Guedae Cho’s research while affiliated with North Dakota State University and other places

Using monthly data covering 1974:1 to 2002:12, this paper explores the linkage between changes in macroeconomic variables (real exchange rate and inflation rate) and changes in relative agricultural prices in different time horizons (1, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months). By controlling factors that determine the long-run trend of relative agricultural prices, the results show that long-term changes in real exchange rates have had a significant negative correlation with the long-term changes in relative agricultural prices. Conversely, changes in the general price significantly affect short-term changes in the relative agricultural price.

The practices of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) are an important issue in U.S. - Canada trade disputes and WTO negotiations. This study analyzes the CWB?s effect on U.S. producers by reviewing findings from previous research and developing models to analyze CWB wheat exports to the United States and the competitive structure of Canadian wheat exports in the world market. U.S. grain producers could benefit from the removal of the CWB as the United States could become more competitive in export markets. However, elimination of the CWB could also result in an increase in Canadian wheat exports to the United States as Canadian producers near the border could sell directly to the United States to take advantage of market opportunities. The net effect is difficult to quantify. The net benefits may be significant in the short run, but reduced significantly in the long run. Similarly, if Canada reforms its wheat board by eliminating trade-distorting subsidies, the United States may increase its exports and Canadian exports to the United States may increase. The net benefits from reforming the CWB could be greater than those from eliminating it. However, the United States could benefit the most from complete elimination of state trading enterprises (STEs), since they have elements distorting trade flows and the United States competes with several STEs in the world wheat market.

An import demand model, augmented with third country effect variables, is developed to examine the effects of strong U.S. dollar, volatility of the U.S. dollar, and competition among the exporting countries on the shares of U.S. wheat in Asian markets. In the empirical model, the dependent variable is the market shares of U.S. wheat. Explanatory variables include wheat prices of exporting countries; exchange rates between the importing and exporting countries, and volatilities of the exchange rates. Panel estimation results show that the U.S. currency value and volatility, Australian wheat price, and the volatilities of Canadian and Australian currency values have significant effects on the U.S. market shares.

This paper seeks to explain the causes of the long-term variation in food and agricultural prices compared to the overall price level in the United States, over the period of 1974-1996. Using cointegration methods, this study confirms a general consensus of long-run neutrality of national money (money supply) and gives practical evidence of the real impact of international money (exchange rate) on the long-term variation of relative agricultural price in the United States, especially during the 1974-1988 period.

The pattern of trade between the United States and China has dramatically changed during the past 15 years. Until 1992, the commodity trade volume between the two countries was around $10 billion per year, but it grew to$60 billion in 1999. Because China has kept its currency (yuan or renminbi) pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1994, its current large trade surplus with the United States has led some critics to claim that the yuan is undervalued. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of the U.S.-China bilateral exchange rate on the pattern of trade between the two countries after controlling for alternative factors influencing U.S.-Chinese bilateral trade flows. The results suggested that the U.S-China bilateral exchange rate does not have an important role in explaining bilateral trade between the two countries, while the relative exchange rate between the United States and the South-East Asian countries are more important in explaining the trade imbalance between the United States and China.

Using a monthly data covering from 1974:1 to 2002:12, this paper explores the linkage between changes in macroeconomic variables (real exchange rate and inflation rate) and changes in relative agricultural prices in different time horizons (1, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months). Controlling for factors likely to determine the long run trend of relative agricultural prices, the results show that long-term changes in real exchange rate has had a significant negative correlation with the long-term changes in relative agricultural prices. Conversely, changes of the general price have a role in explaining short-term changes in relative agricultural price at best.

We propose a different perspective for interpretation of exchange rate pass-through: a relatively lower (higher) degree of pass-through implies a competitive (less competitive) market. Using three different wheat exporting countries, the United States, Canada, and Australia, and two importing countries, Japan and Korea, we are not likely to reject our hypothesis. In the competitive market (Japan), the exporting countries determine their prices based on changes in the competing country's price, and as a result, there is a close-to-zero degree of exchange rate pass-through. However, a lower degree of price competition and a significantly higher degree of exchange rate pass-through are found in a less competitive market (Korea).

This paper examines whether exchange rate misalignment negatively affects agricultural trade, compared to other industry sectors. Nominal exchange rate misalignment is obtained from the percentage deviation of real exchange rates from their long-run equilibrium based on the theory of purchasing power parity. In order to explore this issue, a bilateral trade matrix involving trade flows between 10 developed countries is constructed. Using panel data analysis, a gravity model is estimated for 4 industry sectors over the period 1974-1999. The study finds that over-valuation (under-valuation) of the nominal exchange rate negatively (positively) affects export performance of the agricultural sector in particular. In the large-scale manufacturing sectors considered in this paper, exports are not significantly affected by exchange rate misalignment.

This study examines third country effects on U.S. wheat export performance in Asian countries. An import demand model is developed to analyze the impacts of price competitiveness, exchange rates, and exchange rate volatilities on U.S. wheat market shares. The United States competes with Australia and Canada in the Asian wheat market. Empirical results show that two factors, Australian wheat price and U.S. dollar values against the Asian countries' currencies, have significant effects on U.S. market shares in this region. Furthermore, exchange rate risks between the exporting and importing countries are found to be important.

This study proposes alternative reasons to explain an asymmetric intra-industry trade for agricultural products between Canada and the United States after the free trade agreement became effective. Using time-series data, a gravity model is developed which enables us to examine the significance of exchange rates and different trade patterns on bilateral trade.