetes complications information from diagnosis and onward is needed. Less focus has been on evaluating other risk factors than HbA1c following large populations from diagnosis with repeated measurements. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate risk factors for albuminuria in children and young adults. Methods: In a population-based cohort study persons with type 1 diabetes (T1D), both children (data from SWEDIABKIDS) and adults (data from Swedish National Diabetes Registry) were included, and followed from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2017. The association between risk factors and albuminuria was evaluated. The gradient of risk per 1 SD (standard deviation) was estimated to compare the impact of each risk factor. Results: A total of 10398 individuals with T1D were followed, 43.4% female, mean age 14.7 years and mean HbA1c 8.0% (63.4 mmol/mol). HbA1c was the strongest risk factor with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.51 (95% 1.39-1.64, p<0.0001). After adjustment for age, sex and mean HbA1c the OR per 1 SD increase were for mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 1.27 (95% 1.16-1.39, p<0.0001), mean triglycerides 1.21 (95% 1.14-1.28, p<0.0001), mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) 1.21 (95% 1.10-1.33, p<0.0001), mean cholesterol 1.16 (95% 1.07-1.25, p=0.0002) and mean LDL 1.12 (95% 1.03-1.21, p=0.0051). Risk for albuminuria increased at the following levels: SBP 140 mmHg, DBP 80 mmHg, triglycerides >89 mg/dL (>1.0 mmol/L), total cholesterol >193 mg/dL (>5.0 mmol/L), LDL >135 mg/dL (>3.5 mmol/L) and BMI >30 kg/m2. Smoking showed no association. Conclusion: For individuals with type 1 diabetes, higher HbA1c, blood pressure, triglycerides, LDL and cholesterol were the most prominent risk factors for albuminuria. Blood pressure levels 140/80 mmHg were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. Disclosure S.S. Ahmadi: None. A. Pivodic: None. A. Svensson: None. H. Wedel: None. J. Ludvigsson: None. M. Lind: Advisory Panel; Self; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Novo Nordisk Inc. Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk Inc. Research Support; Self; Dexcom, Inc., Novo Nordisk Inc. Funding Swedish Child Diabetes Foundation

Background: Moderate and moderately severe renal impairment are common in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction, but whether beta-blockers are effective is unclear, leading to underuse of life-saving therapy. Objectives: This study sought to investigate patient prognosis and the efficacy of beta-blockers according to renal function using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Methods: Analysis of 16,740 individual patients with left ventricular ejection fraction <50% from 10 double-blind, placebo-controlled trials was performed. The authors report all-cause mortality on an intention-to-treat basis, adjusted for baseline covariates and stratified by heart rhythm. Results: Median eGFR at baseline was 63 (interquartile range: 50 to 77) ml/min/1.73 m2; 4,584 patients (27.4%) had eGFR 45 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2, and 2,286 (13.7%) 30 to 44 ml/min/1.73 m2. Over a median follow-up of 1.3 years, eGFR was independently associated with mortality, with a 12% higher risk of death for every 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10% to 15%; p < 0.001). In 13,861 patients in sinus rhythm, beta-blockers reduced mortality versus placebo; adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.73 for eGFR 45 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI: 0.62 to 0.86; p < 0.001) and 0.71 for eGFR 30 to 44 ml/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.87; p = 0.001). The authors observed no deterioration in renal function over time in patients with moderate or moderately severe renal impairment, no difference in adverse events comparing beta-blockers with placebo, and higher mortality in patients with worsening renal function on follow-up. Due to exclusion criteria, there were insufficient patients with severe renal dysfunction (eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2) to draw conclusions. In 2,879 patients with atrial fibrillation, there was no reduction in mortality with beta-blockers at any level of eGFR. Conclusions: Patients with heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction <50% and sinus rhythm should receive beta-blocker therapy even with moderate or moderately severe renal dysfunction.

Objective The purpose of the study was to investigate the excess risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and death from coronary artery disease (coronary heart disease, CHD) in relation to age, level of glycaemic control and renal complications in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods A total of 431 579 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2012, and 2 173 620 controls from the general population were included. Cox regression was used to study the excess risk of AMI and CHD. Results During follow-up of 5.1 years in the diabetes group and 5.4 years in the control group, 36 124 (8.4%) and 115 712 (5.3%) CHD events were registered, with corresponding incidence rates/1000 person-years of 14.64 (95% CI 14.49 to 14.79) and 8.73 (95% CI 8.68 to 8.78), respectively. The HR after adjustment for sex and age was 1.67 (1.65–1.69) which was reduced to 1.42 (1.41–1.44) with further adjustment for level of education, country of birth, diabetes duration and comorbidities. The multivariable-adjusted HR for AMI and CHD death with a time-updated glycated haemoglobin level of 6.9% or lower (≤52 mmol/mol) together with normoalbuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥60 mL/min for patients with diabetes compared with controls was 0.95 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.98, p<0.001). Conclusions In this study, the excess risk of AMI and CHD death was higher for patients with type 2 diabetes compared with controls but converged to that in the general population in patients with on-target HbA1c levels and without renal complications.