Guleid Artan's research while affiliated with Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre and other places

Publications (23)

Preprint
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Extreme Rainfall is crucial for Crop production and food security in Eastern Africa. This paper seeks to investigate the changes and variability in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region. Data used are Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Several statistical methods and wet days and dry spells thresholds at...
Preprint
Rainfall Onset Dates (ROD), Rainfall Cessation Dates (RCD) and Length of rainy Season (LRS) are crucial for Crop production and food security in Eastern Africa yet scantily documented. This paper seeks to investigate the spatial patterns of these parameters. Data used are Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and N...
Article
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Rangelands dominate arid and semi-arid lands of the Greater Horn ofAfrica (GHA) region, whereby pastoralism being the primary source oflivelihood. The pastoral livelihood is affected by the seasonal variabilityof pasture and water resources. This research sought to design a grid-basedforage monitoring and prediction model for the cross-border areas...
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A significant proportion of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions, hence there is a high demand for climate information. In response to this need, the Global Challenges Research Fund African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques has been undertaking a two-year testbed to co-produce t...
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Timing of the rainy season is essential for a number of climate sensitive sectors over Eastern Africa. This is particularly true for the agricultural sector, where most activities depend on both the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall throughout the season. Using a combination of observational and reanalysis datasets, the present study in...
Preprint
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Climate models are useful tools that aid in short to long term prediction of the evolution of climate. In this study we assess how CMIP6 models represent coupling between processes over the land and atmosphere, based on terrestrial and atmospheric indices, to show the nature and strength of the coupling relative to the ERA5 datasets over Africa, wi...
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The skill of precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems has a strong regional and seasonal dependence. Quantifying the skill of models for different regions and timescales is important, not only to improve forecast skill, but to enhance the effective uptake of forecast information. The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S) database...
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Ethiopia and South Sudan contain several population centers and important ecosystems that depend on July–August rainfall. Here we use two models to understand current and future rainfall: the first ever pan-African numerical model of climate change with explicit convection and a parameterized model that resembles a typical regional climate model at...
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An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
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Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to d...
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The article highlights the potential links between Desert Locust outbreak, tropical cyclones in the neighboring regions, and ocean warming. It also indicates the role of non-climatic factors in amplifying the impact of climate change. Can be accessible via: https://rdcu.be/b5kuA
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Abstract We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels (1861−1890) on mean temperature and precipitation as well as intra-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa. We used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Downscal...
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This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM s...
Article
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The magnitude and trend of temperature and rainfall extremes as indicators of climate variability and change were investigated in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of Kenya using in-situ measurements and gridded climate proxy datasets, and analysed using the Gaussian-Kernel analysis and the Mann-Kendall statistics. The results show that the maxi...
Chapter
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The aim of this study was to determine suitability zones of future banana growth under a changing climate to guide the design of future adaptation options in the banana sub-sector of Uganda. The study used high resolution (~1 km) data on combined bioclimatic variables (rainfall and temperature) to map suitability zones of the banana crop while the...
Article
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Statistically downscaled forecasts of October-December (OND) rainfall are evaluated over East Africa from two general circulation model (GCM) seasonal prediction systems. The method uses canonical correlation analysis to relate variability in predicted large-scale rainfall (characterizing, e.g., predicted ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole variability) t...
Article
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Climate models are becoming evermore complex and increasingly relied upon to inform climate change adaptation. Yet progress in model development is lagging behind in many of the regions that need the information most, including in Africa. Targeted model development for Africa is crucial and so too is targeted model evaluation. Assessment of model p...

Citations

... connections found between the interannual variability of SSTs and the GHA rainy seasons in observations, models with WIOSSTs and IODs that are too strong may be expected to have rainy seasons that are biased wet, or dry for models with WIOSSTs and IODs that are too weak. Connections between SSTs and the timing of the rainy seasons are more tenuous-forecast skill is connected more to atmospheric variables (e.g., MacLeod (2018))-but a recent study has connected onset variability in the short rains to SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean (Gudoshava et al. 2022). ...
... The second is from ocean. Endris et al. (2021) found a strong teleconnection between March rainfall (May rainfall) over Africa and SST over Indian Ocean (Somali low-level jet), supporting the concept that oceanic processes may be potential sources of one-month lead predictability. Moreover, we calculated the correlation between April precipitation and the ENSO index in May during the 2001-2020 (see Fig. S3). ...
... When decreasing horizontal grid spacing to about 4 km or less, deep convection is crudely resolved by the model and the parametrization of this process can be switched off (Prein et al. 2015). Recent Convection-Permitting (CP) model simulations over East Africa have shown to substantially improve model performance for rainfall intensity, rainfall diurnal cycle, storm propagation and dry spells ( Van de Walle et al. 2020;Finney et al. 2019Finney et al. , 2020aJackson et al. 2020;Senior et al. 2021;Misiani et al. 2020;Woodhams et al. 2018)). Moreover, Van de Walle et al. (2020) found a much better representation of top-of-atmosphere radiation in their COSMO-CLM CP model simulation compared to the CORDEX-Africa COSMO-CLM simulations (Kothe et al. 2014) and linked this both to higher resolution and to the improved microphysics (2-moment scheme). ...
... In Kenya, deforestation has greatly impacted the five major water towers (Mount Kenya, Mau Forest, Aberdare Forest, Mount Elgon, and Cherangani) which supply about 75% of the total freshwater and which support important ecosystems that are vital for the country's sustainable production. Deforestation in Mount Kenya, Aberdare Forest, Mount Elgon, and Cherangani water towers has led to a decline in rainfall amounts (e.g., less cloud water interception) accompanied by shifting rainfall patterns thereby reducing their productivity (Mwangi et al., 2020). Additionally, climate change impacts associated with weather variability such as high temperatures have increased forest fires incidents, further threatening the existing forests (Schmitz and Kihara, 2021). ...
... Furthermore, climate change may favor the spread of pests that threaten crop production, allowing them to appear earlier and in areas where they could previously not establish [42]. An example is the desert locust outbreak across several East African countries between 2019 and 2020, which originated in the Arabian Peninsula in the aftermath of the powerful tropical c Mekunu [43]. Climate change is also predicted to increase foodborne and waterborne diseases, changing microbial communities and species interactions, [44][45][46]. ...
... There are a considerable number of de nitions and thresholds for calculating wet days and dry spells patterns in the Literature. In most cases, these de nitions and thresholds produce different wet/dry days and spells even when applied to the same observation or gridded dataset (e. (Gudoshava et al., 2020a). All these methods observed limitation regarding number of rainy days within threshold of total rainfall amount, seasonal extremes indices and probability of exceeding de ned wet days and dry spells. ...
... The primary difference from Figure 3a is the V-shaped pattern of negative (often significant) correlation in the western Pacific, especially at the apex of the V. A similar pattern has been found in previous studies examining the role of western Pacific SSTs in the LR drying trend (Funk et al., 2018(Funk et al., , 2019Funk & Hoell, 2015;Lyon & DeWitt, 2012). Comparing the distributions suggests that the relationship of western Pacific SSTs with EA rainfall totals is more independent of the MJO. ...
... The responses of large-scale circulation patterns to climate change have been reported; for example, the poleward expansion of the descent region of the Hadley circulation (Byrne & Schneider 2016); the expansion of the subtropics (Lau & Kim 2015); the narrowing of the width of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Hu & Fu 2007), among others. Furthermore, while the response of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to radiative heating is uncertain (e.g., Latif & Keenlyside 2009;Endris et al. 2019), Müller & Roeckner (2006) found that changing the state of ENSO with increased variability can significantly impact northern hemispheric mid-latitude circulation in future climate. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is a major mode of variability that impacts synoptic circulations in southern Africa, is projected to undergo a shift toward positive polarity (Gillett & Thompson 2003), implying more frequent higher sea level pressure (SLP) over the mid-latitudes, especially during the austral summer season (Ding et al. 2012). ...
... Extreme weather events impose a challenge for many communities in rural sub-Saharan Africa. This is particularly true for the pastoral populations in Northern Kenya, where climate change has reinforced both the frequency and magnitude of droughts (Haile et al., 2019;Herrero et al., 2016;Opiyo et al., 2016;Ouma et al., 2018;Thornton et al., 2009;Uhe et al., 2018). To cope with droughts, members of pastoralist communities oftentimes rely on detrimental strategies such as withdrawing children from school, selling productive assets or producing charcoal, which causes long-term economic repercussions (Janzen & Carter, 2018) and over-exploits existing resources (Opiyo et al., 2015;Speranza, 2010). ...
... 61 In addition, heatwaves can reduce plant growth as a result of moisture deficits, especially if coinciding with dry periods. 62 Indirectly, heat stress could lead to a higher incidence of pests and diseases, such as the black sigatoka 63 and the fusarium wilt. 64 Increases in intensity and occurrence in extreme temperatures could lead to more limited ranges where bananas can be grown, with nearly half of the existing production projected to become unsuitable. ...