Graeme Chamberlin’s research while affiliated with Office for National Statistics and other places

Investigates some of the factors accounting for the above and why this position is now beginning to reverseUntil recently the private non-financial corporations sector was a fairly large net lender to the rest of the UK economy, reflecting relatively high gross savings and weaker capital investment. This article investigates some of the factors accounting for these trends and why this position is now beginning to reverse. Economic & Labour Market Review (2008) 2, 53–58; doi:10.1057/elmr.2008.106

Outlines a methodology for the above, demonstrating that apparently significant divergence can often be accounted for by coverage differencesThis article outlines a methodology for monitoring the coherence between official data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and business survey data in the form of Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI). PMI data, particularly relating to the services sector, are being increasingly used by policy-makers and analysts in forming their view of current economic trends. The article demonstrates that what may sometimes appear as significant divergence between the two sources can often be accounted for by differences between their coverage and that the underlying signals in the two approaches are generally coherent. Economic & Labour Market Review (2008) 2, 23–28; doi:10.1057/elmr.2008.72

Outlines why users may be interested in this macroeconomic statistic and possible reasons for its downward trend since 1997The household saving ratio is published quarterly as part of the UK National Accounts. This article outlines why users may be interested in this macroeconomic statistic and describes how this measure is calculated. There are a number of well-known controversies and measurement issues in defining saving, so alternative measures of the household saving ratio are also presented. Finally, possible reasons accounting for the downward trend in the UK household saving ratio since 1997 are offered. Economic & Labour Market Review (2008) 2, 55–61; doi:10.1057/elmr.2008.43

Outlines problems dealing with large numbers of variables, explaining techniques available toreduce them to more manageable proportions.Researchers and analysts now have access to increasingly large data sets. This article outlines some of the problems of dealing with alarge number of variables and explains some of the techniques that can be used to reduce the number of available indicators to a moremanageable size. This can be helpful in analysing the data or in modelling and forecasting work. Economic & Labour Market Review (2007) 1, 62–67; doi:10.1057/palgrave.elmr.1410141

Describes how principal components analysis can be used to construct an alternative estimate of GDP.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the official provider of National Accounts data in the UK. However, business surveys and financial markets also provide a large number of other possible indicators of economic activity. This article outlines how ONS might use this “external“ data in compiling gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. A study of the literature suggests that these indicators may be useful predictors of economic activity, but their forecast performance in “real time“ is not proven. As a result ONS uses this data cautiously and only as an informal guide and a check on its own statistics. As there are a large number of potential indicators, this article describes how principal components analysis can be used to construct an alternative estimate of GDP which aims to summarise the external data “view of the world“ for comparison purposes. Economic & Labour Market Review (2007) 1, 18–23; doi:10.1057/palgrave.elmr.1410120

Updates previous ONS work to improve estimates of the above, including application of OECD software taskforce methodology.This article updates previous work undertaken by the Office for National Statistics to improve estimates of software investment in the UK. The methodology recommended by the 2002 OECD Software Taskforce has been applied to produce new measures of own-account software investment. These results are presently being considered as part of the revisions process for Blue Book 2007. New work on measuring purchased software investment from firm-level microdata sources generates estimates closer to those published in the National Accounts.Economic & Labour Market Review (2007) 1, 17–28; doi:10.1057/palgrave.elmr.1410072