Graham Leonard’s research while affiliated with GNS Science and other places

When disasters occur, rapid impact assessments are required to prioritise response actions, support in-country efforts and inform the mobilisation of aid. The 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, and the resulting atmospheric shockwave, ashfall, underwater mass disturbance and tsunami, caused substantial impacts across the Kingdom of Tonga. Volcanic impacts on the scale observed after the eruption are rare, necessitating a reliance on international advice and assistance. The situation was complicated by the loss of Tonga’s international submarine fibreoptic cable (causing a complete loss of communications for approximately 20 days) along with border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A need emerged for a rapid remote volcanic impact assessment and provision of specialist advice to help inform the response of international partners. Here we present a novel methodology for conducting rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessments, conducted over a 10-day period following the eruption. We used three different hazard models for ashfall thickness across the main island of Tongatapu and available asset information and vulnerability functions for buildings, agriculture, electricity networks, water supply and roads, to provide initial estimates of losses due to ashfall from the 15 January eruption. For buildings, we estimated losses both as total losses and as percentages of the total replacement cost of buildings on Tongatapu. For agriculture, we made probabilistic estimates of production losses for three different crop classes. For ashfall clean-up, we estimated ranges of ashfall volumes requiring clean-up from road surfaces and roofs. For water supply, electricity networks and roads, our analysis was limited to assessing the exposure of important assets to ashfall, as we had insufficient information on system configurations to take the analysis further. Key constraints on our analysis were the limited nature of critical infrastructure asset inventories and the lack of volcanic vulnerability models for tropical regions including Pacific Island nations. Key steps towards iteratively improving rapid remote impact assessments will include developing vulnerability functions for tropical environments as well as ground-truthing estimated losses from remote approaches against in-person impact assessment campaigns.

Dating young lava flows is essential for understanding volcano's eruption frequency, yet challenging due to methodological limitations of commonly used dating techniques. Ruapehu (Aotearoa New Zealand) produced many lava flows during the Holocene, but constraints on the timing of these eruptions are scarce. Here, we use paleomagnetic dating to deliver new eruption ages of 18 lava flows with uncertainties ranging between 500 and 2,700 years (at the 95% confidence level). Comparison between lava flows' paleomagnetic directions and a local paleosecular variation record indicates that the large lava flow field located on the Whakapapa area was emplaced during at least three distinct eruptive episodes between 10600 and 7400 BP. Two of these episodes closely followed a large collapse event that affected Ruapehu's northern area and generated large volumes of lava between 10600 and 8800 BP, with the third episode producing less voluminous lava flows between 8100 and 7400 BP. Following a smaller collapse of the southeastern sector of the edifice at ca. 5300 BP, several low‐volume lava flows were emplaced during at least two distinct eruptive episodes prior to ca. 1000 BP, which supplied the Whangaehu valley with lava. The youngest age inferred from our data represents the youngest eruption age provided for a lava flow outside Ruapehu's summit region. This research provides greater detail to the Holocene effusive chronology at Ruapehu, shedding light on partial cone reconstructions after edifice collapses during the Holocene, and the time relationships between trends observed in its effusive and explosive activity.

Building damage from tephra falls can have a substantial impact on exposed communities around erupting volcanoes. There are limited empirical studies of tephra fall impacts on buildings, with none on tephra falls impacting traditional thatched timber buildings, despite their prevalence across South Pacific island nations and parts of Asia. The 2017/2018 explosive eruption of Manaro Voui, Ambae Island, Vanuatu, resulted in damage to traditional (thatched timber), non-traditional (masonry), and hybrid buildings from tephra falls in March/April and July 2018. Field and photographic surveys were conducted across three separate field studies with building characteristics and damage recorded for a total of 589 buildings. Buildings were classified using a damage state framework customised for this study. Overall, increasing tephra thicknesses were related to increasing severity of building damage, corroborating previous damage surveys and vulnerability estimates. Traditional buildings were found to be less resistant to tephra loading than non-traditional buildings, although there was variation in resistance within each building type. For example, some traditional buildings collapsed under ∼40 mm thickness while others sustained no damage when exposed to >200 mm. We attribute this to differences in the pre-eruption condition of the building and the implementation of mitigation strategies. Mitigation strategies included covering thatched roofs with tarpaulins, which helped shed tephra and consequently reduced loading, and providing an internal prop to the main roof beam, which aided structural resistance. As is typical of post-event building damage surveys, we had limited time and access to the exposed communities, and we note the limitations this had for our findings. Our results contribute to the limited empirical data available for tephra fall building damage and can be used to calibrate existing fragility functions, improving our evidence base for forecasting future impacts for similar construction types globally.

When disasters occur, rapid impact assessments are required to direct response priorities, support in-country efforts and inform the mobilisation of aid. The 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, and the resulting atmospheric shockwave, ashfall, underwater mass disturbance and tsunami, caused substantial impacts across the Kingdom of Tonga. Volcanic impacts of the scale observed after the eruption are rare, necessitating a reliance on international advice and assistance. The situation was complicated by the loss of Tonga’s international submarine fibreoptic cable, causing a complete loss of communications for approximately 20 days, along with border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A need emerged for a rapid remote volcanic impact assessment and provision of specialist advice to help inform the response of international partners. Here we present a novel methodology for conducting rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessments, conducted over a 10-day period following the eruption. We used three different hazard models for ashfall thickness across the main island of Tongatapu and available asset information and vulnerability functions for buildings, agriculture, electricity networks, water supply and roads, to provide initial estimates of losses due to ashfall from the 15 January eruption. For buildings, we estimated losses, both as total losses and as percentages of the total replacement cost of buildings on Tongatapu. For agriculture, we made probabilistic estimates of production losses for three different crop classes. For ashfall cleanup, we estimated ranges of ashfall volumes requiring cleanup from road surfaces and roofs. For water supply, electricity networks and roads, our analysis was limited to assessing the exposure of important assets to ashfall, as we had insufficient information on system configurations to take the analysis further. Key constraints to our analysis were the limited nature of critical infrastructure asset inventories, and the lack of volcanic vulnerability models for tropical regions including Pacific Island nations. Key steps towards iteratively improving rapid remote impacts assessments will include developing vulnerability functions for tropical environments, including Pacific islands, as well as ground-truthing estimated losses from remote approaches against in-person impact assessment campaigns.

Volcanic eruptions can cause significant impacts on communities and infrastructure. There is an increasing need for effective risk assessments to inform decision-making and minimise the impact of volcanic hazards. Vulnerability models play a crucial role in these assessments, connecting the intensity of the hazard with the elements that are exposed to it, allowing for the calculation of potential impact or risk. There has been a large increase in the number of vulnerability models being developed for volcanic risk applications, and there is now a need to identify knowledge gaps for the field to take a strategic approach moving forward. This review aims to provide a high-level overview of the current state of volcanic vulnerability modelling and identify areas for future development. We evaluated 594 vulnerability models covering a range of elements and sectors, including buildings, critical infrastructure, transportation networks, agriculture, and human vulnerability. We reviewed the types of hazard intensity metrics and impact/risk metrics used in the models, modelling methodologies, underpinning data requirements, and uncertainty characterisation. A global clearinghouse for volcanic vulnerability models would be advantageous for the volcanic risk community to identify appropriate vulnerability models quickly and efficiently for their needs. As a first step towards such a clearinghouse, we have uploaded this volcano vulnerability model compilation to a repository and encourage additions/suggestions from the community on its future development. The results of this study will contribute to the advancement of the field and provide valuable insights for future research and development in volcanic risk assessment.

New geochemical data, including Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes for whole-rock and groundmass samples, are reported for edifice-forming eruptives at Tongariro volcano, New Zealand, which span its ~ 350 ka to late Holocene history. Tongariro eruptives are medium-K basaltic-andesites to dacites (53.0–66.2 wt% SiO2) that evolved via assimilation-fractional crystallisation (AFC) processes partly or mostly in the uppermost 15 km of the crust. When ordered chronologically using a high-resolution ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar-dated eruptive stratigraphy, the compositional data show systematic 10–130 kyr cycles. Mafic replenishment events inferred from MgO values occurred at ~ 230, ~ 151, ~ 88 and ~ 56 ka and in the late Holocene, with high-MgO flank vents erupting at ~ 160, ~ 117, ~ 35 and ~ 17.5 ka. Cycles in Sm/Nd, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and Pb isotopic ratios, which are decoupled from MgO, K2O and Rb/Sr cycles, indicate periods of prolonged crustal residence of magmas from ~ 230 to ~ 100 ka and ~ 95 to ~ 30 ka. AFC modelling shows that intermediate and silicic melt compositions, with r-values between 0.1 and 1, are needed to reproduce Tongariro compositional arrays. AFC models also indicate that ~ 20% of the average Tongariro magma comprises assimilated (meta)sedimentary basement material. Locally, Tongariro and adjacent Ruapehu volcanoes attain their most crust-like ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd compositions at ~ 100 and ~ 30 ka, paralleling with zircon model-age crystallisation modes at the rhyolitic Taupō volcano ~ 50 km to the NNE. These coincidences suggest that the timing and tempo of magma assembly processes at all three volcanoes were contemporaneous and may have been tectonically influenced since at least 200 ka.

The city of Dunedin, New Zealand, is situated on the eroded remnants of an intraplate volcano. The Dunedin volcanic rocks are part of the Waipiata Volcanic Field, which at 25 Ma began as small (≤ one km³) volcanoes widely spaced through the region. Sixteen million years ago, for reasons yet unknown, a much larger (> 100 km³), more explosive concentration of volcanism initiated in shallow seas at the site of Dunedin. A new collaborative research effort is being undertaken to identify the foreshadowing conditions of intraplate volcanism, understand palaeonvironmental conditions, the eruption sequence and magmatic evolution of the region and, to better constrain hazards from faulting and landslides through a better constrained volcano-stratigraphy. This will be the first updated regional approach to mapping the Dunedin volcanic stratigraphy since the classic work of Benson in the mid-20th century. The mapping is integrating new high precision LiDAR data, geomorphology, modern physical volcanology interpretations, onshore airborne geophysics, offshore seismic and magnetic surveys into a GIS supported by GeoSciML. The mapping is being supported by petrology, new high-precision Ar-Ar geochronology, whole rock and mineral isotopic and geochemical analysis and palaeomagnetic studies. These efforts build upon the detailed and significant work already undertaken by researchers and students. Combined, these data will provide the most complete picture of Dunedin volcanism so far. The project, which is currently underway, will produce a map sheet and accompanying monograph, as well as being available as a downloadable GIS package. Numerous supporting journal articles and student theses are also anticipated. The research will be applicable to sea-rise studies, hazard modelling for faults and landslides, understanding the causes for intraplate volcanism away from subduction or rifting at plate boundaries, or mantle plumes and what drives highly variable rates of magma generation in these settings.

Fissure eruptions initiate with magma ascending and spreading through cracks in the ground that can extend for kilometres at the surface. Eruptions eventually localise to form one or a few persistent conduits and ultimately an array of discrete cones or craters. We built a new experimental apparatus to investigate the influences of fissure shape and wall-rock temperature on localisation within a volcanic fissure, and the thermal feedbacks associated with variability of these parameters. Our artificial fissure, or “Artfish,” has a slot geometry with adjustable shape and wall temperature. We can simulate both starting variability in fissure geometry and wall temperature, as well as changes in these parameters during an experiment to replicate, for example, blockage by wall-rock collapse, widening by wall-rock erosion, and warming by adjacent intrusions. We use polyethylene glycol (PEG 600) for our analogue fluid. A variable-speed pump allows for a range of fluid injection and ascent rates. Initial tests showcase the capabilities of the model and the types of data that may be acquired. Additional key features achieved include a stable and planar injection system, fluid recycling, and the use of particle tracers for monitoring flow patterns and velocities. The thermal evolution of the fluid-wall interface is quantitatively measured with thermal sensors, and the change in state of the PEG provides a clear visual indication of flow behaviour and solidification progress recorded on video. The potential experiments that can be conducted with this highly versatile model are numerous and will be used to gain a better understanding of the thermal controls on flow localisation and conduit development. This will assist hazard modellers to assess controls on eruption evolution and potentially to forecast sites where an initial fissure eruption may focus.